Scorcher

First 20C here today. I was expecting it tomorrow rather than today but a pleasant surprise.

Downburst Hasn't affected things here today. We rather unexpectedly reached 20C this afternoon (I was expecting the first 20C tomorrow rather than today). If the 850 hPa temps are high enough it doesn't matter much about the ground not being bone dry.

Everyone is getting hysterical about the charts for next week but no one has mentioned that the weekend has improved again- much better charts from the ECM and UKMO. As I said 2 days ago, there is a lot of uncertainty even 3 or 4 days out so I wouldn't be getting despondent about next week.

MP-R I was thinking further west than you to be honest- looks like Devon and Cornwall have had a shocker.

danm I feel sorry for those in the South West and Wales today. Must be feeling very short-changed with it being so glorious (and warm) elsewhere.

Summer8906 I think you're overestimating Edmonton's averages. Have a look at the climate data there. Similar to SE England between June and August but cooler either side of that. Inland British Columbia is a different story- as are places further east like Toronto and Montreal.

Summer8906 Not sure about that- they have much longer winters in Alberta than we do in the UK. Snow is quite possible in June in Edmonton. Edmonton's summers are also cooler than London's on average.

B87 We had 11.9 hours here on the 20th. Also 10 hours on March 30th.

Alderc 2.0 The Met Office are still going for a decent week here. Green on the pressure charts doesn't necessarily equal poor weather.

B87 Interesting as May 2018 wasn't wet here at all. Only 28mm. In this area it was definitely the best May of my lifetime and better than 2020.

Summer8906 Well considering we've had plenty of cold and wet conditions over the last few days, I will certainly take it being warmer and unsettled over cold and unsettled. It's not as though cool sunshine has been abundant recently. I'm just sick of feeling cold as I'm sure most are now.

B87 I've always maintained that May and June are the months that could potentially go much higher than their all time monthly records CET wise. Last June was the warmest on record but there was definitely scope for it to be quite a bit warmer. May has very strong sun so I think it's a quirk of the British climate that we've never seen a 16C+ May. Obviously this is SST related but I find it strange that in hundreds of years there has never been a blocked setup with high pressure centred to the east of the UK with persistent southerly/south-easterly winds for long enough to produce a very warm May. In theory local records could and probably should be a lot higher for May as well. I see no reason we couldn't see widespread temps above 30C across England and Wales in May. It's definitely possible in the right setup- probably a south-easterly flow with minimal sea track and 850 hPa temps between 15C and 20C which is definitely possible in this day and age.

Lots of model uncertainty for this week- even only a few days out. Still lots of variation between runs from all the models for Wednesday and Thursday even. So I certainly wouldn't be writing off the weekend now. Only a few days ago the ensembles were showing below average 850 hPa temps for the forseeable- now the mean is above average throughout. So at least it's looking like it will be warming up.

SunnyG The ECM has the consistency from yesterday. Only subtle changes today whereas the GFS is all over the place as usual.

northwestsnow I think whatever happens, the warmer air is nailed on now. How warm it will be at the surface and whether it will be completely dry in this area is still open to question I think. The ECM is less favourable in the short term with the warmest air initially missing us but it's very good in the latter stages of the run- we would probably see 4 or 5 consecutive days in the low 20s in NW England.

Penrith Snow I don't think I'll be needing my heating after tomorrow thanks... Famous last words looking at the output now.

WYorksWeather There was always the potential for it to happen though with such warm air close by/over the UK. Still on a knife edge though given pressure isn't very high- especially further south. Anyone who has booked a trip to France/Northern Spain for the end of next week might be getting a bit wet...

northwestsnow The GFS 06Z is continuing the positive progress as well. Warm air stuck over the UK into the weekend and an easterly flow which is always good for NW England at this time of year. This chart for next Saturday has come out of nowhere. It would be a shock to the system (a very pleasant one) for most in this area, given we haven't reached 20C yet. Not hugely deep in FI either- only a week away!

Finally some promising signs this morning. Things are certainly trending in the right direction with more warm runs appearing- it's been a while since there was any prospect of anything very warm developing at all. I would snap your hand off if you offered me a week of sunshine right now, even if it was only in the mid teens.

2005 is memorable to cricket fans because of the fantastic Ashes series that year. The weather was pretty dry for the cricket with not too many rain delays across the five tests. The 2nd half of June was fantastic- I recall it well having just finished my A-Levels and spending a lot of time in the sunshine. There were cool, cloudy periods at various points during the summer but there was a lot of dry, usable weather throughout and not a huge amount of rain. August was unremarkable but was a decent month overall.

Penrith Snow Bit of an exaggeration- the ensembles are actually not far off average for 850 hPa temps after a warmer spell next week (that admittedly might be tempered by rain and cloud). Some people have the perception that a Greenland High always leads to cool conditions in the UK. It doesn't guarantee it at all.

reef You're still doing considerably better than West Yorkshire though- only 61 hours so far in Wakefield. We're not doing much better here at 73.1 hours so far- very poor.

I drove over to Huddersfield this morning and it was noticeable how much colder it was there with this NE flow. The Pennines make a big difference in this sort of setup- it was noticeably warmer and brighter west of the Pennines. 13.3C at Rostherne which isn't far below average. Some were suggesting we wouldn't see double figures in this area this week. Only 8.8C at Bingley on the Yorkshire side of the Pennines and 10.2C at Wakefield.

Turned into a really lovely day- much better than I was expecting. The sun is feeling very strong as well today.

B87 Much better since 2016 as a whole than the run we had between 2006 and 2016 though. 2019 had that memorable heatwave late in the month. 2020 had plenty of hot days, especially further south. The Augusts between 2006 and 2016 were basically devoid of any high temps at all here. That has changed in recent years. The nature of the British climate means we aren't going to get consecutive great months very often.