pyrotech
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Posts posted by pyrotech
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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:
Goes to show how utterly useless the 18z & 06z are! That’s a staggering data difference on balloon data alone! 12z/00z use 1.6GB and the 06/18z use 99mb
Not really
The 06Z has the most commercial aircraft data, which is very useful for air temperature and pressure. Many flights leave USA for Europe and arrive in UK between 6am and 10am, the data they send prior to 6am is between Ireland and USA East Coast.
So its a bit like horses for courses. The fuller the all round data the better
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5 minutes ago, snowy36 said:
U got to love the GFS and GFS par because even at 108 hours they are a thousand miles difference between them.
The start data is different and the Par is showing data as slower than GFS. i.e a low by Iceland is further West etc. It also has wider -5 850mb temperatures to our West.
If you compare the two by opening two windows you can see that change. interesting that soon it will be operational and the main source. So you would suspect they will tweek it as it runs now to become more accurate. Thats of course if its not already accurate.
Anyone compared it with ensembles to see if it running close to one of those
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5 minutes ago, Had Worse said:
Amazing its a cockerel. Continues the them etc
Thats just for the build up to the French coming to Twickenham, they always send a cockerel over a ten days before
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1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:
But what does this mean ?
For me, i am more interested in the trend in those Surface pressure charts. The Azores High is trying to strengthen and push North West on the 3 runs. The original poster is more concerned with the USA low so will let them explain that. However i suggest Exeter see the high at least attempt to ridge North towards the Artic, One to watch
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Let's get things in prospective.
Firstly new readers and posters may benefit from reading some of the seasoned and expert contributors posts that will point you in right direction and stop disappointment or over excitement between model runs.
I can not name them all, so to name just one John Holmes i believe may still have access to his blogs that will point you in right direction.
The models themselves, No model is trying to catch up with another, they get data inputted and then data analysed to provide complicated output. ECM data will not change because they saw what UKMO or GFS data said, or vice versa.
GFS : This model i have found to often pick up a trend early, drop it and then return to it.
This is what you look for in fi, trends. Anything else is consideration only.
Another good way to look at models is to study changes of same run, 18z with 18z etc
This gives greatest clues to what the models are working from and evolution.
Then the different run times to see why they choose to be different.
A major chart to use is 500mb chart this gives a huge hint.
There is a lot of Shannon entropy in forecasts by the models now due to complicate teleconnections. The MJO has been in right phase. The SSW has taken effects and continues too. Dew points will be a nightmare to forecast as soon as Tuesday next week. Its two soon to say if a model has been consistently right or wrong but i suggest almost all have played with something that will be close to the truth at some stage. The problem is which models and when.
Mean while cold outlook is suggested by most models and some less cold interludes possible. Prior to last winter most of us would be happy with the opportunities the models are hinting at, and not just the stellar ones 24 hours ago.
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I think the clue that some of you are looking for is in the ECM tonight.
This model is doing what i would expect with the MJO phase today, the effects in ten plus days time.
What should happen as the MJO moves through phase 6 into 7 is we should see the high pressure try to move North east over the UK and into Scandinavia. This is what i see the ECM trying to do. Whilst the SSW is a starting block for Northern Hemisphere cold, its the MJO phase that includes us in the party, if we get the invite.
If you look at the latest ECM you can see fairly clearly the attempt to Move the high. Still plenty that can go wrong but We have the disruption and split of the vortex and we have the MJO move towards a more favourable phase.
Personally i use 12 days as a good average between any phase and the effect in North west Europe, If we get the High in place, we certainly will have a lot of cold air to tap into.
Not added images as you can see yourselves on the ECM model charts
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This Derek stuff is nonsense
Firstly having been to the weather studio in Cardiff, i can tell you that the Chief forecaster in Exeter makes a broad forecast, of which all forecasters then have to keep broadly in line with. The regional forecaster may update Exeter if what happens locally is different from forecast, I.e Sleet or rain, becomes snow. They update the forecast then.
The graphics are also pretty much nationwide with only small tweaks.
The forecast is of snow across most of Wales, but with some higher accumulations near the South and East, the highest accumulations are currently forecast to be Over Devon and South West, as the system retreats that direction leaving them in risk zone earlier.
Southern Wales is quite possibly to be added to that higher risk area , but along coasts is borderline between becoming sleety. I would suggest more likely over Southern England, but Bristol channel also effects not only convection (the plus) but also dew points ( the negative) Very touch and go Tomorrow day for us. Heaviest snow likely in the areas where temperatures are close to marginal.
