Uncle_Barty
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Posts posted by Uncle_Barty
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ah - thats better! thanks.
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For those of you wanting to check the latest jetstream forecast, we have a new page online here::
http://www.netweathe...jetstream;sess=
To go with that, (thanks to Ed for writing this) we also have a jetstream tutorial with pretty much everything you need to know about the jet which you can view here:
Is it me or are the figures out of kilter with the article in the 2nd link?
Finding it very hard to follow logically...
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Aldergrove fell from 11c at 1250 to 4c at 1320
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Maxed at 23.8c today, about a degree down on yesterday thanks to a light sea breeze.
Also 9-10 miles of solid queuing traffic out of Bournemouth all the way to Ringwood due to sheer volume of traffic, normally only see that in summer. TomTom Live showing in excess of one hour delay just to get the other side of Ringwood. Ouch!
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Don't feed the troll... I suspect his account won't be alive for much longer anyway.
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Here the temperature has dropped last a few tenths of a degree, now 27.3C, thanks to high cloud moving in, making the sun very hazy indeed. The high cloud out to the west looks more extensive than any seen so far this afternoon.
So it looks like here at least, the maximum temperature has been reached for the day at 27.6C
It will be very difficult to beat this again in October in my lifetime, I'm pretty sure I'll never see anything like this again.
That's what I said back in 1985!
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Mad to think that no June 13th has ever been as hot as today
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24.0c here now which breaks my October record back to and including 1996.
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Interesting to note that the MJO has suddenly moved from the neutral area into Phase 2, which suggests high height anomalies over the UK stretching NW over Grenland and down through Canada to the Mid-west, and low anomalies over Newfoundland and eastern Europe into Russia.
Make of that what you will!
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Worth noting that in the past week, the MJO has moved quickly through phase 1, then phase 2 - the latter in 3 days flat to the 16th and looks to be about to move into Phase 3.
Composites for July suggest a height anomaly centred west of Ireland but also exttending over the UK into the near Continent. For August the suggestion is for the height anomaly centred north of Scotland.
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Would concur re: 1981. August was decent here in Dorset after an indiferent June and July
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GFS Is changing more times than enough,
http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1261.png
We have high pressure moving in by Sunday now
http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1501.png
http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1741.png
http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1921.png
GFS has a new LP system around the 20th, no doubt it will be totally different again this time tomorrow
http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn2161.png
I wonder what ECM will offer later, GFS isn't keen to follow ECM.
GFS FI still teasing us with High pressure and temps of around 25c for the south from the 23rd onwards
I'm not sure about high pressure for Sunday - the isobaric curvature is still cyclonic on every chart you link to, bar Monday.
Looks like Monday only gives a respite before the next low moves in on Tuesday.
Long way off though!
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ridge of low pressure? I assume you mean trough.....
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Thats assuming the MJO forecast is accurate, mushy.
It's been forecast to move into Phase 1 for some time but is still stuck stubbornly in neutral.
Not an expert, but I'm guessing that's the reason why the general pattern has remained unchanged. Fair comment, chiono/GP?
Edit: MJO moved into low-amplitude phase 8 yesterday. Lets see where it goes in tne next few days....
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High pressure, or to be more exact, high 500mb heights over Greenland usually has a detrimental effect on summer prospects here, but you can get poor summer weather here without those heights over Greenland, as July 1988 shows.
However, the lowering of heights over Greenland after a protracted spell can herald a pattern change which will perhaps lead to an improvement in the weather over the UK generally.
Probably why some (including myself) are very keen to see those heights drop.
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Both ECM and GFS show heights over Greenland dropping towards the 8-10 day mark. Little way off of course but lets see.....
Some model output also showing hints of the MJO moving into Phase 8 which would not be bad news at all for those wanting settled weather. It's currently neutral/low amplitude Phase 1 and has hardly moved in recent days, despite forecasts of it marching solidly into Phase 1 (that caused Chiono's "I dont believe it!" outburst a week or two back.).
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I prefer his posts to the one-line "terrible run" or similar kind of posts, or worse, deliberately trying to wind up people.
At least he is taking a view and backing it up with evidence.. even if it is often in FI.
I really don't have a problem with his posts.
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whilst there may be no +ve signals from the teleconnections atm, there might well be in a few days time,... (please correct me if im wrong), wheres the mjo heading ?
towards phase 1 and forecast to move strongly that way by pretty much everyone.
The model output Tuesday onwards does reflect the Phase 1 composites for July.
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MJO forecasts are mixed - many suggesting a move into Phase 1 (not good news from the July composites - a continuation of the pattern that has persisted for much of this month) but one or two edging towards phase 8 which suggests something a lot better for summer prospects (+ve height anomalies over UK and Scandinavia), so it seems that it's all up for grabs.
I am taking any model output beyond the end of the week with a warehouse of salt.
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MJO moving into Phase 2 suggestiung lowering heights over Greenland on the July composites.
Most forecasts suggest MJO moving into phase 1 which wouldnt be great news as it suggests a continuation of the June pattern for most if not all for us.
However, the ECM ensembles are forecasting an eventual move into phase 8 which would be better news for summer:
So it's all up for grabs, methinks. Your thoughts Chiono/GP? you're far more experienced at looking at these things than I am.
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Really doesnt look too bad down south - ok no heatwave but definitely an improvement on the middle third of this month. Further north and west looks like being plagued by troughs but even then not to the extent of recent weeks.. at least the troughing looks less deep and heights are generally higher everywhere.
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Interesting.
GP/Chiono.. is this sudden change in the GWO behind the change in the model output of late?
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Unbelieveable!
Of all the phases that he MJO could head to in July there is one that we don't want to see that would probably keep us in the same pattern. Phase 1!
Guess in what direction the MJO forecasts are heading? I don't think that I need to answer.
Indeed, Phase 1 would not be good news!
However, a number of forecasts are still projecting Phase 2:
which removes the high anomalies over Greenland but still indicates an upper trough over the UK if I am reading it right?
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MJO now generally forecast to move into Phase 2 by early July....
Composite anomaly chart looks more encouraging for something more summery perhaps? Chiono?
The Run Up To Winter 2011/2012- Signs Of A Cold/mild Winter And The Autumnal 'building Blocks'
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Interesting points BftP. There has been a change with ther summer patterns as well with a lot of northern blocking prevalent.
On another note... I don't consider "building blocks" as such, more a case of Reason's Cheese (wiki Swiss Cheese Model).
All the holes in the cheese need to line up for a "big freeze", especially down south.