ghrud
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Posts posted by ghrud
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5 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:
-3236 uppers over the north pole on chart 2. Another ice age?
I think there might be a minus sign hiding under the snow somewhere!
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Better keep an eye on the weather
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Best example of how a models accuracy fades the further ahead you look!
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Well I totally refute what he says but as he didn't give a link to the source of his data I will just add some information that very much indicates he is incorrect.
The Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) database archives the 122,414 records of the extent of 117,201 glaciers covering 420,859 km2 , re[resenting well over half the glaciers on earth.
Over what period of time has this data has been accumulated. Whats being compared?
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Potential.
Potential?
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Morning, I'm really not surprised there is no excitement at the prospect of this potential channel low given all the let downs this winter, however this little thing might just be the consolation goal a lot of people may well enjoy albeit the wet aspect is not good.
If you mean this...
...maybe some sleety rain for the high ground.
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Loving this! Will miss a couple of frames out but....
Westerly theme Saturday morning.
Secondary low forms about 400 miles west of Ireland...
Heads for the NW bringing W/SWerlies....
Slap bang over Scotland bringing NWerlies....
Slides SE bringing easterlies to northern areas and N/NWerlies to most of the rest of the UK with heights building again over all of the north and the original low flattening out....
Sinks further SE inviting colder air from the NE and hopefully more E on the next run as the low sinks south...
Also, Atlantic high extending further north meeting the Greenie high creating a block for anything heading out of Canada?
... and then low leaving eastern seaboard USA on strong jet, flattens ridging high and we're back to square one.
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I measured 0.00cms, stalled 5 miles to my west, bet Gnosall and places got a pasting, you not mean south side of house? wind from S
No north side. Drifting snow settles in the shelter of objects that break the force of the wind.
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Tonight's run seems to suggest what NOAA talked about last night.
THIS SUGGESTS A
SUBSTANTIAL SUBSEASONAL CLIMATE EVENT IS FORECAST TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE CONUS
Translate please.... its okay answered my own question.
CONUS = Contiguous United States -
Latest GFS 8 day temperature anomaly, lots of cold building for eastern and north eastern Europe now, for the UK its a mixed bag slightly below normal for the north and Ireland, but slightly above normal for the south, some western coasts and Wales
Gav, just to point out thats not above normal for the south - it's 0.2 - 2C mate, while the rest of the UK remains below.
"slightly below normal for the north and Ireland, but slightly above normal for the south" so the emphasis is average temps for now then.
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SSW anyone? I think that before we get excited about snowy synoptics and when they might appear, or equally get hung up on what seems to be eternal zonality, it is these sorts of charts we want to see repeated. The building blocks are more important than the specifics first and foremost. These can completely alter the model output over time so take nothing for granted beyond high resolution charts.
Yes but that chart is 2 weeks away and then there is another week to 10 days before it might have an effect lower down..
"Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) can take anything from a few days to a few weeks for this process to take place." Quote from metofficenews
In in which case an effect may take hold in 15 days from now if prediction verifies or well into March. The warming being model here is not in our half of the Northern Hemisphere... d'you think this would also be a negative?
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UK Outlook for Tuesday 14 Jan 2014 to Thursday 23 Jan 2014:Just to cheer all you coldies up, have a look at the latest Met O 6-15 day outlook!
On Tuesday there will be some rain over northeast Scotland and showers in the west and southwest. However eastern parts are likely to be fine and dry, with frost and a risk of fog patches at first. Strong winds and further rain, heavy at times, are likely to spread from the southwest during Wednesday. Through the week it may become cold in the northeast, with strong easterly winds and wintry showers. Western and southwestern parts are probably going to be less cold and cloudier with further rain. Later in the month it is likely to become less cold and more changeable, with sunny spells and showers or longer periods of rain, these perhaps more likely in the northwest.
Updated: 1149 on Thu 9 Jan 2014
Sorry, but not cheered by this
too much. I live in Hampshire. But who knows? -
cyclonic happiness, on 18 January 2013 - 20:04 , said:
Nice trough coming over central England tomorrow, that should give a few more surprises?
Is that not a 'dead' front? Note how the semi-circles and triangles are not filled with black.
I thought that indicated it was a upper front that is not in contact with the surface and is riding over the top of the colder air.
