Lakes Tom
-
Posts
82 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Lakes Tom
-
-
Well well well my forecast is holding firm and thaw soon to take place. Sun coming out north leeds and temp rocketing up!! Oh dear oh dear.
Why do you bother posting on this site? Your posts are often misinformed and ridiculously pessimistic! The Models for the last 24 hours have always showed the precipitation to pass through later on this afternoon and yes, not to be as heavy as further West (the radar shows the precipitation is currently losing some intensity), but moderate falls will still occur!
-
TEITS posted this on the model outlook forum, looks a bit better from an IMBY perspective
This ties in nicely with the GFS 06Z, showing the low to be slightly more progressive allowing Yorkshire to get in on the action. This is actually quite a big upgrade compared to the 0Zs which showed the front stalling and petering out South and West of Yorkshire!
-
GFS 06Z precipitation charts, although not the most reliable, show Friday's front pushing further East and getting Yorkshire in on the action! Certainly a step in the right direction and lets hope the other models at 12z follow!
-
How many times have we seen the GFS over cook these Atlantic lows?! I don't buy the GFS solution with a 945mb low! With less energy in the Atlantic we would see an evolution more in line with the UKMO. The UKMO has has shown an undercut consistently now for the last 3 runs. Surely this can't continue to be disregarded as a possible solution! This has got Feb 1947 written all over it!
-
Starting to snow lightly here.
We'll have to agree to disagree there as I think Leeds does really well for snow and I'm sure Cheese Rice/summer blizzard can attest. Though in the city centre it's always less than the suburbs.
Agreed, Leeds city centre is awful for snow - elevated areas such as Cookridge etc do much better. But areas such as Huddersfield and Halifax do far better out of a North Westerly and areas of East Yorkshire such as the North York moors do much better than us in a Northerly or North Easterly. Leeds does however, do pretty well in an Easterly as per the models later on next week!
-
Those NAE chart looks great! As do the UKMO and ECM etc ....Lots of precipitation and falling as snow! Yorkshire is a prime spot for this upcoming cold. Lots of precipitation and on the right side of the upper air temperatures. From an IMBY point of view, Leeds generally does pretty poor for snow apart from in an Easterly - too far inland from a Northerly or North Easterly and the wrong side of the Pennines from a North Westerly. The models show a variety of opportunities for snowfall from Sunday through to Thursday and with the cold uppers, I fully expect us to be the right side of marginal each time!Post wherever you feel comfortable.
Hm, NAE looking iffy now for most of this region, looks alright for more western areas
Getting a bit concerned now.
-
Give or take yes. If you read the strat thread you will know that the displacement SSW has been modeled well from inception in the far reaches of FI right down to occurrence (probably Sunday). It is not the initial SSW though that will lead to the disrupted vortex - more the continued warming and split.
Many thanks for the info Chionomaniac!
-
Is the stratosphere more stable and hence easier to model than the troposphere? SSW events appear to be talked about with some confidence many days down the line, whereas the tropospheric weather predictions chop and change daily.
-
UkMO 12z and GEM 0Z looking extremely similar for Christmas day 12pm. The GEM Oz evolves into a significant northerly flow.......
-
Just left the tops of Bradford (1000ft) in rain and hit snow in Leeds City centre (50ft), not often you can say that! Colder uppers slowly starting to head west!
Edit - Interestingly it was 0.5 C in Bradford and 1.5 C in Leeds - just goes to show how surface temps are not the most important variable in producing snow!
-
Indeed, we always seem to remain snow free.
That's nonsense - Halifax and moreover, hillier areas of Huddersfield receive more snow than anywhere else in West Yorkshire. Try living in Leeds!!
Edit - Beat me to it Aaron!
-
You agree with the Meto
Seriously though, the ECM and GFS has had it much further North. The GFS was spot on with todays weather, so why will it be wrong in a few days time? The metoffice are being cautious as there is a lot of uncertainity, but i can honestly say now that i don't expect the low pressure to sink any further south, i expect it even further North come the 12z.
lewis
Lewis, the 18z and 0Z has the lows much further south than the 6z...Think it's a bit early to write off snow on the back of one run, when the trend is actually for the lows to head further south. No?!
Tom
-
Light snow falling for the last couple of hours in Leeds city Centre has now turned more moderate/heavy, with visibility down to less than 200 meters.
Looks awesome for us guys in the North this week. We have the chance of seeing some of the heavieast falls of snow this winter. The last 2 GFS runs and the last ECM run has us in prime position.
-
Well summed up Frosty as ever.I have to say that if you live anywhere north of the midlands up to the Boarders,it doesnt get any better if you like heavy disruptive snow according to wetter this morning.This week could be the worst spell of weather of the winter for quite a few inland areas escpecially.
