pyrotech

Sorry to bring bad news but looks like a downgrade to me. Look at the 528 dam it runs through top of mid wales and this is will not help with direction this comes from. We need that line to move well south for snow in South West

Very likely, nothing like the Southeast have/ will have but we should get a covering from the developments off the main system which will miss us. Could people also change their profiles so it shows where you are as your current conditions post are pretty useless without us knowing where you are. I will check the 12z charts when they come out and post if i spot any signs of development towards the west of UK and put updates on. Showers seem to be getting quite potent to our east and look likely to make better progress towards us now which is a great sign that things will improve as the day goes on ( if u want snow) Mid week looks interesting too but very dificult to say if rain or snow south of M4 during wed thursday but again will post my thoughts as it develops.

Where are you Shaun?

For actual conditions a good tip is to check traffic cams i add a link for wales here http://www.traffic-wales.com/traffic Brecon Beacons has a nice bit of snow and just checked cams by Ebbw Vale and snowing fairly heavy which is North east to me. hope this helps someone with nowcasting.

Kaz its still looking good for you and South east wales. BBC seem more concerned about South East England due to main event and population there and are not concentrating on development daking place further west that is LIKELY to take place later. Bit worried about WEDNESDAY as the temps look marginal but there is another event around then that with a slight upgrade will be great for us. later in the week it still looks pretty damn good too. Today will be about watching for development in the west as the main event moves North from southeast. GFS had this further west originally but as ECM predicted it moved eastwards and the benefit of that is of course its stayed as snow not rain over England which is better than sleet/ rain but downside is less percipitation further west. So watch the radar , cross all your fingers and later tonight all eyes move towards your local lampost. Most will get atleast inch or too, development could give sustained snow in places >4 inch but will need more development than bbc are saying. But hey they are watching further east.

Snowing in cowbridge. And in north west cardiff. Light but visible and not melting. Its not much but its a positive start. Did not see it coming on radar. Was in hope the bristol channel would help lift intensity and seems to made something from nothing. Alot of lamp sort watching tonight.

In work. Fire service till 9am tomorrow so firstly thanks to all you reporting in about current conditions. I have to vieweverything on a mobile so quite hard. Although in wales we seem to have had a downgrade i am not fully convinced looking at the fax charts. I still see that main event having affect here tomorrow. At least for south and east wales maybe even parts of south west england too. Currently i see 3 inch with locally more. Positive it stays pretty cold and another possible event with warning issued for thursday. That is upgrade for us in wales. I will post a more update and full forecast when back on computer tomorrow.

excellent post. could not agree more This is exactly what i am saying and that even a drop of 1c in ocean temps around the uK will have a huge effect. Others think not but how often have we had marginal snow events that end up as sleet or rain. that weather coming over an ocean 1c lower will have a huge effect. Not that i believe 1c is all it will drop but that is what is happening right now. The initial thoughts on climate change has been called global warming, Only a fool would not have looked at what effects that would have on a worldwide scale, and what one effect of it would do to another area ( Knock on effect) your spot on with the data i have collected and i really believe that the effects we both talk about will occur in the long term Thanks again for a full and informative reply. Am i just happy as your singing from the same hymn book? No but i am sure some sceptic will say that so i just beat them too it.

yes but i have posted my climate forecast and reasons before in this thread, but you will have to read through to get that, i then gave reasons why climate change would effect our weather this year and made that forcast. I also added other things into the mix to add to the debate inc Solar cycle and lack of particles now coming off the sun - just to increase debate and play devils advocate. the forecast was to prove my point. takes a bit of guts to post that for everyone to see and stick my neck on the line, i hope some people would agree. Any way not here to argue but look forward to any debate. Enjoy your COLD COLD xmas break and have a 80s style New year

Hi all, well you can read my post that was put up on here in Dec this year 12th. Did i forcast coldest winter for 10 years, i put my neck on the line and put it in black and white, already we are seeing a sustained cold spell and this is against the met office original forcast of above avg CET January. They revised that too below recently. So if any one was totally against my climate change predictions please take another look. It takes a bit of guts to put my neck on the line and make a forcast more than two weeks ahead, however i also think i must show that i believe in what i am saying and put it down for others to see. So hopefully after this we can reset the data and look again at what climate change could mean for the UK. Have a great COLD New Year with snow to follow !

