Richie V
-
Posts
951 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Richie V
-
-
I have just returned home from work to a scene of carnage. Neighbours house roof badly damaged, tiles scattered over 100 ft or so, garden fence smashed, even one of the concrete posts is snapped. What the hell, my anemometer 10 metres up on the roof is destroyed. The last speed on the console before death is 99.2 mph. Can someone find out for me if there has been any tornadic activity in south yorks or barnsley plz? My house is ok. The anemometer pole was a tv antenna pole and is bent almost flat pointing east.
-
8
-
-
SSW 15 to 26 mph here. Giong black out west. Pressure falling at 8.2 mb hr at the moment.Ominously still here
-
I'm nervous and yet very excited about tommorow. I'll explain again the situation here. In Darton I'm high up on a ridge (330 ft), out to my west it dips to under 100 ft gradually over 4 miles then beyond that the land rises out to the pennines peaks. On a clear day I can see over to and beyond saddleworth moor from the bedroom window, a good 30 miles or so. Between saddleworth moor and my house on the ridge in darton a streight westerly is un interrupted. Nothing in the way whatsoever. I record between 15 and 25 mph higher than any given forecast in these situations.
Time to buckle up me thinks.
Southerly gales are increadibly rare here.
-
3
-
-
I've been waiting all winter for this one.... The phrase pig in s..t comes to mind, that will be me tommorow eve.
-
6
-
-
Wowsers, bont mess yourself over it dude. Now yoy know what it has been like in south yorkshire. We have only been proper over 70 mph once this winter. I was beginning to think I was been punished for something.
Noticed somones post got deleted, don't know why. Anyway yes it will be a bad storm for whoever it hits, but thats not the point. I am annoyed as its just going to end up like a typical blowy day for us down here.
-
Yay, finally we get a turn in south yorkshire. Mabe me n The Pit will get to record some big numbers on out stations at last.
Tonight into early Tueday 50 to 65mph gusts will move in from the West. This is due to a low pressure system passing by the NW of Scotland,
Onto Wednesday 12z runs both the GFS and UKMO agree on it with the GFS slightly deeper by about 5mb but they pretty much agree on the track of the storm.
Wednesday 12pm Gust chart in MPH showing 50 to 60mph inland and over 90mph to the South of Ireland
Wednesday 6pm 60 to 70mph gusts inland with some exposed parts likely to reach 75mph or slightly more,
At the moment Wednesday is looking very severe mostly because the high winds look to head inland.
Onto Friday still uncertain about it the GFS this morning dropped the idea of the storm but on the latest update along with the UKMO model it is back although it has been delayed until Saturday morning. Currently it shows 50 to 60mph gusts along the coasts but the worst of the winds miss the UK.
Next 3 days total rainfall. Most of Ireland, Wales, SW England, N England, S Scotland and W Scotland look to see the most rainfall over the next 3 days,
-
I'm going to stand naked on my lawn
Seriously though, stay safe guys.
Im just going to lift up my rock and get under it..
-
1
-
-
I've always said for the large part, the gfs is fantastic for these weather types. Anything else though, and it really struggles bad.
Wednesday's low looking nasty, with wind gusts of 60-70mph even inland across southern/central Britain, perhaps 80mph around southern and western coasts, maybe odd isolated 80-90mph on exposure SW England/ SW Wales. This probably one of if not the strongest storm yet to pass this winter for southern Britain. Plus another 20-30mm in places on top of the 10-20mm tomorrow. Deeply concerning this rain and the strong winds.
Saturday's low concerns me too, though uncertainties wrt to track and depth. GFS and UKMO suggest a deep low tracking NE across England and Wales, however, ECM for now has a shallow low moving across southern England. GFS has performed well so far with these Atlantic depressions, ECM has been jumping all over the place. A look at the EC ensembles for Sat show a fair few members bringing a deeper low NE as per UKMO and GFS:
As do GEFS ...
Wednesday's low looking nasty, with wind gusts of 60-70mph even inland across southern/central Britain, perhaps 80mph around southern and western coasts, maybe odd isolated 80-90mph on exposure SW England/ SW Wales. This probably one of if not the strongest storm yet to pass this winter for southern Britain. Plus another 20-30mm in places on top of the 10-20mm tomorrow. Deeply concerning this rain and the strong winds.
Saturday's low concerns me too, though uncertainties wrt to track and depth. GFS and UKMO suggest a deep low tracking NE across England and Wales, however, ECM for now has a shallow low moving across southern England. GFS has performed well so far with these Atlantic depressions, ECM has been jumping all over the place. A look at the EC ensembles for Sat show a fair few members bringing a deeper low NE as per UKMO and GFS:
As do GEFS ...
-
1
-
-
If this was a greenland or scandi high it would definately not varify, even at this range!Just remember, these swines varify pretty well generally at these timeframes. I'm 85/15 in favour of something big this week.
Some of the ensembles above remind me of Hurricanes, relatively small features wound up extremely tightly.. all I can say is lets hope they are 'against the grain' or we could have a few problems in the south middle of this week..
-
Yes it is, sorry in light of recent events, that sounds really selfish. Take care folks in the south west.
Yep. Definitely not a chart you want to see at just 72 hours away!
-
TBH, by the timr you are up to branch rattler the wind begins to cause problems. Todays max is 45.7 mph here. Though we have just had a huge freak gust of 78.2 mph my ears popped just before. Wind in general starting to really get up now. If you look on rain today theres almost s mini low spinning across north yorkshire in that cluster of showers... Just got a 55.1 mph right now. I bet thetes a few surprises tonight. Yes.... The stormy day to beat was that thursday back in december for us.Excuse the typo's.... Stupid android phone.
