Snow-Capped

Going by the latest radar I think it is quite likely that the initial front coming up from the south could enhance shower activity in our region, hard to say if this will occur away from higher ground though. As always with setups like this, it is pretty much just watch the radar and look out of the window!!

If you look closely on the radar I think you can see an example of orgraphic enhancement happening over the pennines. Moisture is coming off the north sea and once it hits the pennines is generating snow. This could well be cause of the update to an amber warning along with the strength of the wind which is very strong at the moment.

I am at 250m ASL in Oakworth and the snow quickly turned to rain about half an hour ago, temperature has risen slowly to 2.4c, snow starting to melt quite readily with a big drip, drip. Shame as it was originally forecast to stay as snow at this elevation all day. Oh well, it was nice to see anyway after the winter we have just had

Moderate snow been falling in Oakworth for the last hour now, a good couple of centimetres so far. In prime location in western Pennines.

EURO4 Model Model: Euro4: Global weather forecast model from the "UK MetOffice, North Atlantic European Model" Updated: 4 times per day, from 0:00, 05:00, 11:00 and 17:00 UTC

Will become even more marginal as less cold uppers are being introduced down from -6 to -4, DP's also around 1-2 so makes it all that more marginal. As usual heavier bursts more likely to fall as sleet/snow.

Most likely due to the introduction of slightly less cold-uppers aloft at around -4C and higher DP which is between 1-2C in this area, all makes it very marginal without enough height, I would say anywhere above 300-350m would be guaranteed snow, between 200-300 marginal sleet/snow and under 200 rain and possibly sleet. Not that any of it matters as the latest radar shows it all passing through here quickly, but colder uppers slowly filtering south again from Scotland. Looking forward to a sharp frost tonight as the wind dies down more than last night.

Latest METO update for North West. Gone is the mention of the snow overnight Saturday into Sunday, I get the feeling it is all further west or isn't developing as much as expected as now only a mention of clouding over, especially in Cumbria. That said the forecast from Sunday to Tuesday isn't all that bad and some should see snow, but others will see rain, all marginal as this cold spell has been so far for those of us south of Scotland. Regional forecast for North West England Early wintry showers soon clearing leaving a cold, dry night. This Evening and Tonight: Any early wintry showers across Manchester, Merseyside and Cheshire will soon clear away southwards leaving a mainly dry but cold night with some lengthy clear spells. A widespread frost will form, along with icy patches. Minimum Temperature -6°C. Saturday: It will be a cold, dry, frosty and sunny start, although as the day goes on the skies will gradually cloud over, especially across Cumbria. Light and variable breezes. Maximum Temperature 3°C. Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday: It looks likely to be changeable with outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow at times. The wind should be mainly light to moderate in strength and overnight frosts are likely. Updated at: 1436 on Fri 15 Jan 2016

Latest METO forecast for our region now has no mention of any sleet/snow overnight Saturday into Sunday. still at least it does still mention risk of sleet/snow going into next week.

I am always of the ilk that the METO have far greater access to information than the general public can see and that is why at times the outlook forecasts go against the charts that we are looking at, that said however they do highlight in the opening few words that there is much uncertainty in the first couple of days.

Latest update from METO. Looks like areas down the spine of the country, especially the Pennine areas could do very well out of this. UK Outlook for Wednesday 20 Jan 2016 to Friday 29 Jan 2016: There is much uncertainty about the weather during the first couple of days, but we are currently expecting various fronts to make slow progress eastwards across the UK, bringing rain, sleet and possibly also some significant snow in places. The wettest conditions will be in the west and there is a fair chance that eastern areas will remain cold and dry until the weekend. Then from the weekend onwards the most likely scenario is for milder and unsettled conditions with showers or longer spells of rain to spread across all areas, with the heaviest rain likely to occur in the west and southwest. Although it should be generally mild there could be brief colder spells between the bands of rain. UK Outlook for Friday 29 Jan 2016 to Friday 12 Feb 2016: As we move from January into February northern areas are likely to see an unsettled period, with outbreaks of rain, strong winds, and some hill snow mixed with brighter, drier periods. Southern parts in contrast should see drier and more settled conditions, although rain cannot be ruled out. Overall temperatures are expected to be around normal, but possibly slightly below average in the south and east. Updated at: 0123 on Fri 15 Jan 2016

