Lettucing Gutted

10.5C

14C

The coldest mean daily CET ever recorded in September was 28th September 1824 with a CET of only 4.9C! That is colder than the 1971-2000 CET average for December!http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetdl1772on.dat

Indeed there even showing 19-20C in the southern quarter of the UK despite long draw cyclonic Northwesterly winds.

I believe its more common in places with a cool continental temperate climate like northeast China, Siberia and Canada were a southerly tracking jet can allow the cool Siberian high to build even in summer.

It will be interesting to see what the Atlantic lows do. If they dive Northwest-Southeast into Europe we could be on track for the coolest September since 1993 however if the Atlantic lows stall to the west in that cold pool to the west we could have a very warm September like 2005 or even 2006.

Im really losing confidence in my slightly below average outcome with signs of a west based -NAO/-AO and Scandi Ridge for September. Sorry to cause trouble but I'll raise my guess to 15.5C.

13.4C

I chose winter as my favourite season and snow as my favourite weather associated with Continental Polar or Maritime Polar air. However I don't mind spring, summer, autumn or winter if they either have cool sunshine and showers weather associated with Maritime Polar winds or beautiful crisp cool sunny weather associated with Maritime Polar or Continental Polar high pressure systems. Put another way I will hate all of our seasons if they are hot/mild with Maritime Tropical or Continental Tropical air!

If this August records a CET of 17C or higher 2010 will be the first year to see 2 consecutive 17C and over months since 2003.

That would also mean an August will be cooler than both the June and July in the same summer since 1993.

Indeed Summer Blizzard an east based La Nina like 1995/1996 and an west based El Nino like 2009/2010 will often give us cool/cold winters and other seasons. This is because an east based La Nina and west based El Nino teleconnects to a cold east based -ve AO/NAO block (Cold Northerlies over UK) or cold zonality +ve AO/NAO (Cold Westerlies or Southerly tracking lows over UK). However a west based La Nina like 1974/1975 and an east based El Nino like 1997/1998 will often give use mild/hot winters and other seasons. This is because an west based La Nina and east based El Nino teleconnects to a warm west based -ve AO/NAO block (Warm Southerlies over UK) or warm zonality +ve AO/NAO (Warm Westerlies or Azores High ridging over UK).

20C

What are the odds of July finishing below 17C making July 2010 the 4th sub 17C July in a row? Also if July 2010 finises below 16.8C it will be the 12th consecutive summer month to be cooler than September 2006.

It is now the 45th Anniversary of this forgotten high-summer cold snap. With a Mean CET Daily temperature of only 10C the 4th of July 1965 was the coldest July day of the 20th Century and indeed recent times. http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cetdl1772on.dat

Unless the Mid-Atlantic Ridge returns summer 2010 could do great warming damage to our chances of recording a sub 10C year especially if summer 2010 averages 16C or higher with June 15.5C and both July and August 17.1C or higher.

As the nights get longer the heat gets stronger 20C.

I think those warm "Northerlies/Northeasterlies" were the result of Returning Continental Tropical airmasses. May 2004 had an unusual pattern in which prior to the Northerlies/Northeasterlies establishing over Britain warm humid Continental Tropical air had got pumped up unusually far north into Northern Scandinavia and that meant our Northerlies were giving us warm humid and sunny Returning Continental Tropical air instead of cool dry Continental Polar air.

Im just going to ingore yet another of your sarcastic comments. <_<

Here are the negative anomalies with respect to the 1961-90 average:- May 2010: 10.7 (-0.5) Feb 2010: 2.8 (-1.0) Jan 2010: 1.4 (-2.4] Dec 2009: 3.1 (-1.5) Jan 2009: 3.0 [-0.8] Dec 2008: 3.5 (-1.6) Oct 2008: 9.7 (-0.9) Sep 2008: 13.5 (-0.1) Jun 2008: 13.9 (-0.3) Aug 2007: 15.4 (-0.4] July 2007: 15.2 (-0.9) Mar 2006: 4.9 (-0.8] Feb 2006: 3.7 (-0.1) Dec 2005: 4.4 (-0.2) Nov 2005: 6.2 (-0.3) Oct 2004: 10.4 (-0.2) July 2004: 15.8 (-0.3) Oct 2003: 9.2 (-1.4) Oct 2002: 10.1 (-0.5) Jul 2002: 16.0 (-0.1) Dec 2001: 3.6 (-1.0) Sep 2001: 13.4 (-0.2) Apr 2001: 7.7 (-0.2) Mar 2001: 5.2 (-0.5) Jan 2001: 3.2 (-0.6) One ironic effect despite losing a lot of months from Kevin's list is that we gain October 2004 when we compare below average months with the 1961-1990 average since like June; October's 1961-1990 average was warmer than its 1971-2000 average unlike the other months of the year.

Speaking of heatwave 30c was reached somewhere in London on the 24/5/10; it was at least forcasted to do so. If so May 2010 will be one of the few sub 11c CET Mays if not the only one to achieve 30c anywhere in the UK.

19C

Indeed throughout history countries that are vulnerable to hot and thundery weather such as Bangladesh, India and China have suffered from grapefruit size hailstones that have fallen though scorching 40C low level air temperatures.

15.5C

The thing that has surprised me is how the recent lows have been able to sustain themselves here this far north and bring mild weather despite the very cool North Sea.