no not a very sunny summer to warm ocean. but your slightly missing the point. Firstly the most heat comes from Carribean from north atlantic drift and cycle of water to the poles. There is a definite change to its rotation and this will be the effect. Remember when flood events happened in late autumn and winter>? Well notice how that had deminished now! Our new danger time is Summer, the effect of oceanography has been well underestimated , for the UK it is paramount. Weather systems that are normal from the South west will now contain a lot more energy, picked up from the southern area of the north atlantic where the warm water has pooled. Winter will now offer a colder climate too us. My posts started before this winter and does something not seem diofferent to you this year as predicted.? If ever we get a winter that gives systems of low pressure from South east north atlantic then UK will really have problems with current water tables so high after our now wet summers. I am not having a go at anyone on here but just look at the facts. are we not right now having a cold spell not witnessed since 1980s. Will stick my neck out for you, It will get colder and winter 2008/09 will be coldest for 10 years. Morre places will see snow, snow resorts will get record season ( taking out effect of credit crunch) Ie good sustained snow cover. The data is there, it happening. i know i have my sceptics and it well against some scientific views but i can not see why they think this is not the effect that will happen. may be i am missing a major part of the puzzle, but as any good argument i have looked at everything i can and made my judgement, i believe in it ( thats why i posted) , Stand by it, and will hold my hands up if wrong. But look at data sources, look at dated posts, does it start to add up? or is it just low solar energy source? See even i will question the results when thing happen quicker than expected! But please reply, i want all constructive critism and any agreement as that is what this forum is designed for. i could be the hero - or the VILLAIN. Does anyone think maybe i am on to something? or am i talking a load of twaddle? your thoughts do count but only if you post I am a crew manager with fire service and work away so in case i do not get home before xmas have a good one what ever your views

yes i agree, but i have been using the same one for years and can see the difference showing on that, So at least the data i am using is consistant. This year the North Sea around UK and many parts of france is well below for the time of month. It might sound small (1c) but in sea temp terms that is huge. Snow much more likely with temf this continues into winter with a further drop below normal! Big problem of course is how much is this to do with the north atlantic drift? Could it be the low solar energy? or just current weather patterns. I believe from watching gulf stream changes that this pattern will continue to develop every year causing further cooling, other factors may cause a few blips on the way. I am sure someone will argue that the sea temps around UK are lower due to our current weather. IE lack of low pressure systems moving quickly through the atlantic bringing warm sea surge towards UK. But lets face it, thats what makes this allso interesting, all the different factors, disscussions and theories. I look forward to the back lash

i think its all very relevant, volcanic eruptions as well as a very low solar wind all add to a very interesting mix. On the gulf stream and the underwater currents that keep us so warm for our latitude i do not believe the whole thing will stop, i think some think i am saying that. No i can see it slowing and changing direction thats all, it will then have the effects i have said in previous messages. Currently the sea temp anomlies around UK are showing slightly below normal, got to agree one swallow does not make a summer but i think this will be an effect for this winter. i also believe this will continue over next few years. One thing worries me is that if our winters give normal rainfall then flooding could become widespread with the water table so unusualy high following summer rainfall. Thanks everyone forsuch constructive comments on this subject, the truth is nobody is 100% certain of full effects to come, but i do believe in the data i have studdied and will continue to monitor and review. May be i will get more support as time goes on or perhaps any support will deminish. The only thing for certain is something will happen change or same.

Hi Do not really think i am missing bigger picture Firstly this part of forum is only for UK and western europe, and this effects that area more than any others. Secondly i realise that long term trends are for warming globally but the effect of a slowing gulf stream or altering of its course will bring temperatures in North sea ( north west atlantic) down by more than rising air temperatures and could happen much quicker. You are correct about the storms intensifiying, both in polar regions and in mid atlantic where the water from the gulf pools. This will cause deeper low pressure and increased percipitation. For snow lovers i can see this percipitation with any Northerly winds NW NE or N bringing snow due to the cooling of north sea, any systems from south will have more heat and moisture. less positive for snow lovers is the snow is likely to lay on the ground only for a short period. Thanks for your comments and constructive thoughts, really appreciate them.

