jimbo36
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Posts posted by jimbo36
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15 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
Yes they are short-medium range but short range in comparison to the context of SSW events. This is to say, the warming has initiated in the past 24 hours but the trop response will be outside the scope of the shorter range modelling (for now). Ergo we have to look at the longer range products…the monthlies etc.
Generally when I refer to longer range it’s beyond 2 weeks.
Well said Crewe, absolutely nailed it there. Total respect for all your reviews and take on forecasting over the years. Patience required as we head into March, maybe even waiting till week 2 for anything wintry from this SSW
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Who needs a pub run when you've only just come back from one. Neck Oil much needed.
Do we ever learn?
Back to mild and wet by Tuesday it is then
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3 minutes ago, jamesgold said:
Yep that is true, I guess my point was that they often avoid actually saying that sort of thing even if it’s in the raw output. Maybe they think that’s more likely
Surely no more than 6 hrs based on what we've seen in recent days from the tv forecasts, no way would they be 22 hrs behind
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26 minutes ago, Matty J said:
The ICON has shifted the low further south again, which tbh is now becoming a major worry. Aware that model isn’t one of the main players but it can’t be ignored.
We see on the cusp now, surely we’re not going to be left disappointed again
Over to the GFS pub run and lets hope that doesn’t shift it south!
Surely that opens the flood gates to convective showers merging together and producing all day in SE plus would bring the colder air in earlier with snow starting Saturday night possibly
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5 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:Excuse me how is that going under?it introduces milder southwesterlies
Where are the expert views when ya need them?
Why is everyone getting het up about one model one run for a scenario that is a week away and in FI.
Stick to the T96 period and enjoy the ride to come.
Getting tired of all the drama queens and attention seekers that come out to play when things aren't going their way-
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1 hour ago, Blizzard said:
Must be stuck for some reason....
You can see the 6z and 18z ECMWF here... FWIW looks very similar to the 0z at 72 hrs....
weather model ecmwf model - europe - surface pressure [base + 72] | weatheronline
WWW.WEATHERONLINE.CO.UKWeather for UK, Ireland and the world. Sailing, Marine Weather, Weather maps, radar, satellite, climate, historic weather data, information about meteorology, reports, weather warning.Lovely. Thanks
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Anyone know why the ECMWF High Res 0z won't go beyond 000 on WXCHARTS?
Can it be viewed elsewhere?
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3 hours ago, DCee said:
But the ECM has moved towards the GFS and the GFS has stuck with the initial cold for midlands north. So I'm right in my initial analysis thankyou.
Agree with @Djdazzle, once again talking rubbish.
A proper forecaster suggests that the ECM, UKMO & GEM have been the most consistent models since the weekend for this E'ly solution, UKMO in particular - 00Z UKMO would keep the cold in place well into next week & pick of the bunch for that is the 00Z EC with potential frontal snow too.
Goofus can be taken with a pinch of salt. It's on board for now, but not going to take much notice of it going forward if it goes against the consensus again-
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Well if all the models are still showing this in 48 hours, then i'll have to set up a stormporn forum page and the first 100 members get a free box of tissues
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5.5cm here in Dorking and 10-11cm on the hills of Ranmore and Box Hill
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13 minutes ago, Surrey said:
Im with this one... Good call somewhere around the Surrey Hills..
What about leith Hill?
I'd take that as live part way up
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1 hour ago, Frosty Winter said:
Interesting, I’ve also been monitoring the extended GFS control runs recently and there has been a relatively consistent signal for northern blocking to re-establish itself by mid-February. This run is from yesterday and I’m still waiting to see today’s. Of course it may still come to nothing but it’s something to watch nonetheless.
i haven't posted for a few years after annual snow disappointments but would just like to say whilst recuperating that the 2nd image shows a nice pair of Y fronts in the centre :-)
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Waste of time in Dorking, light dusting and seemed to be stuck in the hole on the radar, anything coming near just fragments before it gets here. As Catherine Tate's Nan would say.....
