Iceberg
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Posts posted by Iceberg
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Looking stunning still and just approaching the first island.
He is still intensifying according to dvorak.
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From nhc special update.
The eyewall of catastrophic Hurricane Dorian is currently reaching the Abaco Islands. This is a life-threatening situation. Residents there should take immediate shelter. Do not venture into the eye if it passes over your location. Hazards: - Wind Gusts over 200 mph - Storm Surge 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas. and will continue for several hours.
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Pressure already down to 918.3 with wine also unflagged surface of 170kts in the se quad
That's 195mph
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Recon update.
923mbps
Flight winds of 159kts and 172kts surface flagged
Flight 156kts and surface 155kts unflagged.
So still getting stronger and sub 920mb likely in the next few hrs.
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Unfortunately for the Bahamas and Florida the soundings and reckon data point to more resistant ridge than the models have been forecasting. Even the 00z models probably were not adjusted enough.
given this further West movement is likely. Equally problematic is less potential prior to a Florida hit now.
the strongest winds are approx 8-10 miles from the centre. So if the eye wall skirts the coast..all coastal communities will be catastrophic ally effected.
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Finally he has been upgraded to a Category 5 hurricane.officially
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First pass in in.
Pressure 925\926mb. Massive fall.
Flight winds of 150kts.
4 surface winds in row over 140kts maxing at 158kts a full 20kts above a cat 5.
Maybe Just maybe a cat 5 upgrade now in about 10mins
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He looks the best he has ever been on ch 13...
Dvorak is also the highest it has been for dorian.
So a stronger storm should be found in the next 20 mins
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With the uncertainty and a Florida hit is as high as 50% imo. It's beyond silly that a successful eye pass hasn't been done now for 8 hrs.....
this is coming down on the Bahamas and is really close to the us , but they can't do 6hrly plots let alone 3 hr fixes....
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21 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:
Does anybody have the UKMO ensemble mean?
I don’t have a link but this chart shows the mean and it’s about 5-10miles offshore Florida ie eye wall probably just hits the coast.
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Latest ec high res
freeport Bahamas population of that part of the island 100000.
Ec has a direct ne quad hit. Winds widely of 100-110mph sustained. Rising to 120-125mph in other frames. And with peak gusts probably another 20-30mph higher as a minimum.
Lasting for many hrs.
Also hurricane winds now for Florida at the first glance., second...third. And so on.
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Sniper taken from nhc discussion this morning
Both aircraft measured peak flight-level winds that support an initial intensity of 130 kt. There have been some higher surface wind estimates from the SFMR, but these data are questionable based on our experience of very high SFMR-measured wind speeds in recent strong hurricanes that didn't match standard flight-level wind reductions.
Explains their reasoning. However I have to say I've only ever seen one or two recordings ignored. We've had close to 40 now..all flights from yesterday afternoon have recorded them. We've also had multiple dropsondes, small devices dropped from the aircraft that measure winds temp dew point at various levels as it goes down, give various data points to back up the sfmr.
This is taken from the nhc discussion that raised dorian to a cat 4 .
"A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft this evening has measured peak SFMR winds of 119 kt, and a dropsonde dropped in the northeastern eyewall had mean winds in the lowest 150 m that also supported winds of 118 kt, so the initial wind speed has been raised to 120 kt."
so a single one of each can raise Dorian to 120kts but multiple ones can't raise to 140kts? Whether it's 130kts or 140it's matters not much apart from a cat 5 would receive more media attention.
Anyway path is getting worrying again for Florida. Both ec and gfs have moved considerably towards Florida. Now only a whisker away. Also increased are the nc sc chances...not unexpected but following Florida media they were under the impression they had missed it.
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There has he n a notable shift West on most 18z runs. The 00z certainly be interesting. Florida is not yet clear.
more 140+kt winds measured.
every single run now has measured cat 5 smfr winds. They are not backed up with dvorak or flight but there is only so long and So many recordings you can put down to inaccuracy...
Now at 147kts so recording a full 10kts above cat 5.
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Just reported from the n e eye wall
134
140
140
135
130
All surface, all in a row.
It would be difficult to not perform a special upgrade based in this.
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They don't quite buy the cat 5 yet..
upgraded to 130kts now so just 7kts why of a cat 5
Forecast to rise to 135kts
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Another pass another reading of 137kts pressure seems to be rising maybe an erc
But a cat 5???
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Dilemma time.
Surface winds of 141kt and 145kt have been recorded whilst I was making a very nice Dorset Apple cake...
however dvorak and flight winds don't support this...
So decision time do NHC update to a 140kt Category 5 hurricane in 30 mins time of keep it just why at say 130\135kts and a cat 4.....
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142 flight winds, flagged 136kt surface and unflagged 127kts
I can't see too much more strengthening tbh however a cat 5 is only 137kts.
A strong storm
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Officially raised to 125it's
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS DORIAN STRONGER AND MOVING WESTWARD...
More data in a min
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well no recon for 8 hrs but thankfully the first one just completed.
Lack of funding is appealing and the aircraft keep breaking down....
Anyway. 939.8 just found and surface of 126 kts so a raise looks on the cards in 45 mins..
A chunk of dry air overnight had some impact and it's generally pretty dry ahead of him.
Models firming up on a run offshore Florida and then hitting nc or sc.....however the motion atm it pretty much due West and a little South than forecast.
The stall won't be modelled very well imo, but the Bahamas look to be getting a high cat 4 hit.
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My issue with the ec is that it stalls him a bit too much. Imo. Hence the weakness etc etc
I still think it will be just offshore Florida and into the Carolinas. However a glancing blow to land is still very possible.
In appearance he is starting to get the saw like shape of a mid cat 4.
Dvorak supports a cat 4 (just) and the eye is looking incredible in any view.
Nhc update at 10pm have upped him to a cat 3. Due to no recon for ages. A bit conservative imo.
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A few images.
A much more symmetrical looking Dorian. Dual channels formed.
Ohc. Ocean heat content. The amount of fuel available for Dorian. It looks like the fuel is only going to get more more potent particularly in the approach to Florida.
Also important for a stalling system, which is what Dorian is expected to do as it gets closer to Florida. Is the depth of the fuel. This looks increasing bad as well
there is just not much to prevent Dorian from going from bad to worse. As much I try and look.
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When plotted it looks similar to the ec , it leaves Miami more alone. But an extreme hurricane up the East coast is looking likely. Nice hot circle around the eye.
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Latest vis slider from a few mins ago.
Eye now clear.
Some be about to start the bout of intensification to reach a cat 4
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Hurricane Dorian
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
Pressure now 913mb
More surface winds are of 150-160kts
Sub 910 entirely possible