eddie
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Posts posted by eddie
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The massive loss of summer ice wasn't just due to a generally warmer arctic but also due to exceptional synoptics:
Arctic Sea Ice Shatters All Previous Record Lows
Now you could argue that these synoptics were caused by global warming and that we might see a repeat this year but with the Hadley Centre forecasting 2008 to be cooler than 2007, and a fairly strong La Nina ongoing, I would expect that the sea ice will have recovered to be more in-line with the 1972-2006 trend shown on Gray-Wolfs' diagram.
Time will tell of course and this summer is definitely going to be interesting viewing.
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Sorry, I think I will change my punt to
10.6C
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My guess is..
4.7C
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The polar bears will all need a new home soon. They could also help keep the wolf population under control.
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It seems almost certain that we will get below 4.5C by the end of the 24th and that means we would need the final part of December to record a CET > 7.2 to finish above average.
I'm guessing that a below average finish has to be favorite now.
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Well the 9.9C I predicted for 2007 got well and truly spanked. Will we ever see another sub 10C year again?
My thoughts are that this year will have an average first half and a very warm second half.
10.9C
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Looking at the temperatures from the 06z I would say we will probably end up somewhere around 4.9C. I can only see one day that looks like it will end up much above average.
With the models chopping and changing so much it's hard to say what will happen though. I would put the range at 4.7C - 5.4C.
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I'd be very interested to know what is the historical range for Decembers which have been at 6.1C after 15th. Anyone?
Since 1772 there have been 56 Decembers warmer than 6.1C by the 15th
3.6C is the minimum final CET recorded for Decembers that were 6.1C or warmer after the 15th.
6.8C is the maximum final CET recorded for Decembers that were 6.1C or cooler after the 15th.
Since 1900, of the 27 Decembers that were warmer that 6.1C by the 15th, 2 finished below 5.1C.
Since 1772, of the 56 Decembers that were warmer that 6.1C by the 15th, 10 finished below 5.1C.
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Well it's almost certainly not going to be the second warmest year as far as the Hadley CET is concerned. December would need to come in at 6.7C for that to occur. Somewhere between 10th and 5th warmest is most likely. I'm not sure about the UK as a whole though.
Does anyone have a link to the UK-wide equivalent of the CET?
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When I die I want them to record the cause of my death as 'death by laser' so future historians will think I had an interesting life.
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Finishing below the 71-00 average is certainly looking achievable at this point. Close to the 61-90 average is also within reach.
Below 4C would require the 12th-31st to return a CET value not seen since 1995 (and 1981 before that and 1962 before that).
I still think getting below 4.7C is a very tall order but I guess you should never say never with weather.
Can anyone remember icicles? I seem to remeber there were always huge icicles hanging from roofs when I was a kid.
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No I agree, but I think you're missing my point as is SF. It's that according to your graphs this will already be completely unprecedented by the 20th and by an enormous margin (nearly 2C) - it's going to be massively off your scale. So I'm not talking about whether or not 21st to 31st is or isn't cold, I'm merely pointing out that over the next 10 days this month will have completely torn up all arguments relying on precedence . They are little pieces blown out of the window.
Yes, which rather goes to show how it entirely depends on what marker you use.
We're going to be something around 4.5C by 20th (even give or take 0.5C doesn't alter the extent of this). I'd be really really interested to know what the mean outcome is from that point to the end, plus the median figure and finally the range.
Well as always, time will tell. I personally don't think it will be anywhere near cold enough to get down to 4.5C by the 20th. I would be suprised if it goes below 5.5C.
Incidentally, for a month that falls between 4C and 5C by the 20th:
Average 4.2C, Min 2.2C, Max 5.7C Median 4.2C
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Eddie, good chart. How's about reverse engineering as well. Of the months that did finish 4.7 or below, where were they on the 10th. The fact that it might not have happened before doesn't rule it out absolutely of course, but it would, in the even larger teapot, make any such occurrence this time all the more notable.
There are 133 Decembers in since 1772 that finished below 4.7C and I can't be bothered to add them all to a chart
. To be fair to La Nina (I didn't know this was WiB?) the period of the the 1st-10th 1794 was a fraction below 8C and that ended up at 3.7C
1794/95 really was a freak winter though. Januay 1795 was -3.1C and Feb was 0.8C. I will declare AGW is over if we get a repeat of that.
