-
Posts
243 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Polarlow
-
-
Don't know much about this site, but heres the link, on the Gulf stream anomaly !!!
http://www.thebigwobble.org/2014/10/the-day-aftertomorrow-is-gulf-stream.html?utm_source=BP_recent
-
Interesting video on you tube !!!! M5.5 Earthquake Scotland....
- 1
-
BIG ONE..........
Magnitude Mw 5.5
Region ICELAND
Date time 2014-10-07 10:22:33.8 UTC
Location 64.45 N ; 17.45 W
Depth 15 km -
Just left of the radar, looks like a new fissure has opened up for sure !!!!!
Cam 2 is now fixed on it......
Just seen this blog.... Not a new fissure ........
-
While out shopping with the wife yesterday, a swarm of Jellfish clouds above Dundee, sadly I only had my mobile............
a bit clearer in the negative........
- 2
-
Strange readings from Grims !
-
Incredible footage ................... from...............
NASA !!!!!
- 7
-
What do you mean power outage ? Fissure died first, abruptly, but dopplar was still visible for 5-10mins after, then gradually faded.....
Like a bank of Fog rolled in and blocked our view ... I think cams are still working ! ?... just guessing
-
I`m still thinking heavy Fog !!!
- 1
-
Can it be A blanket of Fog just rolled in and obscured everything ?
-
Doppler radar lights very faint must be smoke and Ash !!! Looks like it blew ????
Doppler is 25km from Barda !!!
-
M4.5 KATLA !!!!!!!!
-
THe blinking lights of the sensor are still visible
Caldera dropped 1.1meters in last half hour !
Eruption stopped again !!!!!!!! ???????????
-
Fissure eruption has just died .......... Whats happening ........... WOW !!!!
-
Big one Guessing M5.8 !!!!
Could be the biggest Quake since eruption begun !!!
-
I actually stumbled across an airshow 2 weeks ago in Sunderland. Huge crowds on a very HOT day !!
Heres a few pics
- 2
-
Just came across this blog !!!
Irpsit
August 18, 2014 at 19:57
Important update.
I can now tell you, at this level of activity, we still need to wait several weeks until we see a proper sized eruption. Unless a string of M5 quakes hits, then an eruption would just be hours away, if that number of M5 quakes is near 10 (or same equivalent cumulative seismic energy), or one M6 event or near that.
Why is this?
The GPS stations at both sides of the intrusion taking place at Bardarbunga show a lateral displacement of around 2cm per day (1cm/day in both directions).
During the last rifting event at Bardarbunga, the rifting displacement was around 1.5 meters (150cm) as the fissure opened, over some 15km. Let’s say we expect an event about half of it. To be on the conservative side. And 7km is just the same as Gjálp.
At this rate, we will need 35 days, to see a displacement of 75cm as the rift opens.
Total energy combined is probably equivalent to a M5. Until yesterday I calculated total energy to be about M4.5. Today it nears M5 (total cummulative seismic energy). That equates to a displacement of a few cms, which is what is actually taken place. Which is too little!
One M6 equates to a displacement of 50cm, so it is near what it is necessary to see such a fissure ripping apart of sufficient lenght; or a string of 10 quakes at M5.
Thus until this moment, only about 1/10th of the threshold energy has been released.
So this gives 10 times longer time, until we see an eruption of the type I assumed, if the current level of activity keeps.
But a few M5 quakes would quickly speed the process, to only a few days necessary.
So I predict to see either more 9 times of intrusions with the same sort of intensity (if such activity would now stop – which seems to be unlikely at the moment), or this intrusion continues for more 35 days (until mid September), or the energy increases until the level of several M5 or one M6 event (which at current level of increasing activity is just a few days ahead). If this intrusion continues for some more days but then dies down, then we would still need another one or few repeats of same intensity, until a fissure event.
Consider this the threshold.
Now, you know when to expect the start of the eruption.
Simple maths.
Irpsit
August 18, 2014 at 20:01
-
A pic I took a few years ago and Todays pic !!!
Amazing !!!!
- 3
-
Looks like a lot of Rain In Cork !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
-
Taken during the July 16th Storm over Dundee, from my bedroom window....
- 1
-
Thunder and Lightning storm just passed over Dundee...
-
Good old Thunder and Lightning storm just passed over Dundee
-
A few strikes from last weeks storm in Dundee
- 1
-
approaching storm in Dundee last week
- 3
Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity
in Space, Science & nature
Posted
very shallow as well !!!!!!