I should add that areas with elevation further south are not exempt.I would be interested to here Mr Fergussons thoughts. I agree entirely with your comments. Acoording to the last two runs from the GFS and the last ECM run, Northern England is in prime position for heavy snowfall. This area looks to benefit from not only some of the heaviest precipitation from the passing lows, but also stays on the right side of upper air temps throughout the week. Obviously still open to change, but all things point to a spell of wild winter weather this week! :lol:
-
Finally, the 18z puts us out our misery, expect an Atlantic dominated run. Love cold weather, and it's a shame it's not panned out.
Ehh? T72 12Z and 18Z are almost identical. It may pan out that you are right, but not from changes you have noticed in the early phases of the 18z run...
-
Still confident this is going to bring a good dumping to parts of Yorkshire away from the coast......Look at the GFS 12z, the heavier precip was never due to arrive until later on this evening......With people reporting snow already even at lower levels, temperatures falling, dew points falling, more precip gonna start to push in from the North Sea soon, things are looking good!
-
The ensembles sum up the situation perfectly at the moment.
http://charts.netweather.tv/ensimages/ens.20100109/06/prmslCambridgeshire.png
As you can see high pressure remains close by with the mean at 1020mb.
My view is we're going to remain cold with the flow alternating between SSE/SE/ESE,ly. I can also see a big snow event for Wales/W Midlands/parts of the SW because this is the usual locations that see a stalling front. Beyond next week and at the moment I cannot see any movemenr of our HP to Greenland but instead LP systems continue to track underneath our block keeping much of the UK cold with only the SW possibly turning milder. However with these LP systems tracking underneath the block to the E there is always the chance of retrogression. I just can't see it happening this week.
Whatever happens in future model output will not change the fact that this winter will be remembered for many years. Hard to believe its only the 9th Jan!
I will finally add that the snow event this weekend into monday could be significant. This isn't due to the intensity of the snow but the sheer persistance of it. The heavier snow in the SE will move further N and affect central regions as the flow changes from a ENEly to a E,ly. I feel Monday is going to be an extreme day for much of E Anglia/Midlands/Wales/N England.
I agree entirely....I really think the amount of snow to fall from tomorrow afternoon into Monday has been underestimated. The GFS precipitation charts show moderate snow, for upto 24 hours in some parts (Midlands and Northern England look to be the favoured spots). This has been shown on the last few GFS runs....
-
Lakes Tom,
Was in Ulverston after xmas as Im from the outskirts of Barrow origianally but live and work in Leeds now.
A slight covering there but not a thing even in rural Barrow and still the same this week bar a bit of frost + ice.
Nothing compared to the 10 -12 inches at present in my garden. Leeds is far better for snow than S Cumbria
Yeah, the Furness peninsula never does that well, although Ulverston seems to do better than Barrow and further inland towards Newby Bridge seems to do a lot better. Dunno if you remember 1996 though? It was my GCSE year and we got a foot and half of snow - my school was closed for a week....Was ace at the time! (Having said that i'm a teacher now and I still think it's ace!)
-
Really think people are underestimating the amount of snow that is going to fall from tomorrow afternoon into Monday.......IF the current GFS run and last nights 18Z (didn't see the 0Z) verifies, then parts of Yorkshire (Including West and South) are in for a real pasting!
-
Winds will be coming of the north sea, in these types of situations it can make conditions very marginal for eastern areas.
...
Still snowing here
Perhaps coastal areas, but areas inland I would doubt there would be no marginality about it.
-
gfs progs the precip to be very heavy over this region on sunday, i fear my snow will be vanishing at a rate of knots....528 dam line disappeared north too?? yet the bbc talk of snow, any ideas guys?
Really wouldn't worry about the type of precipitation on Sunday. Upper air temps of -5, especially on an Easterly flow, with precipitation = Snow!
-
Really?! I'm a teacher too and I defo don't! Roll on the snow!
-
Massive upgrade for Yorkshire, especially West Yorkshire from the 18Z for Sunday/Mondays snow event. Loads more precipitation about and some potentially disruptive conditions likely to occur!
-
Light Snow in Leeds city centre now and looking ok for a bit more judging by the radar.
Guys I think we need to let go of this East West Sh#t. Too many lives have been lost already. Think of Biggy and Tupac...... RIP!!
I should add that areas with elevation further south are not exempt.I would be interested to here Mr Fergussons thoughts. 
Yorkshire & Lincolnshire Regional Discussion - January 18th 2013>
in Regional
Posted
Looking great for all but the far West of Yorkshire at the moment. Those showers are really starting to pep up now East of a line between Leeds and Sheffield! Snowing moderately in Leeds city centre now too!