Geordiesnow

18Z following the 12Z so more Atlantic air heads into France which means if a hot pool does head our way, it has to do it the long way round.

How much does high cloud affect temperature? Whilst it can be a nuisence at times to make the sunshine very hazy, I did not think it greatly affects temperatures due to it being so high in the atmosphere and thin in nature?

Funny how when we had those GFS runs people were hoping it would "downgrade" and when less hot temperatures are modelled its being described as a "poor" run. If its records your after then I would say we gone slightly backwards on that potential but the devil in the details will still alter. A record has never been set in stone and its still less than a 50% chance imo but the potential has not gone. Subtle differences will make a huge difference down the line.

And bear in mind that plus 24C upper is happening at night, could easily get to plus 26C during daylight hours. What today's runs do show, how a slight variation can make a difference in terms of the strength of the heat even though the theme is still turning seriously hot by next weekend. Even if the national record does not go, many local records could.

As I say, bit more Atlantic air heads into France so it tempers the heat somewhat, at least initially. UKMO keeps the heat over France so the hot air arrives earlier as per other model runs. It shows how slight differences can have an impact even if albeit the broad pattern is still the same(dry and getting hotter at the weekend).

Little bit more Atlantic air heading into France so that tempers the heat somewhat but I still expect the hot pool making it into the UK on this run, we see if it will predict 40C or not. UKMO slightly different and does not introduce much Atlantic air into France so the heat arrives earlier.

Yep that is how I see it, I think the major heatwave across northern France is more or less nailed on, just how much heat does the UK get and you got to say, either Saturday or Sunday or both, southern areas will see temperatures in the thirties. The ECM has moved closer to the GFS and this mornings UKMO run may suggest some heat also. I still say temperatures of 40C is a low chance(mostly because of the apparent GFS bias) but its not an impossibility but because its such a slack set up, any minor shifts could have a massive effect.

The GFS run from this morning is still not too far off from what we seen previously, just a variation and shows what a minor difference in the pattern can do to the temperatures. The details will still change between now and next weekend, the uncertainty still remains how far north and west the heat dome gets.

I think that's the thing people don't get with this, the GFS is showing what could happen if the ingredients come together perfectly and its showing this extreme because Spain/France has seen very high temperatures all ready, the ground is bone dry, SSTS in the med are way above average and the heat is forecast to really build in Spain during the course of this week. Of course what happens with the Iberian low and the Atlantic is going to have a massive say in just how much heat reaches the UK and how far North and West it goes, slight differences will have a massive affect. Maybe the GFS is too extreme but a hot air mass heading to the UK is a possibility as the ECM shows. As usual in these plume situations, they don't tend to stick around for too long. So too early to be worrying/getting excited about the record breaking heat but the potential is there for sure.

Goes to show how slight differences can make a massive difference in temperatures. For me, it shows the plume potential but it also shows how its probably not too far off from not really occurring at all.

Still got to bear in mind, those temperatures are still well in the medium to longer range but the possibility is there and has been for quite a while now. Its by no means a certainty we will get temperatures that high but a plume event of some sorts looks likely. Just how much of the UK gets affected and how far north and west the hot air gets remains a huge uncertainty.

Another brief downdraft which turned light rain to almost full on snow, its just ashame the front looks so weak and is due to clear. Hopefully the showers can be part of a trough and have some organisation to them. Be interesting too see how it develops.

That sleet report, it was literally 30 seconds of sleet from a moderate pulse, turned back to light rain and the sun is even trying to break through. I do suspect if the front pivots and intensifies somewhere in the UK could get an snow event. Its just really going to be pot luck.

Suspect evaporation is coming into play here. The cold air is definately digging in though, dew temps are dropping across the region but in turn, this could be making the air too dry? Edit: started to rain which is showing signs of turning to sleet so the colder air is making its presence felt.