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Before SF leaps in to your defence, can I just point something out Eddie? The current projections look like producing a CET at 4.5C by close of play on 20th, give or take (might well be lower than that). It would be worth your while popping that into the chart you have there and you'll see that there's simply nothing like it, and therefore nothing with which to compare. There will never have been such a dramatic turnaround between the first 10 days and the second 10 days. So then re-run it from 4.5C after 20th and see where it may land us. You'll see the point I'm making?
I've knocked it up using dots here:
Yes, I understand what you are saying, but even if we get to 4.5C by the 20th that doesn't guarentee a sub 4.7c finish.
The period from the 21st to the 31st would also have to be below 5.1C. The entire period from the 11th to the 31st would have to be below 3.1C. /Edit : got that bit about 1993 wrong.
I'm not saying it won't happen, I just think it unlikely.
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We have never got a final CET figure below 4.7C from a rolling mean >= 8C by the 10th. I would suggest that a final CET much below average is looking unlikely at this point.
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further to the above check this out!!!!!
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/fnl/sfc...er_01b.fnl.html
however reports of -41 degrees in parts of Canada and Russia...
slightly to one side... i am official a little worried.. this is based on one program on last night... it mentioned permafrost and the methane produced at the bottom of the lakes in Siberia... they lit the gas that was frozen and they had fire coming from the ice.. it was amazing. however it really hit home as one of the biggest threats to gloal warming.. Methane apparently is 26 times as bad as CO2!! if there was ever a case to fill the bottom of the lakes with concrete then this is it.. they would also need to stop the permafrost falling into the lakes......
That chart really is amazing! Vast areas of the arctic over 20C warmer than they should be at this time of year.
It's interesting that the largest temperature anomaly is in the area to the NW of alaska where there is still a big hole in the sea ice.
What happens next summer when the sea ice starts to melt again is going to be both facinating and frightening.
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ANNOUNCEMENT
Item 3 would require all entrants to date to offer an additional mid way punt, should they want to choose one differing from their final value. The running mean for the past Decembers has been posted by Yours Truly a couple of pages back, make of it what you will.
So, our proposal is to commence with no.1 and no.2 anyway; what we need is a quick vox-pop re number 3. Ayes to the right; nos to the left.
Item 3 sounds like a pain for whoever has to work it all out but since that won't be me I will vote yes.
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I would like to revise my punt down to 6.4C
Thanks.
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Are we talking about the highest CET daily maximum or just the highest temperature recorded anywhere in the mainland UK?
If the former then I will go for 14.9C, if the latter then 17.0C
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The second half of 2006 and first half of 2007 were both the warmest ever recorded and they both smashed the previous records by a margin not seen before.
Second half of 2006 was 0.85C warmer than the record set in 1959.
First half of 2007 was 0.28C warmer than the record set in 1846.
To put some perspective on that, the last time the record fell:
First half of 1846 was 0.04C warmer than the record set in 1822
Second half of 1959 was 0.09C warmer than the record set in 1949
I think it would be actually be quite frightening if we didn't see a marked cooling from those figures as they were, even in the context of AGW, exceptional.
In my opinion SF is right here. We are just seeing a return to the ever increasing mean rather than a proper cooldown.
A sub 10C cet year would perhaps be a good signal of a real cool down.
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Were the world to fall foul to one or other of the expected 'glitches' (rapid climate change/pandemic) then the folk who have meditated on their actions through these times will be much better equipped (and probably prepared) to survive. Conversely the 'live for today,bugger tomorrow and what ifs' brigade would face both the mental problems of having wasted any chance of preparing (by being 'wrong' and not providing basic 'insurance' in case they are) and the physical issues of not having a clue of where and how to provide for their immediate needs.
I am actually worried enough about a HN51 that I keep a stock of antiviral drugs and antibiotics at home. They might or might not save my family in the event of a pandemic but at least I would have tried and they actually cost much less than my car insurance does for a year.
Having said that, I don't think you can really prepare for anything much worse than a flu pandemic. In the event of anything worse, such as a supervolcano or meteorite impact, then it's going to come down to luck and perhaps how fit you are.
