Geordiesnow
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Posts posted by Geordiesnow
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2 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:
Possibly 1cm here before it started raining couple hours ago, all going now
, looking at the radar for the last 12 hours we were quite lucky to even get anything, looks like most of cumbria missed out
Still more than what I got but I feel your pain really.
At least you should have some snow covered hills nearby I suspect by tomorrow morning at least, may even consider a visit to Cumbria just too hopefully see some significant snow on the ground it's that desperate!
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Definately the consolation prize as barely any of this snow is lying. Would love to be living on higher ground in Cumbria today!
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Finally heavier stuff, blizzards for this area standards!
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1 minute ago, damianslaw said:
BBC weather still going for snow over Scotland but now expecting it to hit central belt eve rush hour. They barely mentioned NW England, can they not see the radar..
Not much further snow past hour, just very light flakes.
I expect the main band due to hit soon will result in dewpoints rising, big wet snowflakes which in time may not stick, but we may see a few cms before that happens.
I don't think the band is further south, you can see the stuff in the western isles, that's all part of the same system. They just have to be patient up there, it will(surely) arrive for them.
As I say it will be interesting watching the radar development. A lack of a onshore wind has helped things for sure but that will surely increase during the day.
As for tonight, it all depends when the westerly feed gets cut off and if there is still PPN around. Models on the face of it suggests once that westerly feed is cut off(around midnight it seems) and the colder air tries to head southwards again it will fizzle any PPN out. Be interesting how it all develops.
I reckon we may see some surprises in the north of the region like Carlisle perhaps.
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Got a light dusting/covering. Probably the only member from Lancashire southwards that has not got a decent covering. Radar kind of sums it up in terms of an infamous rain shadow of the mountains in the isle of man and across the bay it would seem. Won't be there when the rain arrives!
Wasn't meant to be, I'll stick with my hunch I won't ever see 5+CMS of snow here.
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59 minutes ago, russwirral said:
Still pouring down with snow. Womt be long before theres 1cm cover. We dont normally get snow showers in these setups, this is rare. Bit of a surprise this.
Good too hear and make the most of it as those 850s are rising quicker than first predicted unfortunately.
I'll be surprised if anywhere within a few of miles from the coast is reporting snow by the morning.
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9 minutes ago, russwirral said:
AROME sets up a large streamer over northern Lancashire
If correct this could be similar to the event in Dec for Cumbria
Accept it will be the wet stuff and not the white stuff on low ground for the most part.
It will be interesting too see how it all develops but sadly the uppers are not cold enough for the majority. The question is how quick does the cold air digs down during the overnight period and will there still be PPN around to turn it back to snow.
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Well GFS06Z is a shocker really if your near the coast for Tuesday early morning potential, a good degree milder in the hpa temps and the consequence of that is temperatures around 2C and likely to be sleet at best. I do get the impression looking at the model runs and maybe even at the radar in general is that the coldest air of the northerly is not quite as far west as first thought hence that milder sector coming in and being quite large despite the shortwave being shallower than earlier predictions.
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2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
Tonight:
Largely dry and clear this evening but an increasing chance of wintry showers overnight. These becoming heavier later, giving a covering of snow and icy conditions in places. Widely frosty. Minimum temperature -4 °C.
Tuesday:
An icy start for many with perhaps some travel disruption. Further wintry showers through the morning, with more persistent snow, perhaps rain on coasts, developing across Cumbria later. Feeling cold. Maximum temperature 4 °C
See this is what I hate about the use of the term "wintry showers" because in my eyes wintry showers is a mix of sleet/hail/snow in a shower so if they say giving a covering later then they must be snow showers not wintry showers?
Either way going by the models no PPN is expected until the early hours? Unless of course showers unexpectedly pop up as the wind switches but the thicknesses are quite high so I'm not sure we got enough instability for showers to form.
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I wouldn't say the PPN over the Liverpool area wasn't forecast, the models did seem to of hinted some PPN heading through Cheshire and perhaps reaching the midlands but whether it would be cold enough for snow was always going to be the uncertainty(in fairness the models never really predicted much actual snow from it but there was always a chance)
I notice the shortwave on some recent runs is becoming shallower, this is helping the potential for southern Scotland as less wind and cold air is being bought into the mix and it might help with northern Cumbria also.
