Geordiesnow

From my experience of living by the coast albeit on the west side(although I have lived 8 miles from the coast in the east in the past) for snowfall to be more guaranteed you need uppers of -8 in a modest to strong airflow. As Nick says, you able too get snowfall from higher uppers in a slack set up which is why I think the ECM 144 to 168 hours charts are underrated. On paper it does not look that interesting but with troughing over the UK, cold air and not much wind, the threat is certainly there for organised precipation with the threat of snowfall somewhere.

Can do if the conditions are right, unfortunately we are relying on developing cold pools over Scandinavia on this occasion rather than the PV dropping through Scandinavia(slight hints this may happen in the longer term but too far out at this stage) and giving us more guaranteed cold that would lead to snowfall. In these developing cold pool situations, sometimes the models can underestimate the depth of the cold and there has been marginal upgrades in the potency of the easterly as a result(more patchy - 6 hpa over the UK instead of - 4 with the - 8hpa flirting with the far NE of Scotland and Shetland) in recent runs. The ECM probably has the perfect set up of not mixing out the cold too quickly whilst there is a potential snow risk because the flow becomes very slack with troughing over the UK. Of course slight changes can reduce the amount of cold air reaching the UK so its not a gurantee it will upgrade but its something im watching after initially being quite dismissive of snow potential in the medium term.

I think the ECM run around 144 to 168 hours is one of those where on the face of it over the UK it does not look interesting but with slack winds, chilly air above and potential for PPN as there is a trough embedded over the UK it could produce some surprises. This is where the more modest uppers may not be an issue, still prefer if the air was a touch colder mind but its interesting too see.

As a general rule of thumb, any flow coming in from the open waters, you need uppers of at least -8 to gurantee snowfall though higher ground and perhaps well inland areas can perhaps get away with uppers higher than that. In terms of windflow, at least initially the easterly does not look too strong so there be less mixing so an increased chance of snowfall if the ingredients are right but I do suspect the cold air is not quite strong enough for most I'm afraid. If the - 8 hpa does hit the UK, aslong as there is PPN my confidence would increase.

But that's the nature of model runs, there is always going to be variation on the theme. It's quite clear we are heading into a period of quieter weather with a continental influence with chilly but largely stable easterly airflow. One of those though a little vortex of low pressure within the flown could enhance PPN but Im not too convinced the air is cold enough for snow though but one to watch perhaps in terms of something unexpected. The threat of milder air getting drawn up via that Iberian low is certainly plausible also.

Yep there is just too much blocking and no real signs apart from the rogue run which suggests the PV will drop into Scandinavia so you end up with alot of blocking but very little in the way of cold air. Hints it may turn milder again next weekend are increasing but its still too far out to be sure.

I don't know how the wheels are falling off, the chilly snap is still there, the UK is still getting a continental flow and there is no trend towards any Atlantic weather as of yet. The Iberian low will continue to be modeled differently within every run, some may favour some might not. Personally I'm just looking forward to a drier spell even if its not particularly exciting weather apart from the potential threat of frost and fog midweek.

But as usual the problem is, whether its good or bad, there is too much emphasis on it and people expect the charts to show more or less similar within every run. Also this thing about we should not expect anything until at least the 5th is also wrong, the blocking pattern which influences our weather is starting in a few days time, how cold it gets is still uncertain but the general idea is snowfall is not on the menu at the moment and we are feeding on scraps in terms of cold air avaliable.

Yeah might be some shower activity for northern areas but temperatures not cold enough for much wintriness. Suspect the air will be quite stable also due to high thicknesses. Got to accept there will be a period where the weather will be uneventful but that is a sacrafice to take if it leads to the true cold air.

The good ol' infamous day 10! I actually thought the the GFS 12Z run was an decent run in fairness, block more south and westwards and some hint of troughing in Western Russia. The lack of deep cold will always be there though in the short to medium term. It's ashame the small pools of cold air we do have are not that just bit colder over the UK as any shallow heights within the flow(as the GFS shows) increases the risk of precipation and with a continental flow may give surprising snow somewhere but the air is not cold enough sadly.

Quite sad seeing those charts, really does smack of climate change yet despite that, brutal cold is still around in the northern hemisphere but the PV just seems to split in the usual locations, one lobe goes towards America and Canada and the other goes to Asia and Siberia therefore Scandinavia and Europe get left with the scraps and you see the result of that! Decent runs on a seasonal point of view and those who hate wind and rain, nothing at all in the output excites me on a snow enthusiast point of view. We really need too see more cold troughing in the outputs, far too much yellow on the charts!

Sometimes I think you can have too much blocking and this could prove the case here, unless I start seeing any trends of reduce heights around western Russia and Scandinavia then on a snow point of view, I think it's going to be almighty difficult too see any snow in the UK. Even frost could be somewhat limited due to the lack of cold air potebtial cloud cover.

It's why I think the Russian high is such an overrated feature because it does not usually favour our part of the hemisphere and if anything just has a negative impact as far as cold is concerned. Lots of WAA heading up to the Barants and Kara seas so keeping them ice free which means more warming, Scandinavia is above average 850 wise and real cold is literally a million miles away. And whilst things can change, there is no indication of any significant PV dropping around the edge of that high so whilst the blocking outlook may reduce any Atlantic based weather, if its cold and snow your after, its not coming anytime soon.

