Richie V
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Posts posted by Richie V
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Nick f is on the money folks, that ridge dissapeares, cold will be incredibly hard to find. Sorry but true.
I fear the traditional calming of the NA over feb may be hard to find also.
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Hi steve, I have every reason to believe we are on the cusp of raging atlantic behaviour again. However, dependant on this artic high could have spectacular conciquences. Would'nt it be cool to have an 920 hpa low undercut into southern biscay then on into euro land!!!!
Excuse my spelling... Damn smart phone.
I think John you have turned into a bit of a Grinch this year. I think the only victim of models seems to be you. I haven't seen anyone hype it out of proportion, just some analysis on whats put infront of us.
Again, the only one taking it out of context is you.
FWIW, the ECM has been modelling the arctic high since the 00z 16 / 01
& its been gaining momentum since + traversing the ECM timelines across each daily as the models have run, to be consistent in the output @ 144 / 168 tonight.
This isn't just your run of the mill amplified atlantic ridge, its something more than that, a total reversal of the zonal wind @ 60N starting over the pacific & reversing around to Northern Europe by day 10.
The hurdles are clear in everyones mind that the UK is always the end of the line, bit at least allow people the fun of speculation, even if it doesn't arrive.
I just don't see the point of posting - It wont happen, its unlikely to happen, It cant happen- Yeah, thanks for that- we know that. We have known that for years.
Who cares.
S
Wheres the facepalm smiley.
The short term atlantic forecast shows no eastward movement of the low for the next 5 days.
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I've been meaning to ask for a while... What in the name of Greek touchery is Shannon Entrophy?
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Hi nick,Maybe you should become a mildie, zonality will save your hair and your sanity.I appreciate your work on here btw. Keep it up fella.
I'm just finishing a novel on the last failed easterly! but will put that aside to post some maps up a bit later. I should stress though for the sanity of cold lovers in here lets forget about a Scandi high for the moment and see whether this ECM operational run has any legs in terms of what it does with that troughing.
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This is the same for most models. Gfs seems to model our patch of the nortj atlantic pretty well within 96 hrs, especially in zonal conditions. Forget trying to model accurately beyond 140 hrs, upstream amplification springs to mind here.
The ECM didn't raise a false alarm we did. Its not written for the South East corner of England but a global model The Easterly is still there just not in our little corner No where did I see much lower temps mention in paper or web forecast It was a 'possibility' but we still need a number of things to fall into place and they didn't. FI is there for a reason, we cant accurately forcast beyond T168 so lets go back to looking at T240 models and blame ECM when they let us down.
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Am I the only one here that does'nt want cold...?
I'm having an epic winter for growing my spruce, firs and pines, they love this weather. Record high sales thus far for the winter (3500 trees sold since oct 25.) Compared with 300 or so in the last four cold winters. I for one wish to keep a south of west zonal flow and pray the PV dont slip round to siberia.
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Hopefully, the april update to the model will vastly improve It's later output score.I for one still despise te model but it's good to have less uncertainty looking further ahead
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Ahh, so suddenly the GFS seems to be everyones best mate this evening... I wonder why lol.
What a difference a day makes!
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Hello?
No one commenting on 12z?
Over an hour of silence.
I know I'm good at clearing a room but this is rediculus
Lol
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Although not really model related, paul hudson was saying earlier... Harry said, so paul when do we get snow like north america? Paul said, none as far as we can see. He then went on to say... In fact, in the coming days the record cold in the states will intensify further. So here will be calmer than of late at weeks end but theres every sign that powerful atlantic weather will resume sometime next week.
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I had an outlandish thaught...
You know those huge covers you can get to put over a swimming pools to keep the water warm, we should sew thousands and thousands of them together and lay them out over the entire north atlantic from newfoundland to northern france to create a super land mass. Surely that would cool things down... And..... Back to reality, nice thaught though.
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I hear the gfs is having a serious referb in April, mabe it will gain some more respect in here if they trim the output range to 180+ max
I'm sure Nick will say something when he's available, but I'm sure the answer will be yes, especially if it went as far out as the GFS, wisely the programmers restricted it to 240hrs and that’s still stretching it IMO.
