Magadan
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Posts posted by Magadan
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Yes, the locals here are saying this winter is milder than usual, but we've had approximately 8 weeks of snow on the ground thanks to an unusually heavy snowfall in early November, but when the locals call this "mild" it would be considered epic cold by UK standards.
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Another thing I have noticed living in Latvia is glaciated snow and patches of ice that kids can slide on. Back in my childhood in Northern Ireland and even into my teens, children used to make slides on the icy pavements; it seems that's another thing of the past for most of the British Isles, sad to say.
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I haven't posted on here for something like 5-6 years, but continued to lurk all that time. But this is a subject close to my heart and was a contributory factor in agreeing to my wife's pleas to move to Latvia (her own motives were medical). I am now experiencing my first "real" winter in a long, long time and boy, it feels good. It snows here pretty much as frequently as it rains at home.
Anyway, does anyone subscribe to the theory that UK winters post WW2 until the late 1970s / early 1980s were cooler because of the debris kicked up by WW2? I have heard that idea, but am naturally more inclined to think it has to do with sun activity.
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If you don't understand the term bust look it up in a dictionary.
:)The first predicted storm for Dec 6th did actually show up for a while before being zapped by the models. So that's a miss. The 13th as Rodger says didn't go to plan which is also a miss. Cold spell over all correct. They maybe a hit on the 28th which all depends on how far the mild push gets.
Somebody else was on here was using the same method a year ago on here and had a very high hit rate. Can't remember who but they don't seem to post anymore.
The main problem is if you put in dates and the storms don't happen it does mean your predictions are wrong.
Overall they haven't done any worse than the met office who've also struggled to predict heavy snowfall despite making the call at short notice.
You mean the Met Office was nowcasting whereas these chaps were predicting it weeks in advance.
Personally I don't give a toss about when a storm is meant to blow through. It's LRFs that are important, i.e., trends for the various seasons. Farmers & agribusinesses need the latter, wedding planners and Morris dancers need the former.
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I think the answer is fairly complex. Fred and I are independent researchers, there is no corporate structure, and we both have full-time situations (employment in his case, not dying in my case). There's a story buried in all this somewhere but it probably gets interwoven with other, less easily defined stories like the politics of the meteorological community in the recent and not so recent past.
I don't know how Fred feels, but I feel like I am sleepwalking to some unknown end point of an entirely irrational life journey in which I simultaneously proved a difficult to accept theory and got ostracized by the mainstream and found all sorts of fulfilment in life anyway. I should be a character in a Samuel Beckett novel rather than an actual living human being, perhaps.
Anyway, the forecast is what it is. And so is the situation. We are, of course, free to do our own investing. I just made a hundred bucks on a weather bet. I'm not destitute, but I'm tired of knocking on doors that cannot be opened. It's for a younger person now, I am more concerned with getting all the data and theoretical files in order, so that I can leave them to the appropriate people in a few years (maximum). I don't plan to be doing this after about 2013.
Only addressing this now - busy with a nasty baby. All I'm thinking is, now that Asia wants to eat meat and has a growing economy to pay for it, and as a result there is a new and rapidly growing commodities bubble, your level of seasonal trend forecasting - which frankly has blown me away with its accuracy this year - would be worth its weight in gold to these people. But you can't get it to market because mainstream prefers to faff about with computer models using dumbed down non-linear equations fed with erratic and inconsistent data. Well, the winter still has a fair bit to run and I'll be watching this closely, but for now I can tentatively say this offers the prospect of the best agricultural grade LRF available to anyone anywhere from what I've seen and that means you should be able to capitalise on that. That's me speaking as a "rain-maker" for regulated and non-regulated investment syndicates / funds in the UK, albeit my field is property rather than new / innovative weather forecasting techniques!
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The Dec forecast bar the cold is effectively bust which everybody misjudged here over severity. I do need reminding whether the 13th snow event turned up or not. I'm pretty sure it didn't. All eyes on Jan.
Interesting GP's thoughts and Blasts and Rodger seem pretty similar for Jan while CFS goes for mild on the last run.
Speak for your own back yard, was not the case here.
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Disappointed there's no reply to my post yet...
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Don't know about the humour police, this thread could use a few laughs.
Readers should understand that while this was posted mid-November, the text was written back in late October or maybe the first of November during that really warm period and I was looking at output showing massive cooling in several waves around late November, 6 and 13 Dec and then the storm period for the full moon 20-21 Dec. What we work with at that long time range is not a series of maps (although we could draw them up) but index values. We just don't have the time or the resources to try to put together maps on a continental scale. Fred has full-time employment and I have more time but a lot of other interests and thirty years of continuous rejection by the authorities in this field. Were that not the case, perhaps a more detailed product would be possible.
