Geordiesnow

Or as per usual, don't take such charts at that range too literally. From what I have seen, the only blocking high that is in the output was the scandi high which will develop but very few if any runs has that high affecting our weather in anyway that is positive for a cold point of view. We are seeing more tentative signs we may at last see some ridging in the Atlantic but not overly convincing and perhaps too close to the UK but at least it may mean a somewhat drier outlook. Nothing to do with the Azores/Iberian high, of course that will be an almost semi permanent feature because of the lack of jet stream and obviously air is warmer the further south you are but this myth it's more dominant than it used to be is a load of hot air, if it was more dominant then our winters would be drier and not wetter. The reason why cold is probably harder to get is down to increased shortwave activity which especially when it comes to Atlantic ridges stops the blocking from developing quickly collapses the whole set up before the colder air can actually established over us. It's why I'm not carried away with the outlook, would not surprise me in the slightest if the Atlantic ridge barely develops at all but we shall see.

Yep, nothing unusual with having cold there, the lack of deep cold right at this moment in time at 850 heights sums up the modern times unfortunately. There does seem to be trend to develop a scandi high of some sort but unless it's far enough westwards and some sort of ridging develops in the Atlantic I just can't see it bringing much benefits and we perhaps risk again of persistent rainfall in NE Scotland.

Looks like a rain shadow affect too me with the SE'ly breeze. Of course if it was mild, there be no rainfall shadow!

Absolutely incredible day meteologically speaking but for all the wrong reasons here! In the 4 hours from 9:30 till afternoon of blue skies with some cloud(and due to the low angle of the sun we even had sunshine at times) to grey skies and snow clearly falling on the other side of the bay. Clearly this trough or whatever it was moved southwards here and give a covering of snizzle which has partially thawed so leaving absolutely lethal conditions. This is sort of set up I have thought would be my best chance of snowfall of an easterly wind bringing cold air in then it gets messy but the upper winds come from the Irish sea which could promote beefy showers and boy it did over Cumbria. Not too sure if the streamer was 20 miles further southwards it would produce such results here, I got a feeling the mountains may of played some sort of ongraphic rainfall here. Either way totally caught out the forecasters.

Was mostly graupel now it's heavy sleet, oh well our chance was this morning and it didn't happen so on to the next one.

In these type of set ups some hit the jackpot and some don't. Since this morning though Ive seen the same skyline of snowclouds to the northwest and blue skies to the south and east for the past 3 to 4 hours although the snowclouds do look like they are fading somewhat now.

And plenty more to come! Meanwhile dry as a bone here, sunshine out at times and looking at the radar it looking like it could stay that way, looking more promising for Merseyside now though.

Always going to be room for error but you can sort of see why the warnings are where there are. It's a complex situation and it really is down to radar and temperature watching. I think another thing the midlands have got is the surface cold from the freezing fog albeit even most of the North west is still around freezing.

Can sort of see it on the GFS model aswell. However you never know, I think the main issue is it might be on the wrong side of marginal for those near the coast and at lower levels. Hopefully there be some surprises though, certainly was not expecting south Cumbria to get battered like they have done so today.

I got to say I think looking at the radar and seeing that PPN in Wales, it does look like it has that ENE'ly trajectory which means the Met office warning area could well be spot on sadly. The stuff in Cumbria will most likely fizzle out as time goes on. Even if it reaches here, I'm anticipating rain from it, frost has melted, does not feel cold enough for snow and we are at the warmest part of the day. So close yet so far.

Looks like on paper this is turning out to be a cracking event for south Cumbria, I assume all that mass is falling as snow and plenty more to come. Meanwhile I can look on in envy on this side of the bay...

I think in terms of best chance for snowfall, it has to be tonight and into the morning, we got the surface cold, the 850hpa will be marginally colder overnight than it is tomorrow night and if these showers are around during daylight hours tomorrow, with increased cloud cover, its going to be difficult to drop the temperatures to get on the right side of marginal. This is especially the case for the usual snow starved coastal parts of the region. Maybe more inland parts like Manchester might be okay and of course higher ground even at modest heights should be ok the right side of marginal aslong as the precipitation is there! Good chance Egremont might actually get some snowfall by the morning which is no more than Cumbria Marra deserves.

Have noticed in more recent runs of more colder air coming into play, instead of 850s sticking around -4, we are seeing more in the way of -6 even upto -8hpa which is definately cold enough for snowfall. I think our best bet is from the NE and hope there is kink/trough development like the ECM is hinting at. Regardless though a cold week coming up.

I do think some are getting the colours confused and thinking a chart is colder than it actually is, if there is no fronts embedded then that chart says chilly with a speckling of rain showers along exposed eastern coasts. 850 need to be more in the -6 to -8 range to be more certain of snowfall.