Will be interesting too see how it all develops.
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1 hour ago, Chris.R said:
Just enjoy the ride now relax don't overanalyse JUST nowcast.
Exactly, you can watch and look at many model runs as you like but it's what that radar says which ultimately decides what happens.
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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
METO updated 4am
Risk of disruptive snow tue
BBC downgraded Tues but now talking of significant snow Thurs...
Talking about contradictory!
I think for low lying areas near the coast Tuesday morning looks to be the best bet as a trough(or line of showers) heads in from the west. One of those make the most of it because the mild sector will come in regardless what happens.
As for the mess on Tuesday evening into Wednesday, it all depends how much cold air undercuts the PPN and whether the PPN is still there when it does. Higher ground should be fine, will be interesting too see how it develops with still a couple of days away.
On a side note the GFS shows what happens when the Azores low comes into play too much, really got to hope it's wrong.
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Just to note on the UKMO 72 and 96 hour charts. Bit interesting really, the way those isobars are angled and going by it's similar to what we seen with the GFS runs then that could mean the trough is over Scotland and not us, we will be left with a WSW'ly airflow with showers.
The good news is compared to the GFS, it wants to bring the trough down quicker overnight and if the undercut of cold air is quicker then it could be more snowy especially inland and higher ground places.
Then the 120 hour chart on paper looks good for our region with a snow risk from Blackpool southwards before pressure rises so not a bad run really.
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Whilst I doubt it will produce any lying snow, for those well south in the region like Cheshire, keep an eye on a little wave on the cold front tomorrow night which will pep up the PPN, the cold air is undercutting it and it's after dark so you never know however the models are going for some PPN to develop so something to keep an eye on.
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14 minutes ago, Backtrack said:
Really is just looking like a bog standard cold spell now. But did we really expect anything more? A 2/3 day northerly followed by a reload before milder air sweeps in by day 5. The net result being dry and slightly below average temperatures with night time temps not even dipping too low thanks to cloud.
Really is almost impossible to get a decent cold spell here anymore isn’t it.
I still say getting -12hpa air into the UK from a northerly is quite impressive, especially from a northerly that topples fairly quickly.
It's all down to location, If I'm living in Northern and Eastern Scotland, I be getting excited for some disruptive snow on sunday into Monday and then perhaps again later on in the week
For everyone else, it's a case of still keeping an eye on the models and just hope everything falls into place. The mild sector is annoying but it has always been forecast as the northerly topples. My worry remains the Azores low is going to influence things too much and we may struggle to get the coldest air from the reload leaving our region in a bit no mans land. Do hope I'm wrong on that but it seems from a glance looking at the models the front to the south is further northwards which has impacts for us.
Still alot of details to iron out unfortunately but it's safe to say a cold plunge on Sunday and Monday into the early hours of Tuesday followed by the milder sector and then after that is still a little up in the air for me regarding details.
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Just to add the 18Z ECM has slightly reduced the milder sector, still there but it's smaller in size and cold from Monday is a bit more stubborn on this run.
I think basically we need the shortwave as it topples the northerly not to produce a strong WSW'ly as this will mix out the air out more. The GFS and UKMO has quite a squeeze on the isobars whereas the ECM has it slacker. I don't think there is anyway we can avoid it but hopefully the size can reduce in the coming runs or the cold that is coming down on Monday proves more resilient.
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12 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
Agree fine to talk about the atlantic return as this is what the models are showing, but as you say, to dismiss snow prospects as a whole is wrong, people do quite rightly focus on their backyard and somehow can't comment when snow is likely somewhere else.
Also any posts saying no prospect any more snow or cold in the mod thread on 12 Jan instantly is meeted with a personal sigh!
Or posts where people are questioning the return of the Atlantic and dismiss it basing on nothing but hope(and maybe getting a few likes).
As for me, I think the return of the Atlantic is about 60% likely, the only doubts I have is if some short term changes which could alter the outlook or if an unexpected ridge can maybe slow the progress of the Atlantic weather returning.
Still if it happens, it does not fully mean we can't return to cold although I'll admit some of the charts are the worse you can get for winter.
