pyrotech

yes Lowest solar minimum for years. This has an effect on global temperatures which leads to global cooling. I know there are alot of sceptics on here but its proven fact that prolonged deep solar minimum has effects on climate and low sun spot activity sends temps lower with a time lag of a few years. We will still need the right set up to give us snow, but i believe the more years it continues the more w will head back to 80s seasons. For more on this se the climate change forum - UK & western Europe.

I agree, if coincidence that all these earthquakes with low sunspot activity or just a normal occurence as it migrates westwards its got me interested, studdied solar activity on weather / climate but never looked at geological effects. Will be taking a bit more interest on here from now on.

Funny you should say that. yes Apparently a low sun spot cycle causes an increase in earthquakes and evidence it causes cooling too. Look up Maunder mimimum or dalton minimum for the cooling effects. Try this link for increase in earthquakes etc http://www.jupitersdance.com/ This one too http://www.redicecreations.com/specialreports/sunspotcycles.html Lots of info online about this. I was sceptical but it seems to be coming more possible to me. Hard to swallow but evidence is mounting, What do other think? Lets hope no injuries or life loss, my parents landed in Hawaii an hour ago on holiday.

Quake in pacific, Vanuatu Islands with tsunami warnings and a advisory for as far away as Hawaii. TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1 NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI 1218 PM HST WED OCT 07 2009 TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII SUBJECT - TSUNAMI ADVISORY A TSUNAMI ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR THE STATE OF HAWAII EFFECTIVE AT 1217 PM HST. AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS ORIGIN TIME - 1203 PM HST 07 OCT 2009 COORDINATES - 13.0 SOUTH 166.3 EAST LOCATION - VANUATU ISLANDS MAGNITUDE - 8.0 MOMENT EVALUATION THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EXPANDING REGIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC LOCATED CLOSER TO THE EARTHQUAKE. AN EVALUATION OF THE PACIFIC WIDE TSUNAMI THREAT IS UNDERWAY AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT HAWAII COULD BE ELEVATED TO A WATCH OR WARNING STATUS. IF TSUNAMI WAVES IMPACT HAWAII THEIR ESTIMATED EARLIEST ARRIVAL TIME IS 0650 PM HST WED 07 OCT 2009 MESSAGES WILL BE ISSUED HOURLY OR SOONER AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. The solar cycle is supposd to have an effect on earthquakes and other natural disasters. I was fairly sceptical but there were forecasts of lots of earthquakes due to low sunspot cycle. whats everyone else think, coincidence again or not. added a link to some info on it but there is lots on the net http://www.jupitersdance.com/ Interesting theory and seems to be true as we are in a very low sunspot cycle.

Closest station to the storm reports the following Station 62081 UK Met Office Location: 51.000N 13.301W Conditions as of: Tue, 6 Oct 2009 10:00:00 UTC Winds: at 26.0 kt Significant Wave Height: 10.2 ft Atmospheric Pressure: 29.57 in and rising rapidly Air Temperature: 55.9 F Dew Point: 52.3 F Water Temperature: 59.2 F View Details - View History Thats the highest winds i have noticed today from that station but i think grace is probably slightly North East to that station now

Just wondered if John Holmes could give his take on the latest sat pics, does look like an eye of some sort has reformed. John do you think Grace is likly to be reforming to any degree, could she depeen now or do you think will just totally disipate? Sorry posted this same time as john posted!

Grace does appear on the latest satalite loop to be trying to reform, the definition is definitly clearer. Still no one on the BBC has said those famous words from October 1987 yet, so we are ok for now. Got the latest infrared and visible loops from http://www.floodwarn.co.uk/weather_charts.htm Think i may just have computer close by all day to watch how this pans out.

i believe that is tropical storm Grace which may cross the UK. Sustained winds about 60knts Could give us some interesting weather and much needed rain in the South East.

