Iceberg
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Posts posted by Iceberg
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High res ec init at 965mb I think. Still way above though, it lead to lower pressure at landfall. Correct init with adj landfall would give around 935mb imho.
With 1-2ft of rain 8-10m storm surge, sustained winds of 150mph and gusts to 170mph. Wilmington doesn’t really stand a chance, if it stays as is.
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Upgraded to 120kts
Cat 5 is 137kts I believe. So a bit to go yet. But plenty of recon now.
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12z EC is a Wilmington hit again.
Not good news for a city of 100,000 people.
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Pressure now 940.9
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Recon pass just finished against 942.5 mb. 120kt (sustained) in both se and nw quad walls.
Winds still increasing, pressure looks to be stable for now.
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They won’t use that. Nhc use 30sec wind speed avg for cat.
A drop is purely gust speed as it falls. Pros need to be careful what they use imo.
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Raw t. Numbers have increased to 6.0.
T7.0 is considered a cat 5.
Re affects. I completely agree that rain will be the biggest, but I wouldn’t discount wind from being a big problem.
strong winds are really expanding out particularly in the north. With at least 1 erc likely then winds capable of destruction will expand out 200 miles and last many many hours.
Storm surge could be a really killer to. I am sure I saw nhc mention that they expect 5 high tides to be dangerously high due to the slow movement and angle of approach.
The danger is a push affect ie each tide is built upon as the water fails to go back out completely.
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8 minutes ago, Lauren said:
What kind of drop in pressure is considered normal and what is considered rapid in mb/hour?
I would say falling 15mb in 24 hrs would be considered good strengthening.
24mb-24hrs boardline RI.
Nhc classification of ri is 30kts is 24 hrs.
Wilma achieved a 100mb pressure drop in 30 hrs. Which is a record breaker.
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Flagged as rain contaminated but a measured surface wind in the southern quad of 122kts.
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Pressure sub 943 on that run.
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Official special update from nhc.
...FLORENCE BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Florence has continued to rapidly stregthen and has maximum sustained winds near 130 mph (195 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches).
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Nhc will probably go with 115kts.
Given the delay in winds to pressure falls. A rise to 125kts seems very likely over the next 12 hrs
beyond that is anyone’s guess
also official rapid intensification a fall of 37mb in 24 hrs
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It’s official recon have just passed through the centre and found
945mb
117kts surface winds
131kts flight winds
This is a cat 4 hurricane and the winds are still responding
nhc were way out on the 16.00 update. A new special update will be issued very very shortly.
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Blown out of the water inc the nhc.
Recon have already just found 958mb
and that was with 112kt surface winds in the weakest sw quad.
Its quite a bit lower than this. Thought nhc were a bit out. This is a cat 4 Storm.
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Razor sharp eye. What oh what pressure will they find?
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Florence is just stunning atm.
Every inch a top hurricane. Massive shame that recon hasn’t been giving us anything yet today.
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11 minutes ago, Lauren said:
I mean Katrina was a Cat 3 when she hit. Granted New Orleans is below sea level and levees failed but SC, NC and Virginia have a lot of low lying areas and island communities.
Totally agree.
The eye atm is the best I’ve seen this year. She’s doing the classic in high res slider and you can see small sections of the eye collapse and quickly reform allowing for the eyeto grow a touch. It means the eye instability is insane.
A cat 4 cane we just need the winds to catch up. Pressure could even be sub 960 by now.
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Discussion as well.
Florence is rapidly strengthening this morning. The satellite presentation has improved markedly overnight with a small 10-n-mi wide-eye becoming apparent in infrared satellite pictures. The upper-level outflow continues to expand over the northern and northwestern portions of the storm, but is somewhat restricted over the southeastern quadrant. Dvorak satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB supported an intensity of around 80 kt at 0600 UTC, but with the cooling of the cloud tops around the eye since that time, the initial intensity has been increased to 90 kt for this advisory.
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32 minutes ago, Lauren said:
At the rate this is going this could be the most devastating storm mainland USA has seen since Katrina.
Cat 5s are a breed to their own.
They are rare because the internal dynamics need to be very exact. The eye often become unstable at 120kts and above and inflow and outflow channels needs to be very well balanced. Ercs need to be undertaken normally and the eye wall needs to be stronger enough to sustain the cat 5 winds but weak enough to allow the erc to complete.
All of this on sufficient ocean heat content, low shear and normally an upper high.
A cat 4 is relatively simple compared to all this.
A cat 5 might be possible, but still needs a few things to come into play.
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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:
Ec has her track a little further nw this morning through the carolinas with ne part of s Carolina more at risk re flooding than previous ..... a whopping 47” ( in west of n Carolina ) the maximum and way inland as she stalls and slowly fills under the ridge
I’ve got her track from the ec a little further It’s def edging a little more towards South Carolina. (Now a boarder hit.
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Florence looks very impressive atm. She is really starting to sharpen the outflow and has a nice inflow channel. All signs of a major category hurricane. A cat 3 looks likely. Some signs of a cat 4 showing as well.
Quick update to say that in the last 20mins deep convection has fully wrapped the eye. We could be looking at a cat 4 eye. Winds might need some time to respond.
The close up is more recent.
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She is looking very good today.
A clear eye, some what wobbly, but a nice cdo, dry air now listed. And she is motoring.
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New update from nhc.
975mb pressure and 75kts.
They also forecast her to reach 130kts prior to landfall
The last reconnaissance fix indicated that the pressure had fallen to about 978 mb with Florence, a drop of about 6 mb in 4 hours, with uncontaminated SFMR winds of about 70 kt. Since then, the satellite presentation has continued to improve, with intensifying deep convection near the center. Thus the wind speed is set to 75 kt on this advisory.
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EC has a landfall at Wilmington.
Very consistent model output.
Hurricane Florence
in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Posted
Pressure is still dropping 938.8mb.
So sub 940mb