The above is just meant to place our forecast and whatever achievement it represents in context. We could do better with more resources. On the other hand, maybe we would have coasted and stopped trying as hard. But to look at specifics like "where's the snow here" questions, in broad general terms, the forecast seems to be verifying, there was a massive cold outbreak, a lot of places got snow, and even on the 6th there was heavy snow in parts of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Ireland (okay, the forecast here is for the UK but I'm out on the same limb in Ireland). Probably it's true to say that the earlier cold was so massive and well-entrenched that a reload around the 6th as suggested in the index values was more of a consolidation, so there wasn't that much of an organized push of cold air moving into most parts of the UK, it was already there (the earlier arrival wasn't surprising but probably if I had tried to do daily forecasts from the research data there might have been a milder interval between late-end of November and now).
I think Fred's on the right track in saying look out for the period before Christmas, because we're seeing fairly consistent model signals of a strong arctic push just before the high energy peak of the 20-21 Dec period, and I know from doing this many years that models don't pick up entirely on energy peaks, so you have to blend the reliable aspects of the models with the more robust aspects of the research data to get an idea of what's coming in ten to fifteen days. If that cold outbreak is a reliable signal, two things come into play. The retrograde index is highest right there, and that implies the Atlantic high being pulled away to the northwest very rapidly. And the energy peak follows, which means that a very plausible outcome would be for an explosive deepening of low pressure that might be hanging around the remnants of the frontal boundary to the southwest. This is going to be a very interesting period for weather watchers in the UK and Ireland, with all the ingredients in place for major winter storm development -- and in a season that has already established that it isn't playing hard to get. Reality always has unforeseen details and wrinkles compared to any theoretical predictive approach like ours, but at least we're seeing the right shape in general through the darkened glass.
And I have to say, it's always encouraging to hear that our efforts have helped somebody plan effectively, that's what this is all about, really.
So mainstream "received wisdom" has rejected your methodology? I'm just wondering, what would it take for you two chaps to get taken more seriously? With wealthy investors making a flight to safety in the form of commodities (esp. grains and other staples for the emerging Asian markets), surely there is a need for this exceptional quality of long range forecasting?
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Not Looking so good on the cfs Today
I wouldn't worry. These models are junk beyond a few days, IMHO. Better to go by overall trends and pin your hopes on that than impossible-to-achieve accuracy from models. And from what I've read so far, the trend is looking good for a cold, cold winter.
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i know its f1 but if this comes should be plenty of the white stuff next week!!!
FI has zero credibility to me any more. I'm now at the point of looking at models as being worthless beyond very, very short time frames. Looking for a consensual truth in the ensembles is like a herd of sheep expecting strength in huddled, collective weakness when faced with a wolf. I'd much rather see historical-statistical modelling that takes into account solar activity, volcanic activity and other wider factors, than the current setup of fragmented data samples pumped into simplified model algorithms developed over 2 decades of mildness.
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Been snowing heavily here since approx 9am... And sticking too, thanks to a sharp frost overnight. Really wasn't expecting this, having been so caught up in the "Pest from the West" versus the "Beast from the East" tussle on the models.
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Snowing heavily here for approx 30 mins.
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Much is made by the mildies-cum-anti-coldies of the plus side of milder weather, i.e., lower heating bills, better driving conditions, fewer pensioners in casualty, etc., but that's just one side of the story. Some people, like me, have health issues that are eased by colder weather, oddly enough. Chiefly, I sleep much better in the cold spells than I do in mild weather because I have a bizarre overheating problem in my body related (I suspect) to bad circulation, even though I'd be above average fitness wise. My wife can't even share the same room as me any more as she needs to be insanely warm. Of course, summer time for me is torment, with a fan pointed at the bed and earplugs in to cut out the noise, as the sweat pours out of me. I often have to keep a water spray on hand to cool my legs down... I basically sleep best in a room temperature of around 1-3 C to be comfortable, and with a duvet to be snug(ish) in with the option of sticking my limbs out for the occasional 15-20 minutes throughout the night to cool down again. So yes, my nickname is "The Iceman" and that's one reason why I so love the cold and hate mildness, and get so frustrated at people being all overjoyed at yet more mild weather, as if this country isn't mild enough.
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Well the 0Zs have confirmed the worst fears, with some horrific charts around this morning for cold fans - although obviously good news if you like the Atlantic murk.
As S4lancia says, this pattern will be a mimimum of two weeks and that takes us into the second half of Feb. A snow cover here this morning and for anyone else who has snow, make the most of it !
Worst fears indeed. The turnaround in the models at this stage just makes such a mockery of all that went before, so that's me finished with model watching, at least until a new methodology comes along that's actually consistent. Maybe throwing chicken entrails against the wall or something.
