Iceberg
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Posts posted by Iceberg
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6 recordings of flight winds between 110-120kt in the NE wall.
Major again at next advisory -
Pressure just recorded of 954-955mb quite a bit lower than the last update of 966mb
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Raw T numbers correspond to a mid Cat 4, adj to a low-end cat 4.
Deeping and drying eye.
Hot towers and very cold. Cloud tops.
Delta is strengthening rapidly.
Recon should pass just before the next update, but a Major is very likely imo.
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Quite stunning
Ssts are only in their 28e and are about 1c above average without this a cat 5 would be possible...
He is still getting stronger on Sat and dvorak.
Path still a concern for us. latest nhc now with a forecast point on the Irish coast.
Gfs much further West and out of the cone...
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Looks like Humberto will be upgraded to a Major hurricane in the next advisory.
Recon have found pressure just sub 950mb. With winds of 100kts.
So Cat 3.
TS winds from some estimates cover 350 miles so he is really growing big.
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Pressure 959mb in the first pass for a while and winds of 85 kts
if the eye ever got really organised this would be very top end....but atm it's not
18 hours ago, summer blizzard said:The globals did suggest good if not strong intensification to be fair and have done so for days (well, i have not checked in the past 36 hours).
They had quite a small system...ec takes the energy up to iceland by t144th t168th. Gfs keeps it adrift mid Atlantic as it gets cut of from the jet.
where it gets picked up at t120 is quite uncertain imo.
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Well I never.
Raw adt Dvorak has just jumped to T6.1.
This is in response to the clearing eye.
This would equate to a Cat 4. Which he certainly isn’t.
But does clearly suggest some very rapid intensification is happening.
How will a very large powerful hurricane that isn’t currently being modelling well by the globals affect our side of the woods? I wonder!
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Pressure just recorded at 978mb and winds of 75kts maybe 80kts. From recon.
Hes quite a big bugger.
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Pressure recorded of sub 990mb. But probably still around 990mb.
Still a nice stop. Radar still shows the eye open. But he’s looking impressive.
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Humberto has really struggled shear and dry air since he started. Also his circulation was poor.
However the last 12 hrs has seen this lessen dramatically. A solid cdo has formed and banding is evident.
radar from Florida indicates a nice eye forming. Currently open at 20% in the nw of the eye wall but decent enough...for pressure falls.
Recon have just entered and pressure has fallen a bit to 995mb.
he will need a close eye for the next 24 hrs
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This morning Dorian reached 954mb and 117it flight winds which was a clear car 3 and back to being a Major.
however since then dry air has opened the eye up and I can only really see him declining.
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Latest nhc just released
"Dorian has become a little better organized during the past several hours, with the eye becoming somewhat more distinct and the cold cloud tops in the eyewall becoming more symmetric."
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Dorian.
Getting his looks back
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In th last few hrs Dorian has started to rapidly intensify again imo.
pressure has started falling and flight winds are just starting to respond again.
Dvorak numbers are increasing from 3.5\4.0 to 6.1
There is still an open eye to the East but convective banding is impressive.
if and that an IF Dorian closes the eye then a RI WILL occur as it moves closer to NC
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Miami Doppler radar.
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A few signs that he has stopped strengthening as he hits the islands. Maybe even weakening a touch.
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Records..
Dorian is now the joint 5th strongest Atlantic hurricanes by wind
If pressure goes below 909mb he will be in the top 10 by pressure.
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Pressure reading just taken 909.5mb
Will be to sub 900mb ? A big ask.
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Cat 5 winds well over 150kts now recorded in the normally weak se quad......up to 8 miles from the eye.
In other words cat 5 winds probably over an 18-20 diametre area.
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Another pass pressure 910-911mb and unflagged winds of 176kts
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Forecast my nhc. A small 30 miles from a Florida hit. But will probably adjust west imo.
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And here is the discussion from nhc
"A blend of these measurements yield to an initial intensity of 155 kt, making Dorian the strongest hurricane on record in the northwestern Bahamas."
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Probably the most important nhc update of the year so far for it up.
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Forgot to add 06z meto ens mean had a hit into Florida.
Hurricane Delta
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted · Edited by Iceberg
NHC have just officially raised it back to a Major Cat 3 storm 100kts but with more strengthening to come.
I can’t see how a cat 4 won’t happen personally and raw T numbers are 6.7 only .3 Below a cat 5. Which is possible but unlikely
DELTA REGAINS MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...