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Hi Nick, do you think we would see awful flip flopping in later timeframes as per gfs if the ecm ran 4 times per day?
The ECM hasn't avoided criticism over the winter so far, I've trashed it aswell! I am consistent though with my disdain for the GFS lower resolution,and have been for years.The problem is that with four runs a day you're always likely to have some huge swings, and if any sort of blocking is shown to the east or ne its likely to go completely off the rails.In terms of recent performance especially upstream the ECM has done very well and recovered its reputation somewhat, the inland runner low which was quite a complex affair was modelled very well by it whilst the GFS was hopeless. So its back in my good books for the timebeing!We'll see how things play out over the coming days, should be interesting.
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Thank you kind sir, you saved me the effort of posting. Brain scrambled, long week. Plus one for you. Sorry off topic mods, delete if this rubbishes the thread... Night all.
Steve, not going to get into a battle re which is the best model. We know the verification stats etc....But the ECM has been a tad erratic (im being kind), going from zonal to a strong Scandi block, back to zonal.... sure enough, the GFS leads folk up the garden path too. Its just too early to know where this is headed. You seem keen to back the ECM when it shows a colder theme, disregarding the other models. You did it back at the end of November into Dec, when the ECM showed a northerly, with deep cold indicated for days. Well we all know how that turned out. GFS was on the money, ECM backtracked drastically nearer the time. It left the model licking its wounds.Let's see what tomorrows output brings us, and not get too carried away.
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My typing sucks on android phone, my bad. As for the goggles I suggest you google auntie mable come outside lolol
Put down the mulled wine! As a regular reader for years of the model discussions the joke over there is the GFS not the ECM, and by the way its NCEP!
Just mention hurricane Sandy, luckily they went with the ECM. Not saying the ECM will be correct here but its by far the favourite model of forecasters in the USA.
By the way cute dog in your avatar, lose those goggles though the Biggles look was so last year!
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Haha, if only it was that simple, you missing the clues????
So are the UKMO ignoring the ECM? and going with their in house view. Or have they been infiltrated by an undercover Net Weather operative determined to stop the influx of NW members to the trauma unit after the ECM 32 bombshell last night? Apparently Ian will be sent to a Russian Gulag if he spills the beans! We'll soon have to print those t-shirts with Free Ian! Night all, see you all tomorrow for what could be a pivotal day in the search for some cold and snow.
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Guys n gals, can I just say.... I have just seen the ecm op ensemble. This is the biggest joke in all my years in meteorolgy I have ever seen (and people moan about the gfs!)
Read NOTHING into the ecm 12z. NECP must be sick with laughter.
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I find it remarkable the ecm trowing that ridge artic bound with such a massive area of off the bottom of the scale low z500's over canada / US. DON'T be dissapointed if that vast area phases eastward in future runs. Looking through tonights ecm i'd give this happening as leading favourite. Those widespread ultra low 500's need to ease substantially for a better chance of a strong ridge to take hold
Ric
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My previous views remain unchanged this morning, see the images in I'm dreaming of post below.
I don't wish to be a killjoy but from what I'm seeing this evening, be prepared for a long ride of current pattern thru most of jan (don't ask for charts or data, I'm not allowed to post them here) after a relitive softening up of the vortex to mid next week, looks like re organising It's strength to the back end of next week somewhere between SE Greenland and south of west Icelandic waters with a strong but relitively flat azores ridging and rapidly collapsing eastward
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Still blowing in the high fortys here.
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Its here, gust of 58.2mph, gone crazy in an instant. Pressure rising fast.
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Pressure still falling. Wind in the west now. Front passed, sun is out.
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really? Sw 14 gusting 35.4 here.Hardly a breath of wind here
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South and west Yorks get a brief severe slippering from that if it is correct.
Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
After 27 years experience of watching north atlantic low pressure, I tell you now, i'm not encouraged there will even be a sniff of anything remotely easterly after thursday. Forget all that model shannon entrophy c..p. Seen it year upon year upon year. While ever the ne u.s , ne canada is as cold as it is, forget it. This is not hopecasting or just a hunch, nor am I saying winters over. Just expect more waiting, a bus will arrive eventually!
Don't be a meanie lol,