Can not argue with you quote 'one swallow a summer does not make', however we also need to understand that if a turnaround on global temperatures has now slowly just began, that will then lead to Artic sea ice recovering, then perhaps we should also use the quote, 'Rome was not built in a day' Firstly human intervention on this planet will obviously effect it to some degree, Co2 and other pollutants should be reduced and in doing so can only be a positive move. BUT why do we find a piece of a puzzle then sit back and think we have the full picture. The Sun has the biggest effect on our planet, Nothing else has an effect anywhere near to the effects the sun does. so with a long period of excessive solar activity would you not expect temperatures to rise, now we enter a much less active period and so we would expect temperatures to fall. Which is exactly what has happened. Sea ice minimum was just behind the solar max and sea ice recovery starts with the minimum solar activity( using the time lag ) To explain the effects of CO2 we would be looking for a drop in levels for the last two years, Howver that has not happened, CO2 ammounts have increased. The only change is too the solar cycle. For the recovery of sea ice we now need to look at the depth and length of this current minimum. Short mimimum and return to a maximum would return sea ice depletion to what we have witnessed for last decade, continued mimimum would recover the ice like has happened in the past. So whats the weather forecast for the sun? truth is everyone is guessing. Some experts predict a Maunder mimimum, others are more causioulsy predicting a Dalton mimimum. Some even say w will return to high solar activity very soon. I cover this further in another thread so will not repeat it here, but i enclude the link to it and some links to articles about our current minimum and the Dalton minimum. If some one wants to explain why sea ice has slowly recovered for last two years, and explain why if CO2 is biggest cause then please do. Its the solar cycle that is why, its happened before and will again. If you look at how much ice has recovered then it does not look impressive but are you looking acurately at what has happened? You see 300000 km2 extra ice not dissapeared this year from 07 But in 07 there was an increas in ice loss from 06 - correct? lets say again 300000 km2 less. So the turn around is much greater its the 300000 that is actual improvement plus the 300000 that was expected in the pattern. The temperatures and other factors causing that loss needed to firstly drop signifigantly to stop any further loss from 300000 - zero. Then the effects had to be more again to make an increase in sea ice. Looking at it from that perspective w really have seen an amazing turn around. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/07/28/nasa-now-saying-that-a-dalton-minimum-repeat-is-possible/ http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/09/15/arctic-sea-ice-melt-appears-to-have-turned-the-corner-for-2009/ Here is a link to netweather forum UK and Western Europe where its explained and debated did not want to put it here as this is about Sea ice but the above is releavant as its the cause of the loss and recovery http://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/48837-uk-and-north-west-europe-climate-change/page__st__34 To finish can i reiterate that CO2 is not good for our planet and we should do what we can to look after our planet, just do not think its had as much effect in this area as some people thought. The cause has been shining down on us, perhaps we were temporarily blinded by it.

The best data is from the Dalton minimum as its more recent. I include a paragraph from the article and a link to the whole article, i hope it helps. The Dalton Minimum was a period of low solar activity, named for the English meteorologist John Dalton, lasting from about 1790 to 1830.[1] Like the Maunder Minimum and Spörer Minimum, the Dalton Minimum coincided with a period of lower-than-average global temperatures. The Oberlach Station in Germany, for example, experienced a 2.0° C decline over 20 years.[2] The Year Without a Summer, in 1816, also occurred during the Dalton Minimum. The precise cause of the lower-than-average temperatures during this period is not well understood. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dalton_Minimum

Its a truely massive area, and conflicts of information. I do not use one source as i like to keep an open mind on everything so i can retrace my thoughts. Different sources maks a more balanced collection of thoughts. As i o said earlier its easy when you see the light at the end of the tunnel to run towards it, thinking its your salvation, when in fact its a high speed train heading straight at you. Any way some unbiased links for you Firstly a NASA article on the Solar Wind - its this lack of solar wind speed that allows cosmic rays to enter our orbit. http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/23sep_solarwind.htm Now about cosmic rays - another NASA article/ http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/29sep_cosmicrays.htm Sea ice chart, not conclusive but we are heading towards the 79 -2000 minimum although long way to go, but when you look at it i ask youto think about this - Has there been a huge difference ( downwards) of the CO2 that we have put into the atmosphere in last 3 years where the effects could now cause a downward trend in temps and a reversal in sea ice extent. The answer is No. Then look at the sun spot cycle and look at the historic events which show warming after a max and cooling after an effective minimum. http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png Finally the LAG and some data. These think its 3 years where i said 2 but not going to split pins over that. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/02/13/where-have-all-the-sunspots-gone/ Anyhow just take a look at it and be proactive, do not think CO2 think openly, add cO2 the one we all know about at the end, compare it and just think about the data. Quite happy to get more data if required but lets see if the puzzle looks a bit more recognisable now.