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I really feel this will be a short lived cool snap that is being massively overdone by the models & will stick my neck on the line to say there will be very little snow at low levels in England,mainly sleet & mainly dry in Scotland, the easterly's will only last a few days not allowing the really cold air to arrive before a slow breakdown from the west. I know this is not what people want to hear & is defiantly not what I want to be posting on here as I am a massive snow fan. I am no where near as knowledgeable as a lot of people on here but I do tend to have a knack of being right when it comes to forecasting weather. But I am hoping that I will be wrong & really don't mind if I get slated for being wrong providing we get the cold weather everyone is after
Reverse psychology, I like your thinking.
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Atlantic, Bartlett, Early Spring, Zonal, Faux Cold,
Your boys took one hell of a beating
(normal caveats apply!)
It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings! MORE runs needed
But I like this one...
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Shannon entropy is the average unpredictability in a random variable.
Sorry just noticed others have already answered this.
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But surely any snow within 6 days was unlikely anyway given the SSW was only today.
We really shouldnt be looking for any widespread snow for another 2/3 weeks given propogation time.
SSW is the bonus, nothing to stop us having normal winter weather maybe mild maybe cold.... even cold enough for snow. Still need to wait and see where the centre of high pressure is going to build.
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I think part of the problem is that some are expecting too much too soon following some encouraging model runs recently. If we step back and look, the other day no real cold was being expected until mid-late month. That's not changed in my view and the posts from IF state the situation perfectly.
There will probably be an amazing pub run later showing -10 uppers and countrywide snow next weekend, but it will have to be taken with exactly the same bucket of salt as the 12z just passed!
Most sensible post I've read all day.
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SnowTornado, on 05 January 2013 - 10:36 , said:
I knew someone would mention the stratosphere. Warming there that's set to occur are still forecasted warmings. So if the forecast for that to happen is wrong then the implications to our weather towards a colder outlook may not happen. People always seem to think stratospheric warming and AO Nao and all the other teleconections GP talks about are guarenteed. They are still all forecasts. And as with the weather forecasts they don't always occur
And, why not 'mention the stratosphere'?
You are right enough about NAO and AO, however: they are nothing more than indices that are derived from what the synoptic models are predicting...The state of the stratosphere, in contrast, has enormous potential as a forecasting tool; which, IMO, fully justifies the current interest in it...
Yes I agree it is okay to mention the SSW as is part of the weather systems and will have an impact. I think the point being made though is that too much hope is being pinned on an event that may well have no effect at all in this part of the world. It’s being treated as a panacea for all our cold winter (lack of) woes. Let’s talk about it, but not like it's the answer to the world the universe and everything.
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For those who missed what John Hammond had to say about mid month last night the forecast is available here jump to 2:15 if you want to skip the rest of it http://www.bbc.co.uk...her_03_01_2013/
Use the right bate and you’ll catch a lot of fish (not Michael). I still think too much hope is being pinned on the SSW event. Raise your expectations too high and it will hurt even more when we miss out… yet again!
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A couple of members, along with the Op, bring in colder air relatively earlier;
A clear trend to colder conditions in the 2m temps;
What area are these charts for?
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in case anyone missed it and due to some posts commenting on the longer range model output, some people obviously did-
fergieweather, on 03 January 2013 - 01:10 , said:Just to re-stress a key point, as some might have overlooked it, judging by certain frustrated posts! UKMO emphasizes again (in new 6-15d briefing) how potential cold/blocked outcome from incipient SSW remains v possible but crucially how this may not be manifested within their current 10-15d forecast period. So - as others have also tried to stress - NOTHING in any NWP output in further reaches of MR should be taken with even moderate confidence! We are entering a truly fascinating & potentially rewarding period for this thread.. but it'll take time! I'm hoping to hear tomorrow how the good folk at Hadley Centre are assessing fortunes from this SSW.
Hope I'm wrong, but it seems many are pinning too much on the sudden strat warming event forcast and the possible effects it may have.
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Downward trend of the 850hPa temperatures continues on the 18z ensembles, it has been showing this on all of today's runs, including some of yesterdays.
What location is this graph for? Cardiff?
too much. I live in Hampshire. But who knows?
Cold hunt - models and chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Records to beat: -
19.7degC 67.5degF Greenwich (London) 13 Feb 1998
19.5degC 67.1degF Tivington (Somerset) 13 Feb 1998
19.4degC 67degF Cambridge 27 Feb 1891
19.2degC 66.6degF March (Cambridgeshire) 23 Feb 1990
18.9degC 66.1degF Harestock (Hampshire) 28 Feb 1891
18.9degC 66degF London; Brixton 10 Feb 1899
18.9degC 66degF London; Greenwich and Northolt 28 Feb 1959
http://www.torro.org.uk/maxtemps.php