Still think there is a brief window of opportunity for some snow showers across the region tonight. Probably between 9 and 3 before the cold air gets mixed out but if the GFS is right then uppers of - 8 should be cold enough for snow almost anywhere. Thursday looks interesting, you ideally don't want the low to get close otherwise the cold air gets mixed out even quicker but an opportunity is there though.

Another "it's wasn't stormy over my house so it was overhyped" post. The warnings are over a general area so just because it did not get to your expectations did not mean in other areas it didn't. I think an Amber warning was justified for here, very strong gusts between 1 and 5 and weather stations across the coast were recording upto 70mph. London got a red warning because of population and the fact its more unusual to get such strong gusts down there. Anyways back today and its Lancashires favorite weather, rain. Very depressing area to live in winter, I be surprised if we get any proper falling snow here, the SW'lies before any PPN has meant temps and dew temps are too high and the upper air temperatures are not cold enough to being the freezing level down. I always say uppers of at least - 6 guarantees snow in these situations and they are around -4. Tomorrow evening could be interesting, briefly uppers could get down to -8 which should support falling snow until the air all gets mixed out with that deep low.

What has Hurricanes got to do with this!? Totally different to a very deep low which we have at the moment, as we seen on the news and social media, it is dangerous out there with trees toppling over, structural damage and so on. Hurricanes are much much worse but we don't get them in this country so we can only compare this with deep depressions of the past and for the South perhaps this the worse storm for many years.

I thought the highest gust during that storm was 97mph at/near Boulmer? If there was any 120mph gusts, its bound to be right on top of the pennines rather than any low lying areas. That said as you said, the impacts were quite severe and no doubt more red warnings should be out than there is just like in this case. The south coast looks particularly like it be will be hard hit during the morning then in the afternoon NW England, North Wales alobg with East Anglia seeing the strongest gusts. I would argue these areas should have red warnings also but we shall see how it develops.

Wish I was in Northern Ireland, seemed the best place to get significant snow at lower levels, going to be interesting how all this develops. I think there is an exaggeration on roofs being blown off, you be extremely unlucky if it happens to yourself just like lightning hitting a house and setting fire to it but we don't usually get the negative comments regarding thunderstorms in that aspect.

Maybe but initially the isobar were looking tightly packed but as you say, just a normal deep low as far I'm concerned. Sunday into Monday low does look stronger mind, would not be surprised if this gets named also.

It all depends on the shape of the low aswell as of course positioning who gets the strongest winds and how strong. Plus dont discount the snow risk either especially with blizzards possible, southern Scotland looks most at risk it seems from snowfall.

Despite 2 storms forecast, looks like largely our region will miss out on the worst of the winds, as others said, let's hope for the southern corrections to at least perhaps increase the risk of some snowfall although the air is not that cold really and winds will soon turn NW'ly so it won't last all that long in anycase.

I think some are forgetting the 'lee' of high ground affect here, the angle of the low look favourable too me for potentially damaging gusts to the east of high ground. I don't think we will see the 80-90mph gusts but 60 upto 70mph is possible for a short time.

Interesting thoughts about high pressure in here because in this neck of the woods, it has not felt like a high pressure winter, plenty of wet days or days with rain falling, totally get further south has been drier mind. There's only been 2 spells of high pressure dominating the UK weather and they did not last that long either.

Of course despite climate change, the cold air has not disappeared so its more of the question of has climate change caused the jet stream to become stronger which limits blocking patterns which we mostly need to get colder weather on our shores. Everytime I see hints of ridges to Greenland, they get flattened by shortwaves, quite predictable really. I do think climate change has had an impact of polar maritime air from the west north west which are probably a degree or two warmer than if a similar set up occurred 30 40 years ago. I also think climate change has an impact of strengthening any high pressure systems to the south as warmer air can lead to increase thicknesses therefore producing a stronger blocking high. This could mean record breaking temperatures during February especially if it sets up right like it did a couple of years back I recall. Still would not rule out a significant cold spell before winter is officially finished but no signs whatsoever, not whilst the PV is over Greenland and Baffin Bay.