Thanks for the comments. Its always nice when someone agrees with you but equally good to have the opinions of others which can open ideas and further discussion. The problem with the climate debate is its all been done reactively instead of both proactive and reactively. This makes us try to fit pieces to the puzzle, and the pieces we find to make fit are normally the ones we are familiar with. By being proactive and searching for new ideas for why things change will lead to better understanding of all the diverse effects that accumulate together to make the big picture. Sometimes when we find something that seems to fit and sounds feasable, we allow it to grow without questioning it, without returning to the problem and double checking our work against new data, complacency perhaps. It seems some would like further proof and reliable data to look at, a very sensible approach as this again could be a piece of the puzzle fitted wrongly, perhaps even its the right pieces but in the wrong places. Anyhow i intend to add a few links here in next 24 hours, to some data so that people can digest and interpret the data themselves. This will include the LAG factor. W can then constructively discuss the findings and reliability of the source and unreliability if the case.

So where are we almost a year later? Another poor summer for most of the UK, the Southeast having done pretty good but the Northwest pretty poor. The jet stream moved Southwards and caused a washout for many areas and a North - South split became the norm. A dry September for most and again the South did best. Now Autumn is truly here as we enter head into October. So whats the winter ahead going to be like from a climate change perspective and what has changed in the last 12 months? Firstly global emmisions of CO2 have not been reduced so any change from that cause should be not to huge. What has changed is the prediction of the solar minimum ending and a return to active solar sun spot activity. The experts got this one wrong and we are currently in a very deep solar min. The effects on the climate should now really start to be felt and so i include the reasons why this is signifigant to our climate. Why now and not when the minimum started? How it effects us, and likely effects. Firstly to show the lag in time between the minimum and the resulting temperatures. The Lag is around 2 years and the best explanation for why is its an accumalative effect much like the summer and winter in the UK. The longest day in the Northern hemisphere is around 21st of June. This is not when temperatures peak that comes almost 5-6 weeks later. Same with winter, shortest day is close to christmas yet our coldest temperatures come later in january or february. Its the same with solar max and minimums, but the cycle and prossess is much bigger. The effects of solar mimimum are huge and not fully understood however we do know that solar minimum allows more cosmic rays to reach the earth. Forecasters and snow lovers look for this to try to predict a SSW Stratospheric Sudden Warming. This is a warming of the stratosphere around the north pole which sends the rotational winds from a normal anti clockwise rotation to a complexed and more random circulation ( even clockwise) This sends the Jet Stream southwards and gives the UK and many latitudes a better chance of a winter storm. A solar mimimum allows more cosmic rays from the solar system to enter the Earth's atmosphere and so causing the stratosphere to warm. We are currently in a deep solar minimum and so cosmic rays are at a very high level, also this solar minimum has gone on for longer than expected and longer than for many cycles. There have ben false starts to cycle 24, perhaps this is cycle 24 and its level of solar activity will remain unusually low throughout its complete cycle but the truth is nobody is really sure. So the way i see it all. The solar minimum is still not showing any signs of abating, even if it did today the effects of this minimum would be felt for next two winters, if the minimum continues then the effects increase. The jet throughout the last 2 years seems to have moved southwards, a likely effect from the solar minimum and high level cosmic rays. This should push more storms southwards and with them lower temperatures during the winter months. We will watch with interest the SSW this year. Temperatures have risen over the last 20 years so we have a higher starting point, so a frozen Thames is not the kind of level to be expected, but a trend to more snow is likely and an increase in artic ice levels. Longterm the effects depend on the length and depth of the solar mimimum, It is feasable that climate warming could be reveresd and a prolonged cooling take effect. Although i agree that polution and CO2 is damaging and we should make serious efforts to reduce it i would like to end this by saying that climate change or as i rather say climate shift has been around for billions of years, beyond human life. It is likely that the solar activity of the latter part of the last century has had a massive effect on our global temperatures and less caused by the other effects than many think. Cosmic rays effect Ozone levels too. Maybe this climate shift to warmer cycle was more natural than we thought and a series of prolonged solar minimums will now reverese the warming. Just a little food for thought.