Wot a load of 'ol sh!!...... -
So J9 of M25 even better then Paulo :-)
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Some great pics dude and my vote from Sweden has to be the ones i got some great pics from
1. Broken Bow, awesome light show and perfect dusk setting
2. Seymour, my first ever day with a DSLR so was well chuffed to get same pic as Dan out of the 300 i rolled off.
3. Pilger, wasn't there forthat one but looks an awesome muvva telephone boxer
Have a good tour all
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Fair comment CR, but the possible Atlantic Low Pressure system possibly heading our way this weekend is not even a remnant of 'Bertha'. If it happens at all it will be an entirely different weather system spawned out in the Atlantic due to other factors. The medias obsession with Bertha is a red herring.
Ya wrong, so wrong, it will be remnants of Bertha, even the Meto quote it as such, unless you think their chief forecaster doesn't know what he's talking about.
The remains of hurricane Bertha, over the western side of the Atlantic on Thursday morning, will come steadily towards the UK. The transition from a tropical to an extra-tropical featureis a particularly hard one to forecast with confidence, and computer models continue to differ in thelocation and intensity of the resulting depression, which is expected to pass over, or close to, the UKfrom early on Sunday. There is the potential for widespread rainfall totals of more than 50 mm and coastal gusts of over60 mph, along with large waves. However, the system may pass harmlessly to the south of the country.or spread heavy rain even further north, and the public are advised to keep up to date with warnings.
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anyone on curent tour or next tour can bring back some golden virginia tobacco for me, as given up in convinving 16yr old daughter not to smoke, so may as well get duty free!!
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Think the Daily Express forecast came last........again
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Cheers John, thought this week was bad weather wise but apart from Monday next week could be even stormier
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Hi Paul, yep remember them now, in my vodka fuelled rants, must have lost the one with dates on.Wish the non refundable deposit was made clearer, maybe it was just me not reading all the small print, but that's how i roll.Shame, as has left me feeling bitter with myself & NW
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To be honest Jim the deposits were clearly marked as non refundable on the website, and the subsequent emails - as far as I've ever seen all holiday deposits are non-refundable and from year 1 the deposits for the storm chases have been non-refundable. When someone books the deposit holds the place and is a commitment to honour that booking, if they weren't non-refundable we may as well not take a deposit at all.
This is the wording from the email confirming the tour dates back in May and the wording of the refundable nature of the early bird deposit matches that on the website - ie everyone who booked prior to knowing the dates could cancel at that point should none of the dates work for them, and we would refund the deposit then.
Regarding t-shirts, they've been done once I think, but have never been a core part of the package, and the community side of the chases have evolved in the last few years of their own accord really, so we didn't pursue the bio's etc in 2012 as we had in previous years.
Thanks for the reply Paul, but this is the email above that nobody received. I knew i was on tour 2 but had assumed the dates based on previous years.
However last month, i needed to confirm dates, but no info on either website, so i asked Ian on FB and he gave me the dates, which wasn't what i was expecting and clashed with my wife's trip to Finland, so i had to cancel.
If i'd have known the dates back in June then i would have had to cancel and the wording in the email no-one received
As part of the early-bird booking you can cancel now if none of these dates suit you. If you'd like to do this please let me by replying to this email or call on 0208 090 2490 within the next 7 days and we'll refund your deposit for you.
should have applied. I hear Cookie and Kirsty have tried numerous times to get info and payment plans set up, but got no answers to emails, others are pulling out as communications have either been poor or non existent. People can't book flights as they haven't heard what tour they are on or what the dates are.
We, as regular storm chasers, would have appreciated refunds of our deposits as a goodwill gesture based on the lack of earlier communications, non existent payment plans and lack of detail on either website.
At the moment there are a lot of very pithed off and annoyed regular storm chasers out there as we are a close knit group who communicate regularly with each other.
Regards
Jimbo
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Didn't realise others had issues with poor comms.Mine's a different problem, non refundable deposit that i didn't know about, i've had to cancel but not getting deposit back.Eventually found the statement in an attachment within an attachment on the original email for early birds.2011 comms were great for my first year, T shirts, banter, a who's who of all the chasers.Last year had none of that apart from what the chasers created themselves and this year even worse, with no reference to tour dates, had to ask Ian on Facebook, and all last years info on both websites.Not exactly a great advert for newbies.
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Best i stick to facebook, these forums are becoming pointless, no-one reads them
Model Output Discussion - Into February
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by jimbo36
And a Summer of '76 'ol lad, down our neck of the woods...
Also good to see loads of toys being piled nicely back into prams.......
Patience required, week 2 or 3 of March, make that our starting point and anything before that becomes a Brucie.....