Uncle_Barty
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Posts posted by Uncle_Barty
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And with the MJO having moved into weak phase 4 and then smartly back to the centre ("neutral"? whats the correct terminology?), I guess we won't be seeing a change any time soon.
How often is the GWO chart updated? Last update was the 8th.
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http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/gcm/gwo_40d.gif
This is the fellow that can unlock the door to a change from that anticyclonic stalemate.. and it looks like a turn is only a few days away..
Will be interesting to see what it looks like when it updates... last update was the 8th.
What sort of movement would we need to see to give us some hope of a pattern change down the line?
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Disregard my last - found it.
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Incidentally...
I was looking back through this thread for links to the 500mb anomaly MJO charts and came up with
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/MJO.html
But that link appears to be dead.
GP or Chiono (or anyone else..) - do you have an up to date link please?
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MJO forecast:
Not experienced at all at reading these but CFS seems to send it into Phase 5/6 then back into 'neutral'...
What are the possible implications should that come off?
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Clear and 15.8c already. Gonna be a good one.
Will be lighting the barbie this evening, looks likely to be the last real opportunity this side of the middle of the month at least.
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Indeed John, there is some interpretation to suggest here that: models are being too progressive in the removal of the mean ridge to our east; and, the re-set of the tough aligned to our west is coming onto the horizon of some of the longer range modelling, which tends to agree with where relative angular momentum is and will likely be in next 2-3 weeks. That said, I wouldn't rule out the temporary ridge to our west as it agrees with a phase 0 GWO and MJO altough we are likely to see some attempt to build the ridge back to the east in the next 10 day period.
Worth noting GFS 11-15 day ensemble mean builds the ridge back and ECM ensemble spread at t168 is moderate to large around the North Atlantic suggesting some degree of uncertainty about the modelling of the ridge.
so are we still looking at sustained warmth after this blip and when will the warmth roughly begin?
To be fair to John, the info is all in there, Geoff, and that is as much detail as one could possibly give.
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Northern blocking and a more southerly-latitude tracking jet, so another 2007 or 2008? I hope to god that is not the case.
What do you think, GP?
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You can use the netweather radar on htc mobiles, we have apps planned for both the iphone and android mobiles in 2011.
Not Blackberry?
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Good idea - look forward to it.
Maybe Martin Gibbs' excellent summaries that have started to make a very welcome appearance here could also be included, unless it is intended that they are each separate threads.
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i cant vouch for the rest of your post but we are not in a deep solar minimum - Sunspots were present on over 85% of the days in 2010
Agree - solar flux and sunspot levels are significantly above 'rock bottom' values, even if they are still well below the levels seen at recent (most 20th century) solar maxima.
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Is that being hinted at then, C?
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Thanks, Paul!
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Hi,
Is there a list of the various map descriptions available with the filenames when doing a custom map?
I know one can select a map and view the description froma pop up box but if you're trying to find a particular one it's a bit time consuming.
TIA....
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certainly wernt 12c here in portsmouth it was very mild infact close to muggy infact it feel pretty warm still.
looking better for the rest of the week though.
12c or less here for the bulk of the day.
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Oh my god, after all that from me yesterday about the trend of the HP being way too far South, and it continuing to do so. It's pushed North again!! and I and other people are in the firing line now.
I cant believe it, i look like an idiot now. Maybe i need to stop been so hasty and learn how to read the blooming models better. I really am shocked, it's proved me so blooming wrong lol, 12 runs south 2 runs North. :|
And that's why I always say that nothing is ever nailed on until it arrives. There was certainly a trend to move the high south over the BI and that might yet still happen! It's all down to specifics that are chopping and changing all the time. Personally I am using the model output as a guide, together with the valuable mutterings of GP et al.
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Well the model drama continues this morning with the UKMO the lone survivor amongst a sea of less than inspiring model output. I think the uncertainty will finally be over this evening as the model divergence starts quite early at 96hrs.
To be honest, I don't think we can say the the uncertainty will ever be over until there is a huge pattern change and we lose the northern blocking/ -AO etc, ending up in a more 'normal' pattern... this being some weeks away I expect.
The models have been flip-flopping all over the place for some weeks now and in all honesty I think we can only look at them for trends if anything beyond t+96 or so.
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Nice work fellas. Looking forward to the fully-featured release.
BTW anyone know why the GFS overlays arn't working on the V4?
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It's still a long way off in weather terms and it's never 'in the bag' or 'nailed on' until it arrives. Plenty of time for downgrades (and upgrades!) and backtracks and a lot is down to detail.
Certainly looks good for coldies next week IF it all verifies.
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i do not agree 2000 or 2001 snow band with thunder snow moved south even here in the southcoast we had an inch.
i cant see why any where in the uk get snow showers.
That thundersnow (28 Jan 04) came as a result of a very active cold front/line squall that came straight down from the north introducing arctic air for a day or two.
A northerly airflow almost never delivers snow down here on the coast as the air is too dry by the time it gets here.
I am expecting a few crisp cold dry days out of this before it turns less cold next week.
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The sun has been geomagmetically very quiet - the planetary A-index has not exceeded a value of 10 since the end of October.
Personally I dont at all buy the theory that sunspot activity has much (if any) of an influence on our synoptic patterns. I can point to plenty of occasions when we have had all sorts of synoptic patterns with all sorts of sunspot and geomagnetic activity levels (the winter of 1981/2 occurred at a time of high sunspot activity and magnetic storms).
Anyway, that's going a bit off-topic for this thread so I shall stop there!
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Thanks, bluearmy, thats what I thought.
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Quick question... I have read about the 'Atlantic trough being negatively tilted' recently - can someone explain what that means? Is it a reference to the axis of the trough not being north/south, but more north-west/south-east? or is it north-east/south-west?!
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Quick question... I have read about the 'Atlantic trough being negatively tilted' recently - can someone explain what that means? Is it a reference to the axis of the trough not being north/south, but more north-west/south-east? or is it north-east/south-west?!
In Depth Model Discussion, Analysis and Summaries
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Solar activity now is a little higher than it was in 1975/6........ I've never placed much store on solar activity versus weather patterns. July 1988 for example came at a time of high solar activity, as did the winters of 78/9 and 1981/2.