Geordiesnow

What a difference a month makes since the above post. Sea ice is looking TERRIBLE, it's September and we have blue/grey ugly looking ice, the Arctic is running very warm, the PV struggling to form and it's looking stormy with plenty of rain(maybe a bit of sleet perhaps) in the forecast for the basin. With winds coming in from the open water, expect more ice loss and an extent of under 4 million looking very likely. Absolutely depressing looking at the ice on worldview on the Atlantic side, it should be white with snow falling, not grey/blue with lots of rain falling.

I'm sure I read on the Met office deep dive, Alex Deakin mentioned Thursday would be alot of high and medium level based cloud, certainly did not promise blue skies that is for sure. I think the GFS model also forecasted cloud cover also. Maybe the cloud cover was thicker than expected but it wasn't totally unexpected from what I could see from the models.

Except without climate change, we shouldn't be seeing anywhere near these extraordinary 850 temperatures at this time of year, August is usually the warmest month in the northern hemisphere but we are seeing it more and more of warm air lingering longer at all latitudes and the polar vortex struggling to form during September. Depressing looking back at charts from the 1960s and seeing the marked difference between then and now. There is no way this set up would deliver those type of 850 temperatures back then. It's only for the fact perhaps temperatures at the surface may not be as high as the charts suggest means this event is not as noteworthy as it should be. Either way, whilst a southerly will occur, there is uncertainty how hot it will get, how much cloudcover there will be(seems certain Monday and Tuesday should be the sunniest days of the week) and of course the storm risk which looks like could be a factor from Wednesday onwards.

Right on the edge of the storm cloud from all the fun to the south of us. You can see the easterly flow preventing the storms moving to far north and westwards despite you can see them trying to head that way. Small thundery shower aside on which I could not see any lightning as I have a poor view towards the west and a bit of rain on Saturday evening, not alot to report really. I can see already the grass responding to that rainfall.

I think the ever so slightly drier air from the NE is coming into play, looking NE and on the sat images, it's pretty much wall to wall blue skies. Seen some convective cloud but there is nothing to sustained so the conditions are not right up here, will have to rely on elsewhere and that looks unlikely.

I feel a bit the opposite to you Damianslaw, I was keen to avoid the rainband(as it was getting increasingly less convective) to keep the dry spell going. I've only got a few plants and grass/hedges in the garden so I'm more than happy to have growth being quite slow. Had some rain this evening so no doubt things will start to grow during next week with the sunny weather forecast! We should never ever worry about lengthy dry spells in this country and especially this region because winter will almost certainly make up for it.

Would actually seem going by the convective thread, apart from some rumbles of thunder and some cloudscapes, no one seems to be under those intense cells? I wonder if in some cases the rain is evaporating which would be a surprise given the humidity?

Really think Blackpool southwards in particular could see some lively downpours this afternoon with Merseyside looking the most favoured spot. I agree with your assesment tomorrow and Monday sea breezes could be a spoiler for coastal parts but I expect the Pennines could do well. Maybe the easterly drift will be stronger on Monday but in general I think most places in the region will see some rain/storms in the next 3 days.

Be shocked if most places dont catch at least a bit of rain between now and Monday, you be desperately unlucky(or lucky) if you miss out on the rain/storms. Hopefully the storms can stay away until more evening time at least, I think it's going to be quite breezy today so even if they do arrive they may not last all that long.

I still harp on about the summers between 2007-12 which we all thought could be the trend because of the warming climate(warmer summers at high latitudes creating blocking therefore a more southerly jet stream for the UK) and now because we get some drier summers at times we still moan and worry this could be the norm. The dryness does not concern me, we won't be like California that is for sure and Autumn and more so winter always usually gives us our fair share of rainfall. I think maybe one saving grace so far during this dry spell is because it has not been overly warm, there has been less drying out than it would be if this spell came in July with much hotter temperatures. Obviously the top layers like grass will always be suspectable to prolonged dry weather but further under the soil it's probably still damp despite the dry spell.

Again any retrogression signal in the medium term has been dropped again, the models do try in the longer term but that is too far out. Orientation of the high is going to be hard to pin down and there is a threat of slightly less thicknesses and heights coming in from the continent during next week so that is one to watch but that is a low threat. It will be interesting how stormy it will be this weekend, always did look like Sunday will be the more widespread day for storms but as per ever, it's radar watching and see what happens. Temperatures will be interesting to monitor, it could come down to also how quickly any low cloud clears on Saturday.

