Geordiesnow

It's quite clear any cold will be very transient and it's looking more likely we are heading towards a flatter pattern. Even the cold air is not sticking around Scotland on the model runs this afternoon. The post Xmas chilly shot is still there on the ECM but lack of heights mean it will only be tempory.

I dont get all this talk of uncertainty in all honesty, been clear there is going to be a Battleground set up somewhere over the UK just before Xmas day but it all depends how much those lows slide determines how far south the cold air get. From all the runs I have seen, the Battleground is likely to occur across Central parts of Scotland but some runs had it further south into the central belt and the borders and others have it northwards that even mainland Scotland is in the milder air. There has been no indication there be any battleground snow over England and Wales and the milder air should win out here. Chance of it turning colder more widely on boxing day if we develop a NW'ly but the details are far from nailed though.

I thought previous UKMO runs had something similar showing or at least had some colder air in northern areas? I personally think the milder scenario is the most favoured as meteologically speaking its probably simplier to get a more rounded low than a squashed one like the GFS is showing plus you need the details to be inch perfect to get enough cold air further south than Scotland.

Probably because for the South, its going to be an struggle to get cold air heading that way whilst we got that monster block over Spain/Portugal and France, the thicknesses on that high are so impressive for December, no idea if temperatures will be record breaking or not but they do look notetably high(Africa has been well above average recently so that could be a factor). Looks more like February charts at the moment where you see the first signs of warmth returning on the charts rather than December! Definate potential for snowfall somewhere in the northern half of the UK, central belt looks most favoured but those lows have to be 'squashed' down for it to come off, if they are bowling ball type shape like the ECM then even Scotland won't tap into the cold.

I had no idea why the Met Office in particular was hyping up the snow potential for Sunday, the air never looked cold enough to start off with to get the classic frontal snow and the front is arriving at more or less the same time as the positive uppers arrive. The GFS model seems to have kept the most realistic scenario in this respect.

One thing I am noticing now is the increased wind chill, something which was lacking in this cold spell due to it being a largely slack set up. It is dissapointing the lack of a snowy breakdown though but that can happen sadly.

I never talked about temperatures apart from 850hpa temperatures? Of course under clear skies in a slack set up with cold aloft it was going to be quite cold at night especially. Either way, apart from higher ground I don't see much in the way of snowfall in the coming days and Sundays front will turn watery even on high ground very quickly.

Yep and snowfall was extremely limited for our region, certainly did not see much in the way of reports of any significant snowfall except maybe higher ground? Need at least - 8 uppers if the wind is off the sea for most areas, any higher and its the wrong side of marginal.

Finally more realistic charts, snow briefly on higher ground, rain for everyone else. Although I am sad about the cold spell ending after tonight's freeze, it will be interesting to feel the mild weather again, just not looking forward to the wet weather again, its been almost a month since we had Atlantic weather but it had to end sometime. As for the cold leading up to Xmas, don't fully buy into it, may get a polar maritime airmass but not convinced it will be cold enough for snow, not in our region except for higher ground.

One thing to note for tonight is how low the dew temps are in the region so potentially for some the coldest night of the season so far, all depend on the wind though. We are under - 8 uppers at the moment and it's showing. Because the air is drier though, there might not be as much of a white/hoar frost around. As for Sunday, I think those ECM charts are overdoing the snow potential personally, I be shocked if low ground see any snow at all. Probs be one of those infamous days where the radar says something should be falling from the sky but the reality is different.

Slightly surprising too see alot of frost melt today, kind of a good thing to remove the ice risk but a less wintry looking scene today. Tonight should hopefully see a sharp frost with tomorrow having crystal blue skies and low angled sun with a white frost for most of the day. I just can't see the uppers in the coming days being cold enough for snow in the coming days either sadly, if we were struggling to get snow at - 6hpaa with little wind, how are we going to get it with - 4 uppers, I mean you never know maybe dew temps will be slightly lower but I am skeptical about any snow chances especially on low ground.

Issue with this type of set up is that its localised events and it needs to develop correctly to get the best results. They can produce alot of snow though because its such slow moving. The classic charts are the ones where true bitter cold air comes in, we are really struggling to get the - 8hpa across the UK during this spell for example.

I perhaps might agree in terms of snow but in fairness some runs were better than what we ended up with. Potential was there and whilst some comments saying we could be on the cusp of 2010 was OTT, the potential was there for the uppers to be colder than what they were.

I think that's disrespectful to the many posters on there who are knowledgeable and even said this is not like 2010. Sure some may be hyperbole but the vast majority are not imo.

Problem has been the struggle to get the real cold air southwards and for the northerly initially to be more of a NNE'ly. Been some cold nights though and some places has seen ice days. Still a chance in the NE for a fresh top up of snow, only takes one potent heavy shower to make a difference.

In these slack set ups, it's all about luck really, if you do get a heavy shower, it could stick round for a good while and give a decent covering yet 10 miles down the road there's nothing. It does look like there will be a brief window where some heavy snow showers will hit Eastern areas, does look brief but better than nothing!

I know some may welcome the mild but the trends in the charts are depressing like, I am enjoying the dry spell and whilst I would like too see more snow, its very hard in this area. Hopefully some more frosty nights to come. Got to say I think the North West could be the only area where there is very little chance of snow next week although I'm only taking the charts at face value so I might be wrong hopefully.

Good too see some reports of snow, clearly for some the upper air has not been cold enough. If we get a slack set up with uppers of - 8 later on in the season then we should get excited, will certainly be cold enough then. Grey overcast day with spits of rain at times here, give me back the clear sunny days and hard frosts!

Definately could describe it like that after cycling back from Lancaster to Morecambe, some flakes mixed in and the ice pellets(?)/snizzle did leave white surfaces on the ground. Was interesting to observe albeit at the back end of the shower how it was gradually getting more and more sleety and eventually rain as entering Morecambe, still evidence of a white ground but it was getting more patchy nearer to home. If only those uppers were a touch colder...

Not a good report really, how much lower does it need to be for snow to fall nevermind trying to settle?

Not sure I agree in all honesty, looks fairly accurate as a guide on what type of radar we should expect. We shall see if northern areas of the region gets more in the way of showers during this evening and overnight.

I doubt at this time of year there be much solar heating from the sun! Happy to avoid those showers at the moment, do feel if they do arrive here we will get similar to what has been reported so far. The air is just a little too warm unfortunately.

Have they? Maybe they have but low to mid single digits have been predicted across the UK and that is what we have been seeing? Saturdays forecast is interesting because if there is PPN then its likely to turn to snow up here first as its South Cumbria and North Lancs which gets the flow off the sea cut off very early on Saturday so if there is PPN around it might turn to snow due to no winds and evaporative cooling. If the uppers were - 8, I would be getting my hopes up but - 5 and - 6 then I'm not so sure. Been more rain reports than snow reports on the east coast today with similar uppers and winds off shore.

Yep it just looks to warm for any snow in our region apart from higher ground, its why it was dissapointing too see the northerly started to get more moderated with each run but yet still got hyped up by certain members. Thicknesses in this northerly are also poor really, its really not your classic convective northerly. The main features of this cold spell will be the hard frosts and lack of wind chill and a lack of snow to an extent also.

A little unlucky really on timings, if this happened 12 hours later after a very cold start to the night, could of been a light covering instead of wet ground! Always think anything below - 8hpa wise is when it's guarantees to be of snow especially when winds are off shore. Its ashame we got all thdes great set ups yet no real significant cold to show for it.