Latest update from METO. Looks like areas down the spine of the country such as west of Leeds, Sheffield, etc. could do well from this if it comes off. UK Outlook for Wednesday 20 Jan 2016 to Friday 29 Jan 2016: There is much uncertainty about the weather during the first couple of days, but we are currently expecting various fronts to make slow progress eastwards across the UK, bringing rain, sleet and possibly also some significant snow in places. The wettest conditions will be in the west and there is a fair chance that eastern areas will remain cold and dry until the weekend. Then from the weekend onwards the most likely scenario is for milder and unsettled conditions with showers or longer spells of rain to spread across all areas, with the heaviest rain likely to occur in the west and southwest. Although it should be generally mild there could be brief colder spells between the bands of rain. UK Outlook for Friday 29 Jan 2016 to Friday 12 Feb 2016: As we move from January into February northern areas are likely to see an unsettled period, with outbreaks of rain, strong winds, and some hill snow mixed with brighter, drier periods. Southern parts in contrast should see drier and more settled conditions, although rain cannot be ruled out. Overall temperatures are expected to be around normal, but possibly slightly below average in the south and east. Updated at: 0123 on Fri 15 Jan 2016

Latest update from METO highlights the uncertainty but extends the cold until next weekend. UK Outlook for Wednesday 20 Jan 2016 to Friday 29 Jan 2016: There is much uncertainty about the weather during the first couple of days, but we are currently expecting various fronts to make slow progress eastwards across the UK, bringing rain, sleet and possibly also some significant snow in places. The wettest conditions will be in the west and there is a fair chance that eastern areas will remain cold and dry until the weekend. Then from the weekend onwards the most likely scenario is for milder and unsettled conditions with showers or longer spells of rain to spread across all areas, with the heaviest rain likely to occur in the west and southwest. Although it should be generally mild there could be brief colder spells between the bands of rain. UK Outlook for Friday 29 Jan 2016 to Friday 12 Feb 2016: As we move from January into February northern areas are likely to see an unsettled period, with outbreaks of rain, strong winds, and some hill snow mixed with brighter, drier periods. Southern parts in contrast should see drier and more settled conditions, although rain cannot be ruled out. Overall temperatures are expected to be around normal, but possibly slightly below average in the south and east. Updated at: 0123 on Fri 15 Jan 2016

Here is the link to the Euro4 model if anyone is still after it http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201312180000&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Well up here in Bronte country at 250m ASL it has mainly been rain with some sleety bits mixed in, was expecting more with the altitude but not to be as of yet Current temp is sat at 2.1c

Had sleety showers overnight. I live directly in the yellow warning zone so at 250m asl I am hoping to see some of the white stuff falling and lying overnight so long as the PPN actually hits us and is heavy enough.

I get the feeling that Leeds will be a little too far west, although we may fair better on Wednesday. As for my home location of Haworth, I think too far west for any action, but I shouldn't complain as saw enough snow from the last two North Westerlies. It is time you Easterners got some of the white stuff :cold:

MVH has just posted the MESO and NAE models for 6pm this evening, as mentioned definitely one for the archives 06z UKMO MESO model at 6pm is one for the archives and tallies with the NAE model well - http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/25/basis06/ukuk/prty/13012600_2_2506.gif … #snow pic.twitter.com/VVu9cBgP

Light snow has just started falling here in Headingley, Leeds from the pre-frontal band.

In some respects I am sad to see the snow and cold go, but then again with the type of cyclogenesis that is evident on the latest FAX charts there is going to be some pretty wild and wet weather over the next week, it will be nice to see some strong winds of which there has been an evident lack of over the last few months. Come on, it has to be better than settled, mild, murky weather surely?!?!

The snow will reach you, however as per the METO warning map, there won't be as much snow in Lincoln as there will be in North and West Yorkshire, there is also the possibility of the snow turning more sleety at lower levels as the night progresses. I have the same worry about getting home from Leeds to Haworth as I finish at 4:40pm, and as you know Haworth is quite high and smack bang in the middle of the Amber zone.

This fax chart shows the pre-frontal band very well, with the main band coming into Ireland

The radar is now showing the PPN in the west is organising and I have to say there is some pretty heavy stuff in there!!

I was wondering about the patchy nature of the front. MVH has informed me that this is not the main front and is just a forward band bringing some light snow before the main event which is still forecast to be be from 3pm to 6pm onwards. The PPN to the west should organise in the coming hours big time...as an aside I have also been informed that it is snowing lightly now in Lancashire.

It was nice to see the sun, but already clouding over here in Leeds in the last 1/2 hour so don't think you will have sunshine for long I am afraid. A lovely sunrise here as well, from red to currently orange..