xerxes
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Posts posted by xerxes
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Great display again this morning - taking place now
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Not sure if this is the place but at 3.30am there was a nice display of Noctilucent Clouds. They were no longer visible by 4am
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A decent description from ChrisK regarding the triggerpoints relating to the plume.
The warm front due to arrive overnight Friday into Satuday will likely provide some good thundery activity given the instability still around into the early hours, and the high potential across N.France later on Friday.
The cold front on Saturday would appear to be when we may expect the most violent storms as the parameters across Eastern England by mid afternoon are excellent.
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Interesting read on Exacta weathers forecasts http://weatherman79.wordpress.com/2014/01/19/winter-forecasting-the-broken-clock-conundrum/
Then just under 3 weeks later
Indeed - posted that one yesterday - probably should have mentioned it was about Mr Madden's excellent forecasts(LOL)
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Well I was appalled by the attack on NW in the past week
Anyway, the following is an interesting testimony that is doing the rounds this afternoon
Very cleverly constructed and tells us what we as enthusiastic amateurs already know about the site in question;0)
http://weatherman79.wordpress.com/2014/01/19/winter-forecasting-the-broken-clock-conundrum/
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I never have understood why people get so frenetic over each run. To me this cold spell (with my 50 years experience) was only going to produce cold rain and sleet to all but the higher ground. So while it might seem a downgrade the upgrade was mostly superficially over ramped from what was likely to occur so perhaps the downgrade isn't as big as some might believe and should come as no surprise as all the best charts were from outside the reliable 5 days range. I still think there will be some eye candy for some to salivate over on the remaining runs tonight but I for one, even if they show good synoptics will not be dusting off any snow shovel yet. It is too early in the season at least in the South. Sea temperatures are too high still and the ground has still got a lot of warmth left in it after a mild Autumn. Wait a month and see these synoptics then I will get more excited.
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I'm sensing an increasing pessimism about the summer. In the model thread Snowking has suggested that the overwhelming signal for the summer is a "sceuro trough" (i assume with ridging to the south west?) - which wouldn't be great at all for warmth and would surely deliver a cool, unsettled summer. Having said that, in the south it might at least be a bit drier than last year in that set up instead of having a mean upper trough anchored over the UK.
Added to that, it doesn't look like we're going to dodge the bullet of the unsettled regime setting in from later next week and SP1986 (in the model thread) suggests that this pattern may well get "locked in" (where have we heard that before?) which would tie in with the "sceuro trough" dominated summer. It's funny how only cold or unsettled patterns have any chance of being "locked in" these days.
Also, i've been following the CFS a little more closely this year just for interest and in my opinion it is gradually settling on an average/slightly below May and is gradually backing away from the "two good summer months" scenario.
I now have a low expectation for this summer again having been a bit more positive a while ago. I suppose cool and dry i could tolerate - cool and wet again i couldn't.
Largely agree with those comments. I have thought for some time that we will see a predominance of Northern blocking again this summer and a resultant rather poor summer. I really hope I'm wrong but my head says that it will be rather wet and at best average in terms of temps
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Been watching an area of intense rain for many hours between initially Chichester and Reigate and now Chichester and Farnham. Chichester must be underwater!
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Video taken from the car on my phone as the cloudbase passed
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It was hard to get a good shot of the approaching squall(2 miles S of Alton) as there was already rain falling which hindered the clarity of the cloudbase but I was reasonably certain of a funnel on the mid/left of this shot given that it was there for a couple of minutes in an otherwise chaotic cloudscape. Impossible to be sure unfortunately. Once arrived it delivered torrential rain, hail and strong SLW's
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Is that a potential bow echo coming up from the Portsmouth area?
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Miffed by the lack of a MetO warning to be honest
Indeed - another dormant cell has just hit Basingstoke with some torrential rain
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Away from some intense rain that affected Alton a while back the developments closing in on the IOW need watching. That's a very intense and developing convection line heading NE. Probably responsible for the Bournemouth activity
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I also wondered why ESTOFEX havent issued anything. Skywarn seem to be thinking that as the surface low centre moves across the South, thats when these storms could develop. On radar though at the moment lightning activity seems to have slowed down in the SW as it approaches, but some cropping up in the midlands N/NW of Coventry?