Charts are starting to remind me of December last year where whilst the 850hpa temperatures are nothing to write home about however because it's quite slack, we could see some quite sharp frosts at night aswell for some. Snowfall looks extremely limited to me going by the outputs so if your after that then I wouldn't build your hopes up really.

Judging by the runs I have seen, it does seem a reluctance of tapping into the coldest of the upper air temperatures and 850hpa temperatures of -8 or below is what I class as cold enough for snowfall. The ECM run does not look too bad too me though, very hard to pin down details really at this stage. Shall be interesting how things develop from here I suppose, some more increased snowcover across eastern Europe will be good though, may promote a colder block which could help down the line one day.

I think the winds could be a real issue here tomorrow, from my experience everytime we get a strong NE'ly it can be quite lively and tomorrow could well turn out to be like that. All depends on the exact positioning of the low and the tightness of the isobars but those 'lee' winds could cause issues on the M6 for example.

And that is the issue, it's the persistence of the rain, won't be heavy all the time in one area but it should be persistent across NE Scotland. Looks like the rain further south could be more potant but track and intensity is uncertain. Plus the 12Z runs have the centre of the low further west so a right squeeze on the isobars for more parts of the UK, could be some lively gusts west of the Pennines.

Yep was the same further northwards, heavy snow showers during the day but the nighttime bought more prolonged rain/sleet with a gradual thawing of the snow, it really was marginal stuff that the whole of lowland eastern areas were on the wrong side of marginal unfortunately.

You just need to look at the 850hpa temperatures on wetterzentrale and it's like we are a month behind constantly since Autumn began and no wonder when you see how warm the SSTS are and how warm it has been this year. I mean we are in October and we not even reaching the -15hpa yet. It's a sign of things to come I'm afraid though, it's only going to get worse sadly.

With the minimum looking like it's been reached now(settled at 4.13 million square miles on JAXA figures which is 5th lowest on record), I think it's time for the refreeze thread now. I can only hope once the winter months arrive we get plenty of cold Arctic highs which I believe is the favourable weather pattern for sea ice thickening. Anything but Arctic highs in the upcoming forecast though with the basin set to be dominate by a massive low pressure system and with winds largely coming in from the open water, needless to say Arctic temperatures are going to be way above average even over the ice itself(which has been the case all through this month). It's been a dreadful start to the refreeze season it's fair to say, I thought 2020 was warm but I wouldn't be surprised if this year matches that or even exceeds it. There is alot of heat in the Northern hemisphere and the PV is really struggling to form at all levels. Still don't think refreeze will be as slow as 2020 was as the Arctic SSTS are not too extreme and ice melt in parts was late but the weather is doing its best to slow things down.

Obviously my knowledge on the Antarctic is quite limited but whilst the numbers look concerning, I be a bit wary to say it's down to climate change and we are past a tipping point especially as we were at record highs just less than 10 years ago. Unlike the Arctic, Antarctic ice is influenced by oceans, local weather patterns and does not tend to have multi year ice so it could easily bounce back I feel.

I just keep looking at the output charts GW and can't help but be baffled, concerned and quite saddened at what we are seeing here. We are just not cooling down at all, the models want to cool down but the reality is, we are not and it's all very very slow. I just can't see where any initial refreeze is coming from, even temperatures above the icepack are so poor for the time of year. Whilst SSTS over the Arctic are nothing too exceptional(apart from the Kara) we all know about the Atlantic SSTS and is that now playing a role at just how above average we are globally. It's interesting but concerning. Btw the cold lovers on here probably can kiss goodbye to a cold winter if this continues, if we can't get the PV forming over the poles properly then everything will be diluted even come wintertime.

I think the fact on the bremen ice chart we got low concentration at high latitudes just tells you, it is NOT cold up there at all and if anything, the situation does not look like improving at all. Looking at worldview, tells it's own story really, lots of cloud, the ice is hardly white(compared to the last couple of years) and well this could be a game changer because whilst extent is not the lowest I don't think I've seen the ice at this stage in September looking as poor as this. 2020 was slow but the main reason why extent was so low then was because of the lack of Atlantic ice. I actually thought refreeze could be fairly quick this year across the Siberian arctic but the fact the PV is so weak(850 temperatures are just not dropping anywhere near enough), I'm not so sure now.

I don't think it will be the latest minimum on record( the latest was in 1995 on the 30th September) but maybe like Grey Wolf says, don't expect any rapid rises early on if these temperatures are refusing to drop or we constantly get winds compacting the ice pack. As it happens, if the weather does end up playing ball, refreeze could be fast on the Siberian side as SSTS are nothing too remarkable(compared to 2020 for example) but as we see more and more during early to mid September, the PV is struggling to develop so the cold is struggling to form hence we are still seeing area losses which is now officially at least 3rd lowest minimum on record which is remarkable really. It does look like things are going to become more slacker and the cold trying to develop but only really on the Atlantic side and over the CAB, still looking way above average on the Pacific side.