ghrud
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Posts posted by ghrud
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Oops wrong room... I thought this was the Arctic Ice Discussion, sorry!
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You can talk about it, and it has been talked about, in the Antarctic Ice Discussion thread.
Perhaps a thread should be started where we can talk about both without being chastised. Climate is a global phenomenon after all?
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As always jethro, it's the trend that counts. I think by this stage we've lost a lot more than 10% of ice extent and well over a third of the thickness, which is a significant difference imo.
With dwindling resources, increasing food prices and increasing numbers on the poverty line, I think anything that could have potential negative global impacts (whether it be from man made or natural sources) should be closely scrutinised in the hope of gaining an improved understanding and prediction methods.
As Dr Stroeve mentioned on the WUWT comments sections
"One comment from the modeling results from the CMIP5 archive, the models do show trends of sea ice loss during the 1920s/1940s consistent with the warming trend during that time-period. I don’t see this in the sea ice records that date that far back (i.e. Chapman and Walsh), but that’s in large part because the ice cover has observational gaps and has been filled in with climatology. These trends rival some of what we saw in the 1990s, but not what we’ve seen the last decade. I know these are model results so some here may disregard them all together."
10% of what... what is the starting point. 10% of an average of the last 30 years data? 30 years in climate is like the blink of the eye.
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Also spot the mistake above, someone at the met office thinks were in February still
Mistake or just comparing late February to early March?
unsettled spells are likely to be less frequent than during late February and early March and rainfall over at least eastern
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Climatalogical averages for England and Wales data page seems to be stuck in May??
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It's been reported on the Real Science WEB site that the Arctic ice has started to re-freeze suggesting this one of the shortest melts recorded this year. Anyone like to comment on this?
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I did, I said the reason is us.
I answered that as well
To repeat, if the ice goes (permanent ice) and I think it probably will, I think it will be some time before it returns. Why? Because the best evidence is it take a long time for a slug of CO2 to slowly sequestrate so the climate, is going to stay warm for some considerable time.
You're making the assumption that a theory about CO2 adversely warms the atmosphere is true. Keep an open mind and look at it objectively. The ice may well be completely gone in 20 years or so but the reason may have nothing to do with CO2.
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To quote Dr Walt Meier posting at WUWT (yes WUWT!) "… what we’re seeing is that the MYI [multi-year ice] just is not surviving like it used to. There is now almost no ice older than 4 years old remaining in the Arctic. This is a stark and fundamental change in the character of the Arctic sea ice."..."[tamino asks ]Is this truly something new, or does it happen all the time? Dr. Meier addresses the common (but faulty) claims that things were pretty much the same in the early or mid 20th century, concluding:
However, this doesn’t mean conditions in the past were anything like today. They were not."
The Arctic ice is changing, in a fundamental way. The big experiment with the planet humanity is undertaking is well under way.
Anybody know how you tell how old a piece of ice is? Ice re-freezes from below as well as to the sides, snow accumulates on the surface and due to ocean storms and swell ice slabs ride over each other. Is there a definitive guide to measure ice age other than from its thickness?
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However bizarre it first seems the midsummer sun (24hrs) over the Arctic delivers the biggest wallop of energy (per sq metre of surface) than anywhere on the planet!
http://www.applet-magic.com/insolation.htm (scroll down to the table and check the summer solstice figures)
around 12.64 Kw/m2 (the equator max's out at 10.22Kw/m2)
Yes but for how long... six weeks? The equator would be at that rate 52 weeks a year.
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Cor! busy little board!
What are the odds of your house burning down in any 1 year? or exploding? or collapsing? pretty darn slim eh? (notice I didn't use 'flooding' as those odds are shortening) but you still take out insurance don't you? It's all about loss management and if the losses are so huge (should the worse happen) then you insure yourself? How big are the 'losses' should the middle path of the IPCC models be correct? What madness to not prepare for such!
C'mon guys, as we found this year the measure is not how much ice forms but how much 'survives' melt season surely??? If we melt out any extra ice each spring/early summer (extra ice has to be around the edges doesn't it?) then where are we?
Cold summers with good ice retention (and high summer albedo) is the only way to 'rebuild a pack' is it not??? It's like filling a bath real fast knowing that once the plugs out all the water will drain.......where's the fun in that?
We're probably facing the same odds of the next ice-age starting sometime soon as the IPCC being right with their predictions... shouldn't we also be preparing for the possibility of this event too?
Even a minor shift in climate either way could be a disaster for mankind! -
CJWRC, you may or may not agree with G-W, you may or may not believe that he can be unconsciously selective (good old confirmation bias) in what he presents us with in his many, many (nearly 8,000 more than you) posts over the years. (How many have you actually read since you joined us in July?)
But what I would suggest is that you would be unwise, unfair, and frankly insulting to believe that he has not looked at, in detail, a great deal more data on every possible aspect of ice coverage and thickness in the last few years than most people on here will do in their lifetimes - certainly me, and very possibly you too.
So, please avoid the cheap (and inaccurate) shots. G-W may be many things you do not like, but ignorant - or, your only alternative, a liar - ain't two of them.
I wouldn't call GW ignorant or a liar either... just very blinkered some times. Also, posting more than 8000 times doesn't make you an expert, it just means you like to talk a lot. I do sometimes find something interesting to read in his posts though.
Just to give some balance here is a quote from thedailygreen.com from back in March this year.
Something Odd for the Arctic:"Normal" Sea Ice Extent as Winter Ends
As the winter freeze ends, there's more ice in the Arctic than at any time in recent years. Is this another PR problem for global warming activists?
