Geordiesnow

I'm talking small details but it is incredible on every GFS run for the past day, the coldest air(the -8hpa) is struggling to make inroads southwards because the low in the Azores is having more and more of an influence. The -8hpa is around a good 100 to 200 miles further north compared to what the model was showing this time yesterday. Very little difference on a global scale but in terms of Thursdays event, the weaker the colder air, the less likely the pivot will occur in our region.

Would not fully rule out the odd surprise overnight btw, if that front waves and the cold air has undercut, we could see localised reports of snow in the region. Its more likely southern UK this may happen but who knows. Meanwhile tomorrow could see showers developing, I'm expecting a radar similar to what we seen in southern Scotland this afternoon of showers popping up, quite small in nature but somewhere could get a beefy one and the air should be cold enough for them to fall as snow. Be interesting to see the overnight minimum temps also come Wednesday morning, at least we may wake up to some white scenes then!

Or correct it selves further northwards, the initial cold plunge is not getting as far south and west on each GFS run I notice so maybe that's another factor why the cold is not hanging on no matter how hard it tries. Still a bit of time for the details to change though of course.

It does seem the further north you are, the more chance there is for potentially a significant snow event but its one of those situations where the milder air comes in too quickly and it's a mostly rain event. I think the likelihood of it being a snow to rain event looks quite high too me. Small chance this region is the point where the low slides and the cold air wins out.

Because the cut off low which could bring the frontal snow coming in for the south is seem to be arriving earlier, the northerly flow gets cut off quicker so we don't even get the NW'ly flow therefore any snow showers are now gone from today's output. Possible chance of a small band of snow heading southwards and if that clears quickly enough then we may see showers developing via convection, not sure the sun is strong enough for strong convection but anything that falls out of the sky should be of snow. After that then it's all eyes on how far north that front gets. I've lived down here for 8 years now and have not seen one frontal snow event and I don't see this being any different.

More and more runs I'm looking at the less likely I'm convinced anything meaningful will be happening, the trend and reluctance to push the real deep cold(-8hpa) southwards is occurring more and more with each run. The GFS does go too cold at times in the longer range only to water down more in the shorter term. Also a good chance we won't get much of a northerly in the first place and we end up in modest cool air. I actually don't think I've known a winter where true cold air has bee reluctant to hit the UK. The only reason December was cold was because of the lack of winds because upper air temperatures wise, they were unremarkable for the time of year. Either way, it's the snowless North West so i doubt we will see much anyways but we are getting to that time of year where cold air over land can develop inland convection under the right conditions.

That's a fair analysis on what can happen but as always, subtle shifts in the short term can alter the longer term pattern. There is no doubts we may see a blocking pattern but whether it affects the UK weather or not is from clear. For me it seems an almighty battle against the huge PV over Greenland, its one of those where the blocking is trying but most runs so far does not have the blocking affecting us in a positive way for cold. A cold Easterly does seem to be less likely scenario so far.

One of those where the ensembles show slight tweeks in the short term could have big changes longer term but apart from the odd GFS FI run, it looks a longshore and the most likely outcome is the flatter pattern sadly.

I got to say I am finding the current charts when viewing them on wetterzentrale just quite extraordinary. The thicknesses on those highs for January is quite something and it's probably something we see more in Spring, thankfully to an extent its not truely representing the temperatures but they will do in a months time as the sun gains strength again. I will not be at all surprised if we see more warm records get broken and we see a very early retreat of the snowcover again.

Apart from the almighty snow shower a few miles to my north, little things like that makes all the difference!

Slightly colder air coming in tonight so snow risk does increase again, how much precipation will there be is the usual question. I suspect its going to be very hit and miss but some lucky areas could see a few CMs. Surprised to read comments that people are surprised at a slow thaw. Ground temperatures are obviously lower than air temperatures so a light covering which gets compacted and say freezes overnight(or if the ground is already frozen)can be quite resistant to melt in shaded areas.

So because it has not snowed as much as you would like over Cheshire, then the convection has not been decent whereas in other parts of the region, it seems like its been a decent event. All down to luck at the end of the day, do sort of like the unpredictability side to things but my main rule of thumb with convection in the Irish Sea is that the further North you are, your going too see less convection but southern parts of the region has a real chance too see the large clumps of showers but only at sporadic moments. Also I do find it interesting how the showers can intensify at times as they head over land.

Air slightly colder again by then also but wind flow slacker so how far any showers get is more uncertain. I would love too see how much convection we would see with -10 hPa and very low thicknesses, one of the reasons for the patchy nature of convection is because the air is just not cold enough to create enough instability because of the shorter sea track?

I wonder if that stuff over Northern Ireland is a trough as it looks too organised to be just showers. Meanwhile for the NW, it's back to those pesky popcorn showers.

