Lettucing Gutted

I hate the heat and prefer the cold. The reason I keep predicting record warm CETS all year around is because really cold April-August months become rare since the late '80s.

Yeah talking of March warm spells I think March 1965 is one of the few Marches which have achieved 20C or higher extreme maxima and yet still finished below average.

12C. The cooling trend is over.

In terms of temperature does the "Returning Maritime Polar" Southwesterly type give cool weather especially by night whereas the "Mobile Atlantic" Southwesterly type gives very mild/warm weather especially by night? Interestingly June 2003 had a Negative North Atlantic and Southwesterly pattern and yet was very warm due to deep long draws of Maritime Tropical air.

Indeed Mr Data it all depends on the airmasses. The high from February 2008 was warm and sunny due to an early Continental Tropical air plume:- http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2008/Rrea00120080212.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/2008/Rrea00220080212.gif Whereas the current high is cold and sunny due to its Continental Polar air origin from the North Pole similar to the very cold March 1962:- http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1962/Rrea00119620316.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1962/Rrea00219620316.gif

It seems like the current sunny and cold scenario is the result of the Arctic High ridging south. Also these cool anticyclonic spells are not exclusive to the winter and spring months. They can also occur in the autumn and summer months like August 1993.

The last year that didn't produce any months 1.0C or more above their respective CET average was 1996.

One of the reasons why its easier to get a large negative anomaly in winter compared to summer is the wider range of sources of cold air in winter compared to summer. In winter you can get cold Continental Polar air from the Arctic, cold Maritime Polar air from the Atlantic during Cold Zonality and cold Continental Polar air from the Continent. However in summer you can only get cold Maritime Polar air from Atlantic Cold Zonality and Continental Polar air from Arctic originated Northeasterlies, Northerlies and Northwesterlies. The Continental Easterlies always bring warm, humid and sunny weather in the summer rivaling southerly and southwesterly warm, humid and sunny plumes.

I was interested by this post in the model output discussion thread today. Apparently easterlies can bring widespread cold and bright weather even in May however when was the last time we had a "cold easterly with a "northerly" source" in May?

If what I said wasnt clear enough I meant the whole combined March-April-May 2010 CET average will be the 14th warmest in a row.

10C ushering in yet another mild blowtorch spring. 14 in a row... :lol:

The mild springs and autumns since after 1996 have been real killers for recording years below 10C.

1) The last winter were 2 sub 3C months occured in a row was 1996-1997 with December 1996 2.9C and January 1997 2.5C. 2) The last winter were all 3 months were sub 3C was 1962-1963 with December 1962 1.8C, January 1963 -2.1C and February 1963 -0.7C. This was also the last winter were all months were sub 2C. 3) The last winter were all 3 months were below their own 1961-1990 averages was 1990-1991 with December 1990 4.3C, January 1991 3.3C and February 1991 1.5C.

And also a nina-like low GLAAM signal should reinforce a southerly tracking jetstream.

8C

Of course. I'd rather be pleasantly surprised if we had a cold year despite me predicting a very mild year than being very disappointed if we had a mild year despite me predicting a cold 'un.

January-March for me should be cold, sunny and snowy remaining cool, sunny and showery for the rest of the whole year.

What are the other ways of forming Scandinavian Ridges?

Indeed in pages 51 to 52 of Philip Eden's book a "Change in The Weather" he said of the March 1970 cold wave in Britain that the snowman he made called Snowman Ted persisted till the 22nd March 1970 despite unbroken sunshine.

At 16.6C it was 0.8C above the 1961-1990 August average of 15.8C

March 2009 was also mild and in the eastern 3rd of the UK August 2009 was a very mild month as well.

8C

Assuming the December 2009 CET finishes at 3.5C the December 2010 CET will have to be cooler than 7.6C in order for the 1981-2010 December CET average to be cooler than the 1971-2000 December CET average of 5.1C.

It seems to be spring and summer when the gfs has minimum and maximum temperatures below reality.

This year could see the biggest November to December cool down since 1995.