Roadrunner
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Posts posted by Roadrunner
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Cheers Knocker. Call me a pessimist but it has gone the way of the pear so many times it's pretty par for the course (excuse the pun). I remember the Queens jubilee weekend - yep, playing golf that weekend at Hanbury Manor. Torrential!
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I must have done something wrong in a previous life. We always have a golf weekend in Essex for 2 days in June and next weekend (13th / 14th) is this year's. For the last 4 years running we've managed to pick the weekend where there has been rain when weekends either side have been dry. That's all I'm asking for - DRY! Looking at the latest model output, although not set in stone by any means, it looks like we may get a bit of rain next weekend. Can anyone allay my fears?
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Well personally I don't want any lying snow come next Friday as supposed to be playing golf in Brentwood! After that it can do what it wants.
Seeing as next Friday is 24 years almost to the day of the great easterly of 1991,i wonder how today's models would have handled the run up to that historic event.
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I must admit, I had higher hopes for this winter and followed the OPI thread and snow and ice thread with vigour leading up to winter. That's not to admit defeat just yet but I do always hold out hope for another February 1991 scenario.
I remember that period so well and that massive easterly that swept in and created chaos. I remember watching that now famous Ian McCaskil forecast and now have it saved as a favourite in Youtube. I remember walking 3 miles to work in thick snow while a penetrating cold and blizzard made it feel more akin to the north pole.
I would love for my kids to experience snow to that degree but sadly that may not come to pass this winter. Beginning to think that not buying that sledge from Costco wasn't such a bad idea after all...
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I do despair sometimes. What is it the more experienced posters say (JH, SM, NS, TEITS to name but a few)? Get the cold in first, worry about specifics, ie snow, later.
It's Friday - it's getting colder - snow and disturbances sometimes are a T0 forecast. Sit back and enjoy the ride, it's only weather and I for one have not waxed down the kid's sledge for nothing.
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Question for the more knowledgeable eg. Our resident easterly expert Dave (TEITS) or someone else with experience - although not guaranteed or easily predicted perhaps in such situations, but from experience is it more likely that the trough will sink into Europe next week and allow an easterly flow? Just trying to understand what would normally be expected to happen in this sort of scenario.
Cheers.
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Quick question. Are the models showing a clear evening on Christmas Eve? Am hoping skys will be clear about 5:30pm so the kids can catch a glimpse of the ISS (doubling as Santa's sleigh!) over south Essex.
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You can smell something is afoot when there is over 400 people viewing the model thread at 2.30pm.
Eyes down for the 12z suite soon. Netweather is awesome and thanks to all involved behind the scenes that keep this great site up and running.
PS Am I the only one who watches model runs through your fingers when things are looking promising?
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Apologies for the standard of picture but leading on from how badly the models are handling this weekend, see attached picture. Fairly self explanatory and yes, I know, very hard if not impossibleto nail within hours let alone this far out, but does give an indication of how volatile the situation is in my opinion and how very quickly things change run to run.
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More in hope than expectation, is there a chance this low for the weekend is being modelled too far north and will miss us and head into France? I know this was being muted a while back. Has anyone experienced this kind of set up before?
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Just desperate for this weekend not to be a washout. Typical the breakdown is occurring this week and couldn't wait a few more days but that's the weather I guess. Models keep pushing things back as suggested a few posts back so here's hoping any rain will be in the form of showers. Question: leading on from what John said about rainfall totals, how reliable are the GFS ones from weather online? Good indication or to be taken with a pinch of salt? Changes every run, obviously.
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Watching this breakdown with interest. GFS rainfall charts changing every model run (as you would expect!). Is there a chance the lows for the weekend will dive south too CS? Need it to be dry for Chelmsford area Saturday and Sunday due to golf!
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Over on the model thread it's been stated that the breakdown will come at the end of next week. Typical this happens for the Glastonbury goers but from an IMBY perspective this is not good news for me either as I have a golf weekend in Essex Saturday and Sunday.
Looking at the GFS precipitation charts there does not look to be tonnes of rain around though for the weekend (unless I'm reading things wrong). Would anyone with a bit of knowledge care to make a forecast for Essex and SE for next weekend please?
From a hoping to be dry golfer.
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Where is Glacier Point this winter? His expertise re the models and all things weather really added to this thread.
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Amateur question re the models. Does anyone follow the model output in the area for, say, areas around the great lakes? I am just curious as to whether they have all the model drama we have in this country or whether their model watching is much less up and down.
While I realise that we are an island and a million other factors make us and for example Toronto different, would a model watcher in the US be able to say with certainty at the range we are looking at that moment that 'x' will be happening a week in advance I. E. The recent big freeze over there? Did GFS Nail that 10 days before with very little wobbles?
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How much longer is this supposed to last? Can't check radar as on phone.
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Snowing hard here and settling. Sky signal gone.
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Officially registering 10cm of snow here just outside Romford.
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Was outside having a cigarette just now watching the snow fall and a guy aged about 30 walked past in a onesie with a Man Utd hat on. I had an overwhelming desire to pelt the idiot with snowballs for those 2 reasons alone.
Good to see Torres is still cr*p with a new haircut.
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Heaviest snow of the day so far here. Wish the wind would switch to easterly now as huge amounts of snow from east.
Latest pic:
Spurs game ON. COYS!
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Anyone know of any webcams in northern France we can look at?
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7 on the Murr scale here.
Does anyone think we'll get the 50p flakes?
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Youll get beat so hope its called off
Possibly! Typical Spurs to beat em at Old Trafford then lose at WHL.
Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Apologies for the question, still learning. Am I right in saying that any rain next weekend in the SE would be in the form of showers rather than frontal rainfall (as currently modelled of course, not that all are in agreement!).
Anyone brave enough to make a forecast would be appreciated - have 27 blokes asking if they need to pack waterproofs for golf!