Hi all, Sorry been a while before getting back to this, had a baby boy and obviously family take precedence. But i am back now firstly the link to the gulf stream http://rads.tudelft.nl/gulfstream/anim.shtml |Jet stream is at http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/jetstream.asp The proof of snowfall falling since early eighties is there for everyone to see. The proof that last four years have seen steady slow increase is harder to show and one place in south can differ from another. Cardiff and Mid wales have seen a increase, cardiff from no snow 1996 - 2002 then snow on ground for at least afew hours every year since. I am not a scientist but looking at the data above and sea temp anomalies i see a change coming. My future forcast runs with it warmer wetter summers with devastating floods damp cool winters with a progression of heavier snowfalls, most short in duration for lying snow. slowing of gulf stream caused severe wind storms late eighties. due to pooling of warm water in atlantic. Now we are at stage where water will cool around UK , west and north and any weather from that direction will have less effects of heat from atlantic in future but from south west will be from very warm mid atlantic water with alot of percipitation. It would seem that the gulf stream effects the jet stream but this is far from proved. What ever the arguement it is clear that jet stream has changed quite dramatically this year and Gulf stream over the last 15 years. Is the cold spell forcast for end of this month part of this ( coldest 850 temp since 80s at least for October i believe) or is it due to the solar wind ( the sun is giving off less particles than anytime in last 50 years) Or is it just normal weather set up giving unusual signs. Well who Knows? Any flood today is attributed to GLOBAL WARMING. Yet we had floods through out time. Its the frequency of these events that actually will show climate change. Nature will throw many anomalies into the mix over next few years. Maybe i will be proved wrong in future, but my studdies do show that the sea temps will drop fast in winter due to changes in gulf stream. Nature will automatically put a change to correct the changes made by humans, not because it thinks and acts, but because its part of the puzzle and when for any reason the puzzle is changed it has wider effects. we may be to blame but what ever reason the sea temps are warming and air too. Ice melts, currents change, Warm water stops flowing north, Cold returns. A natural phenomenen. Mother nature is more powerful than some people give credit too. What has caused water around the UK to be so warm is the ice caused by old mother nature, take away the ice you eventually take the current of warm water, well and truly one links to other. You take away the warm water current and ice returns. The oldest and most effective thermostat in the world. Many agree with this and even more do not, I believe i can see this as the future the data screams this too me, but many in the field do not, i am not saying i must be right 100% but i think all needs to be explored. For the record i believe in my study and data, but then again i would, wouldn't i !!!!!!!

May i start the great debate. I have studdied the weather paterns and Gulf stream over many years and i believe we could have a very different future to that forcast. Over the last 25 years subtle changes have come from the gulf stream andweather patterns have coincided with the changes. May i explain The actual path has changed and the velocity has changed probably due to receding ice to our north and the excess fresh water in that northern area. This has slowed the sinking off the water and so slowing the stream in the mid 1980's this slowing increased warm waters in the northern atlantic West of Northern Europe This period of time then gave ferocious storms that battered the West of Europe and UK Warm waters give weather systems energy as well as the many other factors including the jet stream. The atlantic temperature also along with many other factors alters the Jet stream path. The following years also saw a rapid decline in snowfall at low altitudes and this continued until 2001 Since 2001 Snowfall has increased slightly at low levels in Southwest UK areas, i believe this is the start of a very slow turn. The Scenario now is that Warm waters will increase in mid atlantic as it takes longer to disipate in the north, The Far North should now cool faster in Winter months. With weather coming from south west in summer these warm waters should allow more damp , cloudy humid weather to hit UK. Flooding to now become more likely in Summer than Winter. Weather from Southwest in Winter will give mild wet weather but with any slightly Northwestern weather we should gradually increase the chance of SNOW. The question remains how far south will the warm waters stop, If far enough and stream slows considerably then we could become as cold as Canada in Winter. The Jet stream is marginally effected by Temperatures of the Atlantic and it moves further south in summer than normal on more days than normal. Of course there are so many factors to take into account, The sunspot cycle ( currently at its lowest part) and our human influence. I certainly am not saying we have not caused this damage, just that the predictions for the future may be very wrong. Cold winters will fluctuate and not nessisarilly colder year upon year but i believe the long term trend will slowly downwards, As for Summers well they will get warmer but not sunnier or nicer. Will the ice in north pole suddenly start to develop again? Any way if any one wants links to any of the above ( sunspots - space weather, Gulf Stream or jet stream) i will add them here on request. I appreciate any comment for or against my comments, hope this is a start of a interesting debate. Thanks Please can we make this forum interesting by only sensible comments so we can share thoughts on this subject.

i have started a forum on this subject. On studying weather patterns and gulf stream i have attempted to provide some evidence on this. With SST and gulf stream velocity and weather patterns over a 15 year period i have attempted to get evidence of the effects on north atlantic areas. pleas feel free to read the forum and comment. The link to forum is http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showforum=8