Like last time, not everywhere will see large accumulations, Some will. This has already been the best year for many years for some and i do hope our friends in the more Western parts of wales get some action this time to share the fun. However what ever any forecaster says will make no difference to what you get, they do not make it snow or not, they just anywise data.
I have met Benhaz, Derek and civil contingency forecaster and i can tell you know all are very professional and friendly. I do talk more with Ian F but thats just he is more of a social media person,
I think we should be talking more about our current weather and not being disrespectful to people who are not here to defend themselves. Its a bit like trolling.
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use mine on floodwarn look for snow page radar and predicted on there
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Hi jay
Some of us must travel to keep others safe, I was supposed to finish at 9am today, but 2 accidents and a fire mean i actually finished at 11am, i have to be back in BY 6pm - which means i must travel during red alert (5pm ) to get in by 6pm.
There are people making journeys that they could and should avoid, but some others are essential workers
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Snow tonight will be mainly light / flurries and patchy,
Tomorrow main event starts and if as forecast - very bad tomorrow evening
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http://www.floodwarn.co.uk/live snow reports snowing now.htm
good also for the webcams too see conditions around the regions too at bottom of page on interactive map
I will need to do some work on the site tomorrow to make it better
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50 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:
it is just checked flood warn site and it should arrive here 12 ish
yes - a band of showers and perhaps an hours continuous light snow between 1 and 2am
Its the band near Oxford right now.
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The latest Met office graphics make it look a non event
Just been put on the Met office twitter
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For those worried about snow in west, here is the Met office forecast for tomorrow and Friday, similar to the BBC but some subtle changes and maybe not quite as good for the areas in depth, plus more about freezing rain Friday
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9 minutes ago, PompeyFC said:
Strangely if you watch the metoffice forecast on their site it does not show as much snow throughout Thursday as the BBC one just did.
It shows fairly similar , but looked later for main snow, around 5pm into Cardiff for instance.
That was also made this morning and other model runs will have been looked at since.
If we get similar between Met O and Meteogroup (BBC) then that is good, but expects some slight differences.
Weather warnings will give best idea of upgrades or downgrades
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I am nights tonight and tomorrow night, 6pm till 9am on both. Some of my colleagues live in heads of valleys area. So travelling from Cardiff home Friday morning may be very interesting.thats if others get in to take over from us.
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Hi Jay,
Do not take those charts as anywhere near accurate, but they give you an idea of snow potential and of course the wind makes drifting, i think Friday Morning rush hour may be rather interesting
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Our own hashtag?
#DavidMeetEmma
**SNOW**
Thursday is when David meets Emma
Storm Emma moves towards Wales tomorrow morning, St Davids day bringing what could be known as the St Davids Day blizzard when we look back at this day in the future.-
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Currently minus 9 in Brecon apparently
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11 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:
Is there no heavy snow now pyro?
Yes but later in the day / Evening
How much / how heavy is still not guaranteed but looks like most of morning it will be mainly light / moderate and still an issue as blowing about.
That was just to say - may be okay in Morning to get back, but looks likely a problem the later they leave it.
I am 90% sure of Snow on Thursday - just depends where that low end up on where largest totals will be and how long it lasts.
I hope its about right now, but thats just hope
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2 minutes ago, dbaloo said:
10k run in -3 conditions...frozen pavements and a proper cold wind.cant wait for Thursday to be here.would anybody recommend I drive to Bridgend at 6 am and then try and get back to bargoed at 6 pm?
No, but keep updated on forecasts
Suggest icy going on route down, light occasionally moderate snow most of day after 10am but may be tricky getting home late afternoon, a half day sounds good advice and keep listening to forecast . Much can change on snow amounts - wind if snow does come as forecast will cause issues with drifting.
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47 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:
I wouldn't be so sure about expecting to see red warnings issued. When we got the 40cm+ dumping of snow in March 2013 we "only" had Amber warnings.
no heads of valleys had a red warning in 2013
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'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad
I DO NOT LIKE THE METO FORECAST
Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:
A continuing risk of snow and gales Thursday and Friday, especially in the northeast. Southwest will see the risk of freezing rain Friday, however Saturday will be drier for most.
Updated: 01:49 on Tue 27 Feb 2018 GMT
Cold hunt - models and chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
They may have, but 06z normally has about 8-10% more aircraft data - less data in some other areas thou