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8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
Best stay in this thread in coming days, if you don't wish to read a gloomy mod thread, namely because snow prospects for southern parts look rather slim and the atlantic is set to return next weekend, get ready for the end of winter posts....
Don't have an issue with people talking about the Atlantic potentially returning, it's being strongly hinted at by the main models and it is a model output discussion. What I do have an issue is because it's not looking good IMBY, certain posters are dismissing at what looks to be the most potent northerly we seen for some good number of years. If the -12hpa air gets right into Scotland then that's for me is really impressive and the convection we are going too see in northern and eastern Scotland should be impressive(won't be surprised if we see reports of thundersnow).
Whilst it's 100% guaranteed we will see snow in those areas, for other areas it's less clear cut and I think that's where the negativity comes in but IF the reload of northerly winds win out and the cold air can flood down southwards, more areas will see snow.
The Atlantic will be blocked for 2 weeks by Friday next week so can't argue it's been a blocked spell of weather, just not always snowy.
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I think the best case scenario would be if the milder sector occurs but the main band of PPN is still to the north of us which is what the GFS charts are hinting at. Hopefully that will leave us with just weak convection for Tuesday daytime and if the cold air and it's reload northerlies do win out, it pushes the front south and the cold air slowly but surely undercuts it turning any PPN to snow.
Far too much detail to sort out between now and then though. We really still got to hope that Azores low don't get too far north to influence things in a bad way and potentially leaving us in no mans land.
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4 minutes ago, Chris.R said:
GFS 12Z is about the same as 0Z from this morning. It's worse but not a disaster imo. i'm taking no notice of the GFS convective precipitation as it doesn't have a hope at that range/resolution.
The mild sector on this run would see rain at the immediate coast but snow just a couple of miles inland to sea level. If I was being Conservative maybe over 50–100 m west of M6 brought down to sea level with any evap cooling. No problem east of M6. Still all to play for.
I actually think the trend has been for any feature to be further north again for Tuesday which won't be a bad thing given the less cold air.
From my experience you need at least -6hpa to be sure of snow if your inland and the flow is a westerly but with off shore ground winds(surface winds might be more southerly so off shore) and need to be around -8 for anything convective off a westerly.
One thing I will say if that feature is further north IF the cold northerlies do win out then that feature will head southwards and we might see a rain turning to snow situation but obviously subject to change at this range.
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3 minutes ago, The Northern Ramper said:
The southern bias has actually increased, it’s a joke and nothing gets done.
Its a good job we aren’t relying on that low to the south or I’d be losing my rag in there.
Speaking of that low, someone has said there has been an increase northwards in that low track on the ensembles, if so that probably not good news for us.
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9 minutes ago, Day 10 said:
It's this sudden westerly that's barged in, hope it switches back to a north westerly then we'll be in business.
GFS & UKMO
Someone posted in the model thread about the lack of shortwave on the 00Z run then the 12Z does have it. It makes sense why the 00Z run was cleaner in the end then.
Shows how a little shortwave can make a bit of a difference regionally.
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2 minutes ago, IDO said:
Yep not a nice chart but plausible for sure. It's one of those though where we could be looking at something different if things in the short term do change but at this stage, it's looking likely the Atlantic will return.
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3 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:
Weeks of potential has turned into a week of cooler than average conditions and frost. I fear many people will feel exactly the same. Been well and truly taken up the garden path once again.
Well depends how you interpret the outputs really. From what I seen we have seen upgrades to the initial northerly(albeit slightly set back on the 12Z runs in terms of instability) in terms of potency and the northerly was always forecast to collapse, that's been modelled by most runs for ages now. The question remains what happens after that collapse, do we get a reload and if so, how cold will that reload be, probably not quite the -12hpa air we may see in Scotland but if we can squeeze -10hpa then that's not too bad.
Snow chances with northerlies are always more limited, it's ashame the UK can't quite stay in the main instability part for too long but even so, if your living in northern and eastern Scotland, I expect some significant accumulations here.
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Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards
in Northwest Weather Discussion
Posted
No consistency in intensity, just moderate then lighter again but at least no signs of rain yet though.