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Moderate snow shower here 3 hours ago (only posting it now), lying on ground, cars, etc. Nothing to write home about, but the roads are white with it.
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Well Fred
If I forecast a Severe Winty Winter every year like Piers and that laminate floor Bloke then I am sure I would hit the nail on the head at least once and then cover myself in glory
Of course you would, but to be fair to them they've provided a rationale for their predictions rather than towing the line dictated to them by the politicians who want global warming to be real so that they can tax everyone to death and cede more power to a supranational government.
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It's but the tip of the iceberg, according to this excellent article of yesterday which implicates the US government as well: http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/01/climategate_cru_was_but_the_ti.html
(Thanks to Joe B'stardi's blog for the link).
PS - maybe this requires it's own new thread? It's relevant to this one but is a biggie in its own right. Mods can decide!
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Interesting reading the posts and debate (I prefer debate to argument) going on in this discussion thread today.
I may be at risk of sounding like a real stick in the mud but there is a technical discussion thread on this board and I do wonder if the type of thread could be expanded upon...i.e Technical discussion stratospheric warming...technical teleconnections....technical physics etc etc.
Model output discussion is for discussing that I suppose and people will always have their certain model. BUT I think model dscussion could have its own section with the technical ones and then guides and links to all the models...netweather...wetterzentrale and all. I know they exist, but to have it all in one consolodated place would be hugely helpful to me in looking at things when away rom work.
Moving to the thread i think bias will always come in to peoples model review. Of the few posts I make in the technical thread I try to be objective I post rarely because I feel technically midget compared to the likes of some. I get the physics and dare i say it I get most the maths, but the experience and reading the models is where I am not so good and I hate to say it but Im petrified of making a wrong post...exemplified when people then quote your wrong post in their footers....so I tend to stay very quiet (my membership since 06 and lack of posts exemplifying this). I do however make reasonable contribution to the ski thread mainly because its 'abroad' and its more on a 1 to 1 with Julian who posts in there.
It sounds crazy this but i really think if netweather.tv wants the enthusiasm to remain then writing some very good guides to models, charts and meteorology in general would be good place...they could be beginner to advanced and cover all facets of a main meteorology book that an academic may write. There are some exceptionally talented people on here and if a good learning section could be produced I think everyone would understand he charts much better and look at the predictions (which is what they are) much more objectively.
On that basis I understand John H's sentiments entirely (and perhaps we are not used to them as he has more time to see the pain of poor posts now he is notesenior forecaster).
Im going to struggle to review the models so I am going to say this:
The prediction was for models to do badly this week and this remains the case, a check on local forecasts reveals different temps and outputs every time you visit the page. The Meto are consistantly saying it will remain cold...at work... which in my eyes signals ideas they havethat their model (and the ones they review) are perhap over doing the mild.
J
Great idea re the model guides... It would be a real help to getting novices up to speed on the more technical matters.
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Chaps, 2 years ago I spent the best part of a month in Kyrgyzstan (Jan & Feb) and while for the most part the cold was on a level way beyond anything I've ever known in the UK (you know, spit from an upstairs window and it hits the ground solid), there was nonetheless some drippy conditions during the daylight hours for a few days. I think our perceptions of a "proper" cold winter are continuous below freezing conditions when in fact that's not always the case even in seriously cold continental climates.
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An absolute plastering of wet, slushy snow today. But looking towards the east the sky seems more rainy (i.e. grey) rather than the white sky of the west.
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Snowing moderately here now for around 20 minutes, lying well on the ground despite some light sleety rain overnight.
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Very light rain / sleet here (see? no ramping!) just now, just after a light ground frost formed in some patches.
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This is a cold winter, not a mere "cold snap" and I'm glad people are starting to see the error of the models' ways. Look at how this thing is set up across the entire northern hemisphere, look at the bigger picture re the sun and adjust expectations accordingly, rather than deferring to models developed over 20 years or so of mild winters.
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fantastic model output this evening although im sure those responsible for gritting our roads won't agree!
You know I said a few days ago that you would be better off looking at the archives of previous cold spells than using the models. Based on this evenings runs that appears very true because what we're seeing in the 12Zs occured during those classic winters.
If the ECM verified its only a case of when the block goes to Greenland rather than if!
Now you're talking. For me, that's the only way to go.
:)
Snow lover
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I have loved snow all my life and accordingly endured annual despair at our mild winters. Thus it was a deciding factor when I agreed to my wife's request back in 2016 to move to Latvia (she's Russian and we needed medical treatment for our kids at some of the clinics in Riga).
But have you ever heard the saying, "too much of a good thing is a bad thing"?
Right now I am ready to emigrate to Marbella, let's put it that way. The highest temperature forecast here for the next week is -6C, with night time lows of -22C forecast and really, truly, madly, deeply, I have had enough.