I think it literally is a day of just watching where things do suddenly crop up.
Perhaps Estofex are away on vacation LOL
Some talk of a MCS developing across the south after dark. I would not be surprised as the instability source switches to the English Channel and onshore winds as the trough approaches.
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Well maybe it is from the Atlantic but at least it shows at least 5 day's of high pressure, and not Low pressure ok it may not be sunny and dry every day, but anything is better than low pressure, anyway south westerly winds this time of year are warm!
At least be optimistic and say July won't be as bad as June
All a bit fractious in here tonight. Reminds me of winter! It's a fair point to mention the AH ridging next week as it's more likely to occur than the stuff even further out into fantasy land. Given the possibility of June's synoptics reoccuring with time, at least it's likely to be a bit warmer as the ambient temperature is usually higher in July.
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I issued a summer forecast elsewhere that may already be well off the mark if current thinking verifies. I hoped we may avoid the European Monsoon this year but the increased possibilities of Northern blocking and slack low pressure over continental Europe look like the makings of a lot of precipitation for parts of the UK at various points this June.....and certainly not that warm. My hope is that we follow a 1997 style pattern with a hot August although hot spells in that month are pretty damn rare nowadays
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Being a storm fan I agree. Certainly some heavy rain now from the first pulse although developments near Bournemouth now look interesting. Some intense rainfall heading NESome ACTIVE weather possible or id say likely heading our way this eve/overnight, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS, lightning and thunder, even a chance of THUNDERSTORMS never know what might turn up!!
Thought more would be interested in this..?
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Well on the ground, the initial CF has just gone through Alton with a spell of torrential rain and hail albeit brief. Wind shear of about 60 degrees. 2M temps were 6.3C at the onset and are falling quickly, now 4.6C, that in 10 minutes and still going
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Looks like many will at least get some rain out of this system. Seems to be developing nicely as it engages the warmth on its leading edge
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Wow indeed. Thats known as explosive development! Either way its very interesting and makes a night shift more bearable!!!Wow cells exploded in a N-S line between Eastbourne and Le Havre!
More sferics from the Calais cell and a new one just off the coast of Thanet
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Just seen the ECM run and I must say I did not expect both Euro models to struggle so
much with this upcoming pattern change, what a coup for the GFS model.
Having said that it is only the period t96 to t144 where they are misinterpreting the
movement of the energy in the Atlantic and this is having a knock on effect for the
rest of the run.
They should be fully on board by the end of tomorrow though.
I hope you're right CC. As posted earlier, the ECM run was a big mild outlier in the latter stages. I guess that fact that there is such disagreement is a good thing based on recent winters where we needed straws. The Meto update will make interesting reading again tomorrow!
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Stonking runs again this morning i really do like GME i must say
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgme1321.gif
Some strange people on TWO looking ahead to after T+300 hrs, everything upto T+168 hrs to me points towards a very long cold spell which even with a worse case scenario euro high will stay cold for ages.
ps GFS 00Z early next week isnt a snow to rain event at all, we stay on cold side.
LOL - Looking into the distant parts of any output is fairly irrelevent at the best of times IMO but currently all we can say is that the trend is cold, if not very cold once the front retreats away to the SE. 2010 looks to have a bitter start to say the least, and with general model agreement
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wooo 00z is good even better then last one for cold sunday -7 blimey - have you seen north sea could freeze 1c omg im gunna faint
Indeed - makes you wonder where we'll be in the run-up to xmas day. The 0z operational certainly keeps a tantalising threat on our doorstep later on. What a week ahead though
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Rather tasty line of cells streaming into Dorset
http://www.meteox.com/gmapstatic.aspx?zoom=6&type=zoom&x=178&y=276
Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Very good assessment. Developments upstream will be the key to the jet speed and profile. Until we get something to disrupt matters its more of the same for next 10 days. Of course the feeling often is that early winter in El Nino years can be dominated by an active jet and ostensibly mild conditions with the colder weather towards winters end. It will be good to test this theory now that we have this mild start.