Some quick but useful facts about the effects of a solar minimum Firstly to show the lag in time between the minimum and the resulting temperatures. The Lag is around 2 years and the best explanation for why is its an accumalative effect much like the summer and winter in the UK. The longest day in the Northern hemisphere is around 21st of June. This is not when temperatures peak that comes almost 5-6 weeks later. Same with winter, shortest day is close to christmas yet our coldest temperatures come later in january or february. Its the same with solar max and minimums, but the cycle and prossess is much bigger. The effects of solar mimimum are huge and not fully understood however we do know that solar minimum allows more cosmic rays to reach the earth. Forecasters and snow lovers look for this to try to predict a SSW Stratospheric Sudden Warming. This is a warming of the stratosphere around the north pole which sends the rotational winds from a normal anti clockwise rotation to a complexed and more random circulation ( even clockwise) This sends the Jet Stream southwards and gives the UK and many latitudes a better chance of a winter storm. A solar mimimum allows more cosmic rays from the solar system to enter the Earth's atmosphere and so causing the stratosphere to warm. We are currently in a deep solar minimum and so cosmic rays are at a very high level, also this solar minimum has gone on for longer than expected and longer than for many cycles. There have ben false starts to cycle 24, perhaps this is cycle 24 and its level of solar activity will remain unusually low throughout its complete cycle but the truth is nobody is really sure. So the way i see it all. The solar minimum is still not showing any signs of abating, even if it did today the effects of this minimum would be felt for next two winters, if the minimum continues then the effects increase. The jet throughout the last 2 years seems to have moved southwards, a likely effect from the solar minimum and high level cosmic rays. This should push more storms southwards and with them lower temperatures during the winter months. We will watch with interest the SSW this year. Temperatures have risen over the last 20 years so we have a higher starting point, so a frozen Thames is not the kind of level to be expected, but a trend to more snow is likely and an increase in artic ice levels. Longterm the effects depend on the length and depth of the solar mimimum, It is feasable that climate warming could be reveresd and a prolonged cooling take effect. Although i agree that polution and CO2 is damaging and we should make serious efforts to reduce it i would like to end this by saying that climate change or as i rather say climate shift has been around for billions of years, beyond human life. It is likely that the solar activity of the latter part of the last century has had a massive effect on our global temperatures and less caused by the other effects than many think. Cosmic rays effect Ozone levels too. Maybe this climate shift to warmer cycle was more natural than we thought and a series of prolonged solar minimums will now reverese the warming. Just a little food for thought.

Hi all, There have been subtle changes for many years and the effects of this are being felt accross western Europe. The June/July event seems to be quite important and alot more than a subtle change.It would be great to see more of these stumbling temporary halts to see if there is to become a pattern. Some time ago articles were postd here about likely changes Snow lovers will love it For more info read posts in the debate on the effects http://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/48837-uk-and-north-west-europe-climate-change/

Must agree with you. we are entering uncharted territory now with the solar minumum. 40+ days of NO sun spots, when 3 months ago they stated we had hit rock bottom and cycle 24 had started. ooops This cycle was well late already then and solar minumum causes global cooling, but there is a delay (FACT) Now its gone on longer and deeper, this could make this winter very interesting. I hope we stay at solar minumum much longer but lets face it if NASA get it wrong who else can predict what our sun will do. Not as predictable as they thought. This may make predicting the weather even more challenging. Perhaps the Met office would have been better off not predicting a mild winter - there again its consistant with the BBQ summer.

Hi all If anyone knows any live cam images of rivers anywhere in the uk could you post here. These may include Traffic cams that are near rivers Fishing sites with river cams Rowing clubs or just private web cams This is for a new flood site The site has lots of info for flooding and allows users to monitor conditions Your help is appreciated They are looking for moderators for the forum if any one wants to help. http://www.floodwarn.co.uk Please post webcams here or visit floodwarn and email them