I remember six weeks of stronger stuff here in the early 2000'sLeaf Rustler 40 to 50 mphTwig shaker 51-60mphBranch rattler 61-70mphTree twister 71mph plusLocal Government removal tool 100mph plus.
-
not too sure pit, xc maps suggest southerly for the most part. Think comes sat eve we will score this timeA change of wind direction to the south takes us out of the firing line once again.
-
1
-
-
This thread brings peace to my heart! Over on the MOD slow watch thread i've taken a heck of a slippering of late for forewarning storms. When will they listen
I have to thank you folks on here, this is far far more informative than the forum which is supposed to be the model watching/commenting one, but simply turns into a 'when will it snow' thread. Thanks all, very very useful information!!
-
1
-
-
See post #691...
Nothing has changed.
Are the lp's getting deep enough for you yet?
-
Good lord, clutching at the extreme lol. Folks, that eastern euro block is two thirds of the problem. It WILL NOT retrogress with the heavy cold progged for NE Canada / US. for any chance of a decent cold spell now you need this block to be blasted right back into russia and hope the jet weakens on the back of a very deep low here. Without this the deep cold is likely going nowhere from US / CAN. Weakened jet on the back of a huge low with the scandi / Ukraine high shoved back east to allow steep ridging toward Greenland is the best hope now. That block to our NE needs to do one and fast!
G' night.
Tomorrow should show this breaking off on the GFS 0z, 6z and 12z. Would bring a short-lived easterly for next Friday. Need heights to become stronger to the NE to send the main area of LP to the NW/W to the SE. Colder air should then find its way to the UK but at the moment, nothing cold enough showing to bring snowfall.
-
2
-
-
Same old i'm afraid paul, if it don't show cold... Forget it. There are far more serious issues afoot in the next 10 days or so. I think by the end of next week, every news channel and paper in the land will feature the weather as the main headline. Serious rain issues and possible serious wind event are afoot.
This type of post bugs me tbh - just because a model goes off on a tangent later in some runs a week ago it doesn't mean everything it now suggests is not going to happen. If we worked on that basis then we'd never look at any models as they all have their ups and downs!
-
Thank you, I seem to have ruffled feathers in here big time this eve. Apologies to the mod team.
To be fair I genuinely believe this is a realistic view of where things stand right now. Alaskan ridges and how they can result in a split vortex down the line is all very well but the overriding fact of the matter is the models have consistently been showing for a considerable period of time now a rapid deterioration in weather conditions to take hold from this coming Friday. So it's certainly not inconceivable to believe we won't see upgrades in the days ahead with regards to the intensity of these upcoming lows similar to that of Dec.
-
Hi Nick,Can't remember if it was you, nick F of steve M that said a while back... "history shows that in nearly every winter bar mabe one, if by the end of jan, no meaningful blocking or cold is or has been present, it won't be there in feb either"Not a direct quote pardon me if im wrong :)Ric
Tamara's post sums up where we are in terms of colder potential, and I do fear the tumbleweed maybe blowing across this thread for a while! Of course we can't rule out something colder in February at some stage but the PV over Canada has shown no sign at all of weakening for a sufficient length of time or moving further to the nw. As we see now it will get help from the Siberian side and this will give it another fuel injection. Its for this reason that we see the models in agreement on bringing troughing right over or just to the west of the UK, whilst theres still some blocking showing to the east or ne theres a slim chance that this might get pulled a little further west but generally the UK would still end up as the crossover point. We have seen at least one constant trend in recent weeks amongst the will it or wont it easterly drama and that's they have had the pattern too far east post T168hrs, we saw the pattern edged west but then as the modelling got to grips with things another little shunt eastwards. I'm sure the hardened coldies who have been here many times with these frustrating set ups will still plod along hoping for a change, and of course things can and do change, weather modelling is fluid and as we've seen just as colder synoptics can implode the same can happen with milder ones although of course much less regularly.
-
Sorry, a tad off topic but to give an illustration of sun power already at the end of jan...In the latter stages of december the gap between sun and shade was approx 3.8c at 13:30pmYesterday it was 5.9c for the same time, indeed a noticeable increase now.
How is it misleading? The sun is stronger now than it is in December and those particular latter charts on the ECM looks more like a rain with perhaps transient snow on the hills regardless of the time of year, so surely saying its a complete snowfest for the Midlands northwards is more misleading than my statement but there we go.
-
not perplexing at all, at lest scanning the same output as the mentioned poster and reflected well on this evenings bbc forecasts. Am I on the wrong side of the event horizon here? All the odd comments of odd looking output? No, It's perfectly simple. Seriously guys!!!! do I need to call dial-a-ride?This post is very perplexing, goes against what all the other experts on here are saying.
-
1
-
-
Snow potential, what he wants to see, hopecasting, dunno?!hi steve, just for clarification, what are we basing those scores on?
-
by monday there might be not much left of uk! I'm increasingly concerned now. Some of you may wish to pop over to the atlantic storms thread and check it out!!!By Monday, UKMO-GM has snow showers advecting well inland on westerly flow across e.g. W Country, M4 corridor, Wales etc. As I mentioned yesterday, the unusually chilly characteristics of the westerly flow - at least, as currently progged - looks more likely to bear wintry ppn than otherwise might be the norm for late Jan. One to watch....
-
Karl, just to let you know, really enjoyed your efforts this winter man, chin up lad!
I agree with Richie, I will be delighted if the 00z show upgrades but I'm not hopeful, the scandi high is a tease and the atlantc to deliver a knock out blow is the form horse as per usual. If anyone in the usa was reading this forum they would laugh, they get all the snow..we get nothing.
-
4
-
-
Aside the fact this is p8 stamp and the gfs 18 z, that date is further away than one of those bbq summers.... Mabe.... Just mabe!
Here comes the number 8, next stop Winter.
Severe Atlantic storms February 2014
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted