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Roadrunner
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Any idea how much rain there will be next Saturday? If indeed this has been correctly modeled.
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GFS 12z not making much of the rain Saturday daytime at all. Been quite consistent in this over the last few runs.
Think some places will be lucky and some unlucky. Sunday looking a lot dryer for many than a few days ago.
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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Ec op pushes euro heights nw run by run sat/sun
cross model agreement now that the trough to our ne won’t actually connect with the cut off feature to our sw until much later in the weekend which could mean that it won’t happen at all.
Good news that. The link up would presumably have produced the high precip totals that were touted 24 hours or so ago on the models. Links in well to the more fragmented showers now showing. As long as it keeps going this way reducing the rainfall run on run I'm all good with that, like Skeikhy!
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Amazing that we still can't nail down where the convergence point will be on Saturday. What is clear to me though is the amount of rain does seem to be lessening which is good news. No doubt there will be some areas that fair better than others.
Another stupid question - why would the rain risk / amount be lessening as we move closer to Saturday? Is it that the models always overdo this type of scenario?
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From my untrained eye almost all models have moved Saturday & Sunday's rain South, almost run on run. It is also not as intense. This may of course correct and change but I am definitely seeing a pattern develop here over the last day or so.
They could all be completely wrong of course due to the pretty extreme set up but I'm fine with sending all the wet stuff to France.
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ICON 6z moves the rain band south again at 12pm on Saturday and is not as intense. Rain almost non existant for Sunday too. I love the ICON.
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1 hour ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:
Just noticed the BBC weather app for Midlands at the weekend. It starts raining at 08:00 Saturday and doesn't stop until 18:00 Sunday. You really couldn't make this up.
I agree. That app makes it look horrendous. As others have said however, it is an incredibly poor app. I find the Met Office one the best but all a bit hit and miss really. Hoping it's just showers at worst and it will fragment but as you say, you really couldn't make it up.
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37 minutes ago, slater said:
Work all week in summer , then you get weekends off and the weather like this before back to sunny skys come Monday….
I feel your pain. It's like a sick joke isn't it.
Different set up I know but leading up to the jubilee weekend, I obsessed over looking at the weather apps as we were camping - every single one got it wrong for where I was and hardly any of the rain forecast came to pass. Not saying this will be the same but you never know. Even at T-1 the forecast can be wrong.
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I do wonder if there is potential for everything to shift north for Saturday as Man With Beard alludes to. Would be great to have a hot and sunny weekend day to make the most of this spell, even if the rain eventually comes Saturday night.
Would hate to have to forecast this - BBC and Met apps are all over the place for Saturday and Sunday!
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Well Friday at least looks to be a scorcher for many.
Is it too much to ask that any rain falls at night please an Saturday
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Can I ask a stupid question to the more knowledgeable please. The convergence zone where this rain is coming from on Saturday / Sunday - what needs to happen ideally for this to be either toned down or moved into the channel / let France have it? Is this even possible?
Weekend plans are once again in jeopardy tis all - I'll be in Oxfordshire.
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Spot the weekend. Yep, that'll be about right. Absolute joke.
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2 hours ago, Azazel said:
Yeah maybe, but there would be nothing more depressing than having to retreat to our tents at 8pm when heavy cold rain arrives.
It's so depressing isn't it. We left our campsite a day early over the jubilee weekend due to rain risk. Always the way - nice during the week and rubbish weekend. You couldn't make it up. It drives me insane! Hopefully any rain won't be too bad but BBC app has rain most of the day Saturday where I'll be in Oxfordshire.
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Anyone care to take a punt on where the rain band will be on Saturday?
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I know this is from a weather app and I know this is likely to change but I find it incredibly frustrating that this is possible on Saturday when the working week leading to it has been beautiful. It's almost as if the weather gods know it's a weekend! Hopefully would only be showers though and still feel pleasant when the sun comes out.
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I love seeing records broken and all that extreme weather stuff but seeing as I'm playing golf Friday, Saturday and Sunday in Oxfordshire, hitting 30+ degrees each day wouldn't be pleasant at all! Decent enough temperatures forecast in my opinion however after the plume into the weekend for where I'll be and mainly dry too. Certainly no wash out.
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I wonder if this heat could last into Sunday too, and not even properly leave the SE before another shot.
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If this goes out as fast as hinted, what can we expect on Sunday 19th? Washout or just cooler?
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1 hour ago, Azazel said:
If it could just nudge the heat into the weekend that will be the second year running where I’ve picked the perfect date for camping
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That would be bloody hot in a tent in 30+ degree heat!
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I'm not sure I believe any output at the moment. Just got back from a weekend camping in Winchester where I have to say we were very lucky with the weather. Yes, we had a few showers at night but overall the weather was pretty hot at times, especially Thursday and Friday. Experienced none of the doomsday scenarios some alluded to last week and, certainly where I was anyway, was overall a pretty decent few days. Tent packed away in the dry and no need to re-erect at home which was brilliant!
GFS hasn't covered itself in glory at all of late (latest 12z is shocking BTW) but then again no model has been a front runner for me. Having visited Stonehenge at the weekend, I've a new found belief that the solstice and before will be fine. No scientific evidence for this however, just my guess. I look at it like this - I've got as much chance of being right than the models do 2 weeks down the line!
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Wow. Some seriously awful output this evening but although I was about to throw in the towel, as Scorcher reminds us above - it's only Wednesday. The models are flip flopping around so much I'm surprised everyone can keep up. The Meto app looked pretty good for the weekend pre the 12z and now looks like armageddon for the S/SE.
I know very little about the intricacies of model output evaluation,but what I can say with almost 100% certainly is that it won't transpire exactly as per the pictures above - it never does! Yes, could be worse but I don't see how it could be much worse!
Not lookin forward to taking down a tent in torrential rain on Sunday however if that is what we get. I do however need a huge dollop of @jon snow's optimism!
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I may be wrong but with each run for Sunday, morning at least, the trough is being corrected southwards. A few more shunts and the whole South may stay more or less dry.
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4 minutes ago, Scorcher said:
Someone earlier alluded to the fact that these shallow troughs often end up further south than originally modelled as we get closer to the time- I can't remember who it was.
Evidence that this may now be happening- with the GFS 18Z showing very little precipitation for Saturday anywhere in the UK.
Yes indeed. Baby steps as I mentioned earlier. Small changes and suddenly Saturday and Sunday remain dry and feeling rather pleasant. Let's hope this correction south continues over the next few runs. Let France have it!
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I would not want to be the forecaster over the next few days. So much at stake for people planning events, breaks etc. However, as has been said, Met is currently sticking to its guns and certainly not entertaining the GFS going off on one.
Even the Met Office app has updated for the location I'll be in and paints an improving picture for the weekend days (yes, it's an app I know but something or someone is feeding it data and that data has changed). Intriguing and frustrating in equal measures. Is it too late for a plume?!
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Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Having been a member here since 2006 and a lurker since before then, I have now trained myself not to get up or down with each model run. Plenty of time yet for things to get better, or worse but remember, it's only weather!
Myself and @nick sussex remember the BBC snow watch days with Bill Farkin and his grebes - that was painful! PS Nick keep the prozac order on hold - we're not there yet!