Please move if in wrong area Got to agree with you if based on 3 years BUT I predicted Storms ( DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS) in the nineties followed by a gradual return to Eighties style winters. Wet humid summers ( wish we had eighties summers ) All this back in 1985 seems to be heading pretty much as expected Climate change has been around for millions of years, well before human intervention. The solar cycle has one of the biggest effects on weather and not something the models can cope with very well. No one was able to forecast this solar minimum, and there is alot of disagreement about the effects. BUT the North Atlantic drift is more predictable due tu lots of available data. It effects us in North western Europe greatly and 1/10 of a degree is huge in its effects. The great thing about the forum is that like the Models there is a difference of opinion, like the models none of us will be exactly right. Maybe some will resemble something like what happens. I respect your reply but you, assumed i made that comment on 3 year basis. NO! How the models will cope with the solar minimum and any effects i am not sure but to be honest all the Big models GFS, Ecm have struggled for weeks with anything more than 3 days. I can only see this getting worse as we head into a unpredictable winter, with maybe the solar min having effects on Snow or No Snow scenarios. As respected members whose posts i have read in the past i take note of your critism. Can i ask if any one has an opinion on which model seems to be consistantly more accurate over a 3 - 7 day period since mid July as i can not find any consistancy as they all seem to be struggling. Please post reasons why if you have found one better than others .

Could not agree more. My reasons are due to solar minimum this has an ongoing effect which starts after a normal minimum ( or max). There is a delay before the effects but we have passed timescale of normal minimum and its deeper. The chances of an 80s style winter are getting greater. ooops that will make the Met office winter forecast about as accurate as their BBQ summer one. The post before mentioned the effect on the Jet, This seems to follow the slight changes in the North Atlantic conveyor ( drift). Would make sense as the jet is caused by warm air from tropics meeting the cold air at the poles. I think this years model output discussion will be very busy with Autumnal deep storms causing major discussions as we go towards the last quarter of 2009 and then massive discussions on Snow and cold for the coming winter. On the models they really sem to all be struggling to get anything resembling accurate beyond 5 days, But it is a pretty unusual setup world wide. Lots of storms in pacific area and still waiting for first atlantic tropical storm( This time last year we had 6 named storms) Things seem to be livening up slightly it the Atlantic and this may allow the normality to effect the models giving a similarity in the fi period. At least its interesting due to its unusual behaviour but there does seem to be a pattern arising as i predicted of more like 80s winters and wetter summers.

Cardiff is having persistant moderate rain at this tim but the radar shows much heavier rain moving North. The ground in alot of areas is fairly saturated so if any torrential falls occur then problems will be likely. Hereford is one area that looks likely to get some disruption but not unusual there due to topography.

Moderate rain in Cardiff, persistant and looking at the radar looks possible for heavy too torrential for few hours later. Ground water table is already high in most areas so can see the potential for localised problems with todays weather.

The met winter forecast will be as accurate as the summer one they issued. NOT very accurate. I have to agree that global temps have risen due to climate change, but the effects will be different throughout the globe. Firstly having watched the North Atlantic Drift for years i have been saying that the small but signifigant changes within it will effect the jet stream and it has (or atleast something has). We are also still in a Solar minimum, Almost all the experts thought we would be out of it by now, there has been a few false starts but currently no sun spots for 15 days. The signifigance is a slight but again signifigant decrease in radiated heat reaching Earth ( 0.2%). Also history shows that prolonged solar minimums cause deep cold air to extend through North West Europe. Personnally i can see a winter similar to the previous with some disruption from Snow, Continuation of these factors could take us back to winters of the early Eighties. To be totally honest it is impossible to accurately predict the "weather" on the Sun and it is that which will matter most. A return to solar normality will have a huge effect, continuation of solar minimum for a few years more will give a very cold outlook. If it continues as it is now then Snow is likely for many this winter in signifigant falls, Where, when, and how much disruption will depend on weather systems. It should be a very busy winter for the NETWEATHER forums. I have gone into more detail about this effects in the climate change forum UK & WESTERN EUROPE if any one wants to read more. I know there are sceptics about both the Atlantic conveyor and sunspot cycles effects on our weather, but i am happy to discuss difference constructively.

Always the same in Cardiff ........Close but not close enough All winter we ALMOST had snow All summer we Almost have a Thunderstorm Just model watching with fingers crossed for tomorrow.

Hi all, Main reason the Thurday event is only really being shown on one model is the uncertainty with the actual track.If it moves Further North this system will be quite a good storm. It is likely to stay in the channel and just south of the UK, BUT the jet could have an effect and move it North. Except for the weekend the next 10 days is showing potential for warm moist air to head in from the South. The jet also remains South or over the UK over the same period. Some unstable air and convection to provide storms very likely with the Southeast most likely to get the best storms.

Is it sleet or snow there Jay, i am stuck in work tonight just outside in Cowbridge, but got my laptop with me. Keep us updated mate