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My word if this happens I will post pictures of me taken on my stag do 2 years ago :blink:
Now I have said that it is bound to happen
Well I have no hope of winning the annual CET competition and I just thought it would be funny if we got a massive record month and Craig Evans still lost.
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The warmest December on record 8.8C C.E.T
I'm going for 9.2C.
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The 1971-2000 December average is 5.1C.
The 1961-1990 December average is 4.7C.
Distribution over whole CET series
CET>=-2.0C and < -1.5C occurrences=0
CET>=-1.5C and < -1.0C occurrences=0
CET>=-1.0C and < -0.5C occurrences=1
CET>=-0.5C and < 0.0C occurrences=5
CET>=0.0C and < 0.5C occurrences=3
CET>=0.5C and < 1.0C occurrences=6
CET>=1.0C and < 1.5C occurrences=9
CET>=1.5C and < 2.0C occurrences=17
CET>=2.0C and < 2.5C occurrences=16
CET>=2.5C and < 3.0C occurrences=22
CET>=3.0C and < 3.5C occurrences=34
CET>=3.5C and < 4.0C occurrences=49
CET>=4.0C and < 4.5C occurrences=38
CET>=4.5C and < 5.0C occurrences=40
CET>=5.0C and < 5.5C occurrences=30
CET>=5.5C and < 6.0C occurrences=28
CET>=6.0C and < 6.5C occurrences=22
CET>=6.5C and < 7.0C occurrences=15
CET>=7.0C and < 7.5C occurrences=7
CET>=7.5C and < 8.0C occurrences=4
CET>=8.0C and < 8.5C occurrences=2
CET>=8.5C and < 9.0C occurrences=0
Graph
CET>=-2.0C and < -1.5C
CET>=-1.5C and < -1.0C
CET>=-1.0C and < -0.5C x
CET>=-0.5C and < 0.0C xxxxx
CET>=0.0C and < 0.5C xxx
CET>=0.5C and < 1.0C xxxxxx
CET>=1.0C and < 1.5C xxxxxxxxx
CET>=1.5C and < 2.0C xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
CET>=2.0C and < 2.5C xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
CET>=2.5C and < 3.0C xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
CET>=3.0C and < 3.5C xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
CET>=3.5C and < 4.0C xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
CET>=4.0C and < 4.5C xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
CET>=4.5C and < 5.0C xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
CET>=5.0C and < 5.5C xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
CET>=5.5C and < 6.0C xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
CET>=6.0C and < 6.5C xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
CET>=6.5C and < 7.0C xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
CET>=7.0C and < 7.5C xxxxxxx
CET>=7.5C and < 8.0C xxxx
CET>=8.0C and < 8.5C xx
CET>=8.5C and < 9.0C
Distribution over the last 30 years
CET>=-2.0C and < -1.5C
CET>=-1.5C and < -1.0C
CET>=-1.0C and < -0.5C
CET>=-0.5C and < 0.0C
CET>=0.0C and < 0.5C x
CET>=0.5C and < 1.0C
CET>=1.0C and < 1.5C
CET>=1.5C and < 2.0C
CET>=2.0C and < 2.5C x
CET>=2.5C and < 3.0C x
CET>=3.0C and < 3.5C
CET>=3.5C and < 4.0C xxx
CET>=4.0C and < 4.5C xxx
CET>=4.5C and < 5.0C xxx
CET>=5.0C and < 5.5C xxx
CET>=5.5C and < 6.0C xxxxxxxxx
CET>=6.0C and < 6.5C xxxx
CET>=6.5C and < 7.0C x
CET>=7.0C and < 7.5C
CET>=7.5C and < 8.0C x
CET>=8.0C and < 8.5C
CET>=8.5C and < 9.0C
. 
The Coldest Day of Winter
in Historic Weather
Posted · Edited by eddie
Very interesting post chionomaniac.
Using the CET records from the Hadley Centre:
/edit because I got it wrong first time...
If you take the average temperature for each day since 1772 then the coldest day is January 12th at 3.0C.
The coldest day in the period 1971-2000 is actually February 15th, also at 3.0C.