Both models are again hinting at a pressure rise over Greenland so it's not unrealistic to think the UKMO may of head the same way if it carries on. However as we have seen, that is a long way off and the models have waxed and waned about potential height rises to Greenland. It does look like pressure will rise again somewhat as we go into next week, it's the details of it that will be difficult to pin down. Even this weekend is hard to know what is going to happen, suspect Sunday will be the more showery day of the two with perhaps a line of thunderstorms up the Pennine chain thanks to the wind convergence which Crewecold has posted.

And to think during 2007-2012 those summers were going to be more of the norm due to increased northern blocking therefore our summers would be largely cool and wet. now it's climate change making our summers more blocked! Apart from the SE, has there been anything exceptional during our summers in terms of a lack of rainfall. Certainly not around here and whilst last summer was out of the ordinary in terms of dryness, it's certainly not unheard of and we soon recover come Autumn and winter time. It's the temperatures I'm more concerned about, ironically the rainfall across Europe may mean the risk of 40C this year would be quite low but it's no doubt it will occur again with climate change.

I think the most impressive thing for me is that if you include the last few days, we could see 7 days where a 1030ish millibar high pressure cell barely moves from its original position just to the NW of Scotland which is probably unheard of given its location. We have seen in those dreadful summers between 2007 and 2012 of low pressure systems parking itself over the UK for days on end but not a high pressure cell in that location and for such a lengthy duration. And whilst you see tentative signs the high may move towards Greenland, the models soon back off it and keep it near the UK. Hopefully on a warm and dry point of view, it will eventually back eastwards and not retrogress towards Greenland.

I have to admit I am too slightly dubious of the climate reanalyzer average temperatures since the upgrade, always seem to show a higher figure despite at times seemingly there's been a fair amount of below average temperatures around the basin. All that said there is no disputing places like the Kara Sea and Hudson Bay have been really warm so far and the affects on the ice in these areas has been noteworthy. The only good news for the Kara is the wind direction does favour compaction so we may sees an more resilient area of ice hanging on near the islands like we saw in 2021. Overall though, the weather so far has been uneventful and even quite chilly for the time of year in certain spots. Do hope the low pressure systems weaken somewhat though otherwise we may see quite alot of dispersion developing again like we saw last year.

Sadly looks like to me tomorrow has gone from a potential sunshine and shower set up towards a more organised area of PPN which is non convective and because the NW'ly flow is no longer straight lined(look at all the kinks in the isobars!) The -8hpa fails to reach us which would make snow precip alot more likely. Usually kinks in the isobars can be a good thing but at this time of year and the flow not being the strongest, it could prove to be a negative for snowfall which would sums things up for the north west. Roll on summer!

Makes alot more sense, those hills are looking very white indeed!

Really? There was absolutely nothing of note here(not even on the grass) and even in Lancaster there was barely anything although snow patches were more notable and it did look more white towards Williamsons park which is no surprise. Didn't think near Heysham(which I think you said your near) was all that much higher up but I remembered an event last year where there was heavy snow but very little accumulated in Morecambe and Lancaster but Heysham had a covering of sorts. Shows how a bit of height makes all the difference.

Offshore wind though, should be no excuses really. Maybe the PPN as stopped, who knows. Either way some great photos this morning from around the region, shows winter is not over even in March.

Same here, despite all the snow falling, the evidence of it is very minimal. I may aswell pack it in because if that can't deliver some sort of covering I don't know what can around here. Would not be surprised though if there is more evidence of snow on the ground in Lancaster, even in Morecambe during past snow events, there is a noticeable difference in lying snow cover, I am literally in the worse spot for wanting lying snow.

I'm not too sure, we are kinda seeing a pattern developing on the radar with less PPN to the west of the hills and now this is where Yorkshire should get there fair share at all levels you would of thought. Saying that it's been an unpredictable radar but with colder air filtering in, it could mean more drying out of the PPN but who knows as it's so unpredictable although despite that in our region, the Met has been spot on about little to no accumulations at lower levels.

Little update here, the snow has definitely turned drier here as it's sticking on cars and threatening to stick on the paths aswell so maybe the colder air is making its presence felt. The radar is showing signs of what the Met and the models were predicting though for the region, PPN is looking light on this side of the Pennines apart from Cumbria and for now north Lancs.

Dew temps are in the negatives and your in the colder air(don't think Newcastle ever left the cold air) so the PPN is likely to be alot drier. Plus ground temps are probably colder up there from earlier in the week.

I think people need to realise the real cold air is not going to filter in until after midnight, the winds should ease off also to an extent which should help with evaporative cooling. Just the same old question, how much precipitation will there be and how heavy will it be.

Been snowing quite heavily for a good while now, only really settling on car windscreens though as it's wet in nature. Wild out there with the wind.