Ground temperatures will be much lower hence the slower than expected thaw. It is notable here there is no white(snow/snizzle) where the frost has melted from the sun this morning which told me if we did not get the low overnight temperatures, it may not of settled despite the intensity.

Just had a 20 min heavy shower of a mix of graupel/hail/snow which settled on the cold surfaces, at least it makes it look wintry but just reminds me how I wish we could do better in these convective set ups and just wish the air was that bit colder.

Yeah in fairness I think places around Fleetwood southwards tend to do better as the sea track is longer and the Isle of man is less in the way but we don't get a polar maritime airmass that is cold enough for snowfall most of the time. From my short experience unless uppers are around - 8 it's hard too see snow settling at lower levels especially near the coast even further inland can sometimes struggle. Uppers of - 6 is usually just not cold enough unless the wind is offshore. As for tonight, in general uppers going by the GFS are not forecast to fall by much, its not until tomorrow daytime we see the coldest of the air but we know full well there is unlikely to be much precipitation by then.

Definately would of been back in the 70s and 80s, -10 hpa would hit Scotland and even if a less cold sector does develop, it would still be cold enough for the large part. Nowadays the bulk of the coldest air is only at - 8 and because its slightly less cold, its less stubborn so the cold gets mixed out even quicker. Warm SSTS are no doubt playing a role but we all know this is what the future will be like. I've moved down here in 2015 and not one convective set up has produced lying snow here in winter. All that said aswell mind, the Irish Sea has never produced much convection anyways, usually just the infamous popcorn showers. North Sea meanwhile is a totally different kettle of fish, can't fail with that aslong as the air is cold enough.

I enjoyed the December cold spell, it was dry very frosty so felt like winter as a result but at the end of the day it's snowfall is what we are mostly after and again a cold set up is unlikely to deliver too much in the way of snowfall by the looks of it. Still shall enjoy the sunny days as sunshine has been hard to come by since the December cold spell

Does sadly have a deja vu feeling about this set up is too slack, uppers fairly unremarkable, thicknesses a bit lower but lack of precipation is a real issue. Looks like Monday and perhaps Wednesday will be where the risk of Precipatation will increase bur both times have uppers of around -5 which imo away from modest elevations is usually not cold enough for snow(and definitely not cold enough for settling snow). Can't help but feel as in December, climate change is playing a role in the modest temperatures at 850 level.

Could be some severe frosts again though especially if the set up is slack although I suspect it be more Eastern areas that will see the severe frosts going by the output. It is frustrating we seem to struggle to get the -8hpa heading further south than the borders mind, seem a common theme of this winter so far. Details are still far from certain mind in terms of precipitation and as some in the SE saw, surprises can occur.

One thing to note about this potential cold snap is at least for a time, thicknesses will be lower than they were during the December cold spell so in theory even if uppers are not all that cold, it may still favour snowfall more than back in December. Also lower thicknesses I believe means a more unstable airmass so even if it ends up on the slack side then the potential is still there and a slack set up should at least guarantee hard frosts!

I thought the UK winters were getting wetter? Infact I'm seeing less of a trend of high pressure during winter time. The models have been constantly hinting the Euro high affecting our weather but it does not occur. More alarmingly for me was the recent cold spell, it was only cold because of the lack of wind, for a 3 week spell without Atlantic weather, the fact uppers were only on average around - 5 to - 7 said it all. If that set up occurred in the 70's and 80's, there would of been no issues with it being marginal even on coasts. Abyways looks a fairly normal winter pattern on the models at the moment, flat jet stream over us, low pressure in charge, European high not really influencing our weather that is for sure. As ever we keep looking just incase we may see an unexpected wedge of heights which may buckle the jet and give us something more interesting.

As usual with model output in any weather set up, if the first part is wrong then the rest of the run will be, it's a reason why we see varied model runs. No denying the output is getting worse and worse for coldies, even the Battleground Snow event for Scotland seems like it will be a Highland event only now however we seen many times, a doom and gloom scenario can change. The boxing day cold does look more and more on thin ice, very little in the way of wintry weather is likely from that(really need too see at least - 8 uppers generally from a polar NW'ly.

How is FI at 72 hours? We are talking about details here. It's quite clear too me the trend is southern areas are likely to remain mild possibly even very mild pre Xmas. Bit more uncertain for Northern areas as it all depends how far southwards the cold air does get but indications do seem to favour even Scotland may not get particularly cold air pre Xmas. It's quite clear looking at the models in general there is no high pressure spell, no significant cold spell(like what we had) on the way and any snowfall that does happen will be reserved for Scotland and if today runs are to go by, probably only Highland Scotland. If we are lucky we may get a colder shot after Xmas, by no means guranteed and not likely to last very long either.