Read more: http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/latest/arctic-sea-ice-0330#ixzz10iJpTrtT
Lets see what happens this winter...
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My bathroom (with a full ,hot, bath) stays pretty steamy for a while with the light off???
And it's not 2 miles deep either???
Everyone to their own... it's entirely up to you what you get up to in your bathroom.
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"Researchers say projections of summer ice disappearing entirely within the next few years increasingly look wrong."
"But computer models projecting a disappearance very soon - 2013 was a date cited by one research group just a few years ago - seem to have been too extreme."
"But the 2040/2050 figure that's been quoted a lot - that's still on track. It could end up being wrong, of course, but the data we have don't disprove it."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-11322310
They don't have enough data yet to prove/disprove anything! It would take centuries to collect enough data by which time the evidence would be purely academic as by then we’d already know the answer.
By the time we get to 2050 my grandchildren will probably look back and wonder what all the fuss was about as they excavate a hole through the winter ice-cover of the English Channel to do a bit of fishing. :unsure:
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On a glacial time scale the last 30 years is just a blink of an eye and therefore the current data record we have is meaningless, purely academic. Wait a couple of hundred years then we can all debate whether the world is about to end. :unsure:
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I notice that in FI there is an appearance of the fabled 'Iberian Thruster' high
just what on earth does that mean?
I think it's code for Bartlett high! :lol:
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Merely commenting on the synoptics of the chart; PV stuck like a leech to Greenland, HP stuck to the south and west of us and a resultant damp, dreary southwesterly airflow. Not what
I tend to like to see in February and a very hard pattern to shift. Regardless of what we saw in early January, if that pattern got locked in, the cold would be a distant memory believe me.
FWIW in general, the cold spell was exceptional for a number of places and it was nice to witness. Though for my neck of the woods it was nothing exceptional as we tended to miss a lot of the heaviest falls by 20-30 miles (Manchester was a different story) so I do feel slightly disappointed hence my desire for another bite at the cherry. I have seen the weather here more severe in polar northwesterly in March in terms of snowfall
Just to add, some senior and respected members are getting a lot of stick at the moment due to their views on a possible mild February. This is a perfectly plausible evolution at the moment, I was dubious of such an outcome a week or two ago but I must admit I am leaning towards this eventuality now.
Wouldn't a HP stuck to the south and west of us give a west or NW airflow
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Latest meto update is definately not following the gfs 00z or 06z, more likely the ukmo or ecm or perhaps even the gem model but not the gfs. I'm not sure what the meto do when they construct their update but it appears they are going with a wintry outlook and below average temps which is good enough for me. Even some significant windchill at times..very nice.
When it comes down to it computer models are just a tool. There always has be to someone human at the end. For now anyway
So lets hope the humans are right. -
Funny how the gfs 06z resembles the ecm yesterday, swings and roundabouts really. As for this weekend, dull, dry and boring with near average temps sums it up.
I've just look at this and thought exactly the same thing. So everything still confused a the moment hopefully we can get some concensus in the next couple of runs.
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I think the main 3 are in pretty good agreement up until T96 at which point FI begins. Hopefully, tomorrow we'll have a better insight but my view is two rights don't make the other wrong. If you know what I mean. :excl:
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I think all the models have a bias towards the Atlantic and rightly so as most of our weather originates there. Taking this in to consideration the fight that appears to be lined up for next Wednesday may be a closer match that some believe. On several recent runs of both the GFS and ECM a small depression is show to run just south of or along the English channel around what is now T120. How or if this actually develops, I believe is the key as to whether we have another bite of the cherry. (That’s if you’re a cold lover.)
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Just wondering which model Michael Fish has used, because his forecast looks very promising, but models dont show that, does look good though tue/wed with cold continental air on gfs 12Z
I think he (Michael Fish) was suggesting that the Barlett High, which isn't (it would have to sit over Iberia to be a Batlett), will join forces with the mega high to our east which will help it re-assert itself. This is an idea the models seem to have backed away from at the moment, but lets see.
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It seems amazing to me that how hard we try in this country just to get 1 week of lying snow nowadays, the Russians have come up with a plan to save on disruption, what are peoples views on playing with mother nature like this, and do you think it is worth saving money on the lack of disruption caused.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/time/20091017/wl_time/08599193082200
Paul S
I think this article should have been saved for the 1st of April. :lol:
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As well as the early start to winter being reported in the media also noted two reports about age of sea ice which contradict each other.
Full article can be found here http://fourwinds10.comAccording to the NSIDC, second-year ice this summer made up 32% of the total ice cover on the Arctic Ocean, compared with 21% in 2007 and 9% in 2008. Clearly, Arctic sea ice is not following the consensus touted by Gore and the warm-mongers....and
Full article here http://news.bbc.co.ukThe Arctic Ocean could be largely ice-free and open to shipping during the summer in as little as ten years' time, a top polar specialist has said.Hope we don't have to wait too long to find out who's right!
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Does anyone have a view on whether the early (record breaking) start to winter in parts of North America and Northern Europe will have an effect on our coming winter period?
http://austriantimes.at/news/General_News/2009-10-12/17147/Early_snow_records_set_to_be_broken
http://www.montanasnewsstation.com/Global/story.asp?S=11295113
Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 12th Dec
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by ghrud
But, if we had had the computers able to model this scenario in advance in 1978 would they have predicted that outcome? Probably yes! Is there anything resembling this being modelled at the moment? No.... but we can hope.