Despite the blocked output, we are a long way off from a cold snowy output in all reality, one of those where patience is a virtue because the main bulk of the PV is heading towards Asia with impressive negative anaomolies whilst Scandinavia and Europe will be dealing with scraps. Unless we see troughing dropping down from the Arctic towards Scandinavia or down the Norwegian sea via a northerly, there won't be any mention of snow in the outputs. Hopefully we can get the dry anticyclonic weather from this rather than the chilly NE'ly the models are showing.

What an interesting Autumn this has been over Eurasia, from a chilly September to a very warm October and it's little wonder snowcover is struggling to expand. Then I see the temperature anaomolies and they are just utterly depressing too see quite frankly, probably less than 20% of the northern hemisphere is below average with little areas seeing significant below average temperatures. Im not one of those that believes a rapid snow cover increase can increase a cold winter theory, I just don't buy into it but what I do buy into is near record breaking temperatures will mean it will be exceptionally difficult to get a cold winter for the UK. Chilly spells and even snow events can't be ruled out but the PV lobes are just much weaker these days(gone are the days you see uppers of - 40hpa in the Arctic for example).

I think if there is a chance of a cold month in these warming times, it will be winter/early spring. Imo, with climate change, we will never ever see a below average month in summer ever again. The issue with winter nowadays is because of climate change/low sea ice, the PV is much weaker so the depth of cold is not there anymore. Western Europe/Western Russia/Svalbard and the Barants/Kara seas has seen the biggest climate change in the last 30 years. America/Canada and the Siberia are the only areas where severe cold tends to occur these days. The fact that 99% of the landmasses we see on the Wetterzentrale Europe charts will remain above freezing tonight in Mid October is quite indicative of that. Its depressing too see but thats the reality.

Yeah no doubt something along those lines will occur! I feel more confident of seeing snowfall in April than during winter because of the increased risk of Northern blocking during April! If this set up occurred with cold air wrapped in around it, there be much less PPN because of the colder air but would give some areas some snowfall for sure.

Yep everytime a weather event occurs, the BBC news reports online has to include a paragraph about climate change, very obsessed to mention it which no doubt marks people(including me who does believe in climate change). All that said, it's quite clear looking at the charts things are getting warmer so there should be no denial of it really. Also the fact when I first joined the forum a long time back now, getting the 15CHpa temperature was seen as exceptional, now its becoming more frequent that unless the 20C 850 temp hits, there is a tinge of dossapointment as evident during the last hot spell where we had countless posts obsessing where that 20C 850 line was!

Maybe but the climate change message must get out there. The warning signs have been in place in most summers across the Northern hemisphere with record heat being recorded in large areas, now its our turn to of experienced these ever increasing temperatures and the consequences of it. Do have to be careful with the this is going to be the norm talk, apparently the summers of 2007 to 2012 was going to be more frequent because of a warming climate but the UK weather is never that simple.

Could also angle the jet in such a way it becomes more wavey and we are still on the warmer side of the jet stream? September's can often be warm and dry despite increasing colder air at the polar regions, we shall find out if this September will be similar.

Only August and the guilt tripping posts are already appearing, it's going to be a long old winter in more ways than one. As for summer, it's just perfect to be out in, temperatures just below mid twenties and clear blue skies and sunshine, the sort of weather I crave for living in a seaside town. Just ashame for the most of this summer around here, it has not been like that at all. I do appreciate obviously the drought situation further south and its been a cracking summer if you like dry weather. Obviously alot of talk regarding climate change but don't folks remember how the summers between 2007 and 2012 was also a sign of climate change and how those summers could become the norm because if the high latitudes regions are high pressure dominated(due to increasing warm air up there) it will send the jet stream further south and low pressure systems would usually stall over the UK, well that has not happened either so don't always expect a summer like this one and the rains will return. Enjoy this week whilst it lasts!

It's amazing really, people especially from our region are complaining about summer weather, may we remind ourselves about the summers between 2007 and 2012 which we thought would be the trend because of climate change as the theory was if the northern latitudes are warmer, it encourages more blocking therefore the jet stream is further south and going through the UK. The forecasts of the same old low pressure stalling over the UK was quite a common sight with any high pressure being very transient indeed. Heat is not ideal I accept but flooding is more damaging and the flooding we saw during 2007 especially we were told could become more frequent because of climate change. This summer has not been hot and dry here, even during the last heatwave, it still managed to rain!(albeit it was just a brief heavy shower but still) so I'm welcoming this spell of sunny weather with open arms. Should not be too hot either up here so bring it on because its back to reality next week from the look of things.

Windermere really need rain!? Everything is fairly green around here, goodness me even during the heatwave we still manage too see some rain from a convective shower! Been drizzling since late evening here, ground soaking wet. London could of done with this stalling weather front really.

I think for our latitude it's more early to mid August is the warmest after mid August the higher latitudes slowly but surely showing signs of cooling down although that can depend on the weather patterns and the sea ice state up there. It might be years before the next record is broken but now the infamous 40C has been reached, its been proven it can happen on our shores and if the future predictions are right then it will get higher still no doubt.

What also alarming is these records are getting earlier in the summer season, in theory early to mid August is the hottest part of the season. Yes it is quite a unique set up but remember the very dry continent is another factor of climate change so its all add to the positive feedback of warming temperatures. Another thing, when I see widespread plus 10C hpa temperatures at Svalbard like it has occurred in the past day or so(aided by ridiculas warm SSTS up there) then you know things are not right.