Iceberg
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Posts posted by Iceberg
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Sustained 50kts winds clearly onshore hurricane sustained are just coming onshore now. Many many miles away from the centre.
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Raw dvorak has increased to 7.4 showing that the system is still strongly intensifying.
This is the highest dvorak of the year and equates to a mid cat 5.
Banding and ring analysis on ir is incredible
Winds are not at this yet.
NOAA are just doing another pass.
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931.7mb just recorded on a centre fix.
125kts surface winds.
so 130kts look possible/likely at landfall, particularly with pressure still dropping and strengthening
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pressure 934mb just recorded
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pressure of 938 just recorded
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Nhc have just updated for their 10am.
943mb.
120kts current.
Increasing to 125kts at landfall.
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Last pressure was a bit lower than that Steve. Even a bad vdm drop has 945mb.
The eye is clearing and the deeper convection is wrapping around the eye again so more intensification occurring.
Despite this the affects at are now being felt on the panhandle as the cdo starts to come ashore.
A classic pinhole eye.
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2 120kts surface winds in the ne quad. Annoyingly the min pressure reading was corrupt.
Give this somewhere between 125-140kts looks likely for landfall.
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The storm is starting to become a once a lifetime occurrence.
This is not a forecast and their isn’t time for things to change much. Once the cdo reaches the coast it will be too late for any safe evacuations.
Latest sat shows it approaching.
I know that dvorak seems to be overestimating things but raw dvorak is still increasing and is now 7.3. Easily cat 5 sustaining. And highest dvorak of the year of any storm.
Re the ec above its sustained gusts of 150mph seems insane however it had min pressure in the 940s. This is already too high and even that is underestimating things.
Recon are just moving north to take a pass thru the ne quad.
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For comparison a chart from September same details for hurricane Florence.
Winds are forecast to be considerably higher than Florence re same timeframes.
Florence managed to mess up an erc and so the core was ragged prior landfall.
It looks like Michael will be strengthening prior landfall will a strong core.
at least atm
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3hr gust winds from the ec just rolling out.
These are mph.
Michael is certainly going to have the biggest wind affects of any hurricane this year. Storm surge too will obviously be a problem.
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Flash update from nhc.
...MICHAEL BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...
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Pressure now 941 just recorded. Some insane se quad flight winds of 136kts. But several over 130kts
given the ne quad is normally stronger then 140-145kt flight winds seems conservative
given all this he is probably a cat 4 and still strengthening
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Pressure down to 942.9mb so still falling quite rapidly.
Sub 940 pretty certain prior landfall
No winds yet from the ne quad.
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According to officials nhc update Michael is now 947mb 125mph. Bearing down on Panama City.
Slider shows a very strong system still intensifying as deeper convection raps around the eye yet again.
As nhc mention in the latest update dvorak doesn’t seem to be too acccurate. However current dvorak would support a cat 5 hurricane.
Recon flight winds are increasing I think best yet are 130kts, but recon has not been recent and new recon data should be interesting
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8 minutes ago, biggreyface said:
Is this likely to have any impact on the intensification of this system
The eye is stringing. Which will lead to some big pressure drops imo. In turn a tighter grad. So a sharp small eye wall once convective banding has finished.
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The eye is really being squashed by the convective burst.
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16 minutes ago, Iceberg said:
Recon pass just now pressure 958mb and flight winds in the weakest se quad 109kts.
Given this 105kts seems realistic from nhc in 10-20mins. But 120-125kts possible next 12-24hrs.
And nhc update. A MAJOR hurricane now
The eye of Michael became very distinct in both visible and infrared satellite pictures early this afternoon, but has been a little more cloud filled since that time. Very deep convection has continue to develop over the southeastern and eastern portion of the eyewall and rotate around the north and west sides. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 109 kt in the northeast eyewall as it exited the storm just prior to 1800 UTC, and another Air Force Hurricane Hunter very recently made its first pass through the eye and reported similar flight-level winds in the southeast quadrant, and a minimum pressure of 957 mb, down about 8 mb over the past few hours. Based on these observations and Dvorak satellite classifications of 115 kt and 102 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, the initial intensity has been increased to 105 kt for this advisory.
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Recon pass just now pressure 958mb and flight winds in the weakest se quad 109kts.
Given this 105kts seems realistic from nhc in 10-20mins. But 120-125kts possible next 12-24hrs.
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Continues to get better on sat ir.
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Pin really starting to become clear with firing towers in the se in the newly formed eyewall very quickly developing from the small traces only 30-45 mins ago.
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Close up from ramb slider visual and ir.
very impressive to the north, but the southern quads are still weak.
Smaller possible pinhole eye developing with traces of smaller eyewall in the se quad.
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Both raw and adjusted Dvorak are clear cat 4 120-125kts predictions.
I dint think hes there yet but very likely prior landfall
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Yep 968-969mb. With winds just touching 90kts in the ne quad. Sw quad quite a bit weaker.
A hurricane will often lag dvorak which is really where the winds and pressure Will be once the hurricane has responded to how it looks on sat reprensention
He does look might good atm. And raw dvorak is even stronger at 100-110kts.
So he say currently 90kts with potential already to go to 110kts but possibly even higher
Hurricane Michael
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
yep official update to 125kts.
i would say noway for an erc, he doesnt seem interested.
IR shows he is still strengthening, another dose of cloud towers are working back round the eye again.
One factor might be the choking affect as Michael moves towards sure, we are already seeing it a bit imo, drier slots appearing as inflow and outflow are curtailed.
still 130kts seems likely. and pressure of 925mb or so at landfall.