Geordiesnow

The rain shadow has definately made its presence felt here been nothing but light rain only a few times with the odd threaten of turning wintry. I just can't see how it will change either as the colder air just make things even drier. Suppose the models did show this possibility but it still sucks. Hopefully other parts of the region can get their rewards tonight.

Still going to be interesting how it will all play out especially if the models are thinking there could be another wave/pulse of energy which could enhance the PPN. Also the period after midnight when the cold air digs back in could be of interest. However fair play to the Met Office, largely got it spot on so far, only surprise perhaps is the early snowfall over Merseyside but lower levels in general seeing very little is holding firm sadly.

Is there anything falling out of the sky where you are?

Finally some precipitation is falling and it's of rain!

May as well put the same marker down for here also, absolutely nothing but going by the reports, even if it did snowed, Im not missing much in terms of accumulations. It does sadly put further emphasis I'm probably not going too see any significant snow here unless it's a set up that is slack and unexpected.

But if the flakes get bigger, they could also be getting wetter so nothing will accumulate. It's not flake size that determines whether snow settles or not, it's the ground temperatures and air temps that are the most important factor.

Clearly ground temperatures are an issue and with things set to become more marginal this afternoon then I can see why the Met are saying barely anything at lower levels, looks to be a good call so far. Meanwhile here, we need something to fall to make the ground damp, the dry air is certainly making its presence felt.

Looks like this area is also another rainfall shadow hotspot. I suspect tomorrow we will again see reports of PPN over the region but not necessarily anything falling apart from when the mild boundary gets close no doubt. The only frontal snow events I can really see this region(or my area more especially) getting if there is a shallow low in the forecasts, winds too strong from the east will form the infamous rain shadow. Last year we did see a shallow low heading eastwards up here which bought prolonged snow(although struggled to settle as it was quite wet snow at times) but it was always going to be tempory as winds were forecast to come back in from the sea later in the day.

Cold air is dry so that would no doubt play a role. Having said that it can happen with rain also but on the eastern side of the Pennines moreso than in the west obviously. Let's see how things play out first though but if I was living in Yorkshire, I'll be getting very excited at what could happen tomorrow and especially tomorrow night. Cold air is dry so that would no doubt play a role. Having said that it can happen with rain also but on the eastern side of the Pennines moreso than in the west obviously. Let's see how things play out first though but if I was living in Yorkshire, I'll be getting very excited at what could happen tomorrow and especially tomorrow night.

One area which could receive alot of snow is Northern Ireland as the PPN stalls and pivots and with winds coming in off the sea, plenty of mositure piling in. I would be getting excited if I was living in those areas.

Looking increasingly likely things are going to be too marginal for lower levels sadly and when the colder air does start to dig back in, the rain shadow affect comes into play more so I can understand why the Met are saying nothing significant for lower levels.

Looks to me evaporative cooling will be limited because there is going to be a gusty easterly wind blowing. I also think the warning is also factoring the likely hood of a rain shadow affect occurring, its why I prefer a more shallower system but these do usually slide southwards. Lets see what today offers up though, will be a bonus as just a few days ago, today should of been a sunny and dry day.

Amazing too see Wearside is again is in the sweet spot whilst Tyneside at least looking at the cameras currently has got nothing. Was like that during December if I remember rightly.

Must admit not expecting much here as I think the air will be too dry and there is a clear rain shadow affect appearing in the models. It will be interesting watching it all develop though, it does look line the further south in the region you are the more risk but high reward scenario exist.

Just looked at the UKMO 18Z run with its PPN charts and it shows the rain shadow affect quite evidently, I don't think the GFS PPN charts will pick up on this because of its resolution. Probably another reason why a more shallow feature would be more favoured but we shall see how it all develops. The UKMO is edging tomorrow front event further north aswell, like i say anywhere south of Manchester could see some snowfall tomorrow.

I think that is a good point in the post above, there be some who will see snow but it won't lay because its too wet, some will see sleet and on the GFS especially the gradient is pretty tight so you could quickly see snow turning back to rain and then vice versa as the cold air tucks back in again.

Yep and it would be a bonus as it certainly was not in the script but dissappointly for me, it looks like skies will be quite milky and hazy, was nice seeing the crystal blue skies today.

I think the GFS does overdo the strength of the lows at times, would prefer a shallower system but it does shows a very tight temperature gradient which could enhance any PPN? For those in the south of the region, there is a growing indication that front could reach anywhere from Mancheter southwards one to keep an eye on I think.

Watched the footy resulted me in missing a very light snow shower as there is evidence of snowflakes/grains on top of the car. Radar showed a couple of shower cells in the vicinity also!

Indeed but you can't begrudge the facts though. The posts I hate is "I think we will see further adjustments southwards" basing on nothing but gut and probably wishful thinking. I am amazed how much the cold air is fighting back, it looked an almost foregone conclusion most of England will be in the milder air but now a slight change in the orientation and positioning of the low could well change the story all together.

Maybe but you can't deny the trends from today's runs. It's the further south you are, the more excited/nervous you should be. Can't see the shape of the low changing much now, so it's all down to radar watching and see where the PPN actually ends up.

The way that member from Leicester is going on and on, he will probably make sure it heads southwards! I'm sure the word "south" has appeared in every post he wrote in In all fairness though, it's not beyond the relms of possibility but today's runs are much better for our region as a whole. Still time for things to alter in the details though.

Would love to know the northern extent on the UKMO charts because I was not expecting such a difference in truthness. I do think the rain/snow shadow will play a role if the front does make it this far northwards, certainly would not be expecting constant snow for hours on end. On a side note, I think Northern Ireland could be hardest hit, looks to be the spot where the PPN arrives first, stalls and then pivots away.

UKMO has massively backtracked from previous runs, I might start to worry things will head too far southwards now!

Both the GFS/UKMO still has the more bowling ball shape low but especially in the UKMO case it is slightly flatter than previous runs. ECM has been more consistent in the more flatter slider set up which is obviously better for everyone apart from Thundersnow as there is a risk the PPN may not reach Carlisle. I'll still favour the GFS/UKMO option but it won't take much for the ECM option to occur, really fine margins. Back to the hear and now, it is a stunning clear blue skies day with sunshine, something that has been lacking for the past 2 weeks. Hopefully we can see some convection building up so at least see we can see one snow shower.