eddie
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Posts posted by eddie
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Yep - I can see that now Eddie. My choice of doing A level Pure Maths & Mechanics as opposed to Pure Maths & Statistics is a choice I have often rued~!
So it's only the 56th coldest?
It will end up somewhere around that mark depending upon where October lands. That's since 1900 too. It will rank lower over the entire CET series.
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:lol:
Go on - explain Eddie. I'm going to learn something about my flawed logic here!!
You are forgetting about the years prior 1993 that, although warmer than 1993, were colder than the current Jul-Oct period.
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Sixth coolest July - October period for 107 years? :lol: Amazing statistic! I had no idea that was the case.
Although we are heading for the coolest July-October period since 1993 and 1993 was the 6th coolest period since 1900, that won't make it the 7th coldest such period since 1900.
It will actually be the 56th coldest Jul-Oct period since 1900 if October ends at 11C.
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Hmm yes I was perhaps being a bit optimistic/pessimistic there.
Hadley have now updated and yesterday was quite a bit colder than I expected at 7.8C. Their mean is now 11.1C
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Min temps look like they have been around the 8-9C mark last night so already a touch warmer then the 0z advertised, not that it'll make much of a difference if the truth be told!
Sunday mins are cooler on the 06z BUT Tuesday maxes are a good 3-4C warmer and more then makes up for the lower mins on Sunday.
06z giving a much warmer end to the month than previously predicted. Perhaps 11.5 is not out of the question.
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Yeah - Sunday is going to be quite a remarkable day, methinks. Anyone for a higher CET than forecast?
It was looking very warm but the 06z has Sunday evening looking cooler. Perhaps we will record mins of 9-10 and maxes around 16.
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If the 06z GFS run verifies then the warm air being drawn up from the south west on Saturday and Sunday will be what stops us from going below 11C. Minima of around 13-14C and maxima of up to 15-16C could easily add 0.3-0.4C to the CET total when compared to the 8C days we have been experiencing this week.
Temperatures look to return to average after that with the potentially odd situation where the CET maximum for Monday could be recorded at 0.01am.
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Kevin (Mr Data);
Back in the spring you wrote a list of years where the second halves of March, April and May were colder than the first half.
Logic suggests that in most years the second half of October should be colder than the first half. I do not know of the last time that October had a warmer second half than the first half, although 2004 and 2005 came very close. I would be grateful if you could post a list of years where October had a warmer second half than the first.
Hi NEB, I already posted this data earlier in the thread. Hope this helps..
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Hadley now 11.8C. Another drop of 0.2C.
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Hadley now at 12.0C, down another 0.2C since yesterday.
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We would need the period from today until the end of the month to average 7.4C to get Hadley below the 1971-00 average(10.4C) and 7.9C to get below the 1961-90 average(10.6C).
If we average 6.6C then I will win this month. Hurrah!
Based on a quick glance at the last few GFS runs and some guessing here is my take on things:
Probability of getting to 10.0C and me winning - <1%
Probability of getting below 10.4C - 10%
Probability of getting below 10.6C - 25%
I think we will probably end up around 11C.
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7's for the whole month as recently as 1992 and 1974.
Unlikely, I grant you, but to think the cooler second half couldn't tuck in a 7C would be way wide of the mark. Would be interesting to know how often something below 8C has been recorded for the final 2 weeks since 1900.
Less than 8C for the 2nd half of October has been recorded 19 times since 1900 but, and it's a big but, only 2 times in cases where the first half of the month has been warmer than 12.5C (1916 and 1920).
Since 1900 we have never got below 10.4C from a first half CET > 12.5C.
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I already believe we have caused the some of the warming we have seen and also that the earth will continue to warm as a result of our actions. Sorry if this isn't the sort of reply you were after GW but I do think this was a good idea for a thread!
Perhaps there aren't that many people that believe humans have no involvment at all in global warming? The argument seems to have moved on to the degree of warming caused by us and how much warmer it will get.
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It increases the further back you go <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_core" target="_blank">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_core</a>
Doubt it, the cores are taken at the top of ice sheets - it would be a considerable surprise if temperatures have reached above freezing at places like Vostok for any length of time.
Thanks. Always good to learn something new every day.
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Slightly off topic sorry, but does anybody know what the resolution of the Vostok ice core data is?
Also, if you had a particularly warm number of years and some of the ice melted would that mean that you could loose a chunk of 'history' since only years in which ice accumulates show in the record?
I am sure the scientists have taken account of this I would just be interested to know how and if this has happened.
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A few years ago DTP turned even the most colour blind people into would be publishers. The slow march of Excel, whilst it makes the processing of data easier, does not assist in the determination of sensible analysis.
Could you please clarify what you mean by this please?
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Very few of the instances have occurred in the last ten years, but the last ten years is very much the time we inhabit.
Yes the last ten years is very much the time we inhabitand yes we are on an upward trend but you of all people shouldn't need reminding that the 10 year mean is not always going to go upwards, even with AGW there are still going to be peaks and troughs due the underlying variability of our climate.
For example, look at the 10 rolling mean for July. It just dropped 0.2C. The August one just dropped 0.3C! Does this mean that next year your prediction for August will be lower than this year?
I will agree that my data was rather cherry picked to suit my point but I think yours could be too.
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Not record breaking, but it would require a run which would be cold, and in the context of the period of cold we've already had over summer almost unprecedented in the past twenty years. Everything needs to be viewed in the context of the climate we now have, not that which occurred before Queen Victoria came to the throne I'm afraid.
In order to get below 10.5C the 6 month anomaly from August to December, with respect to the 1971-00 baseline, would need to be below 0.33C
Here are the 6 month periods in the last 20 years which satisfy this requirement:
I can't see anything unprecedented being required.
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I still don't think we should write of a final CET below 10.5C just yet. It certainly wouldn't require any kind of record breaking cold.
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I'd be very interested to know if and when second halves of October have ever been warmer than first halves. It must be exceptionally rare, if it has happened.
I counted 32 instances since 1772 where the first half of October was colder than the second half and 7 instances where the first half was equal to the second half. Using those stats you would expect 14 out of every 100 Octobers to have a warmer 2nd Half. Fairly unusual but I wouldn't go so far to say exceptionally rare.
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18z GFS looking quite warm for October. I wouldn't be suprised if we are 1.5C above average by the 15th if this run come off.
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The complainant was a lorry driver from Dover. Not a daft American.
Doh, I should probably stop posting on Net Weather when I have flu. I think I need some more drugs..
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You have to remeber that in some public schools in America they don't even want to teach the theory of evolution, prefering to say that man was created directly by God and dinosaur bones were put their just to test us. It's hardly suprising that somebody in America objected to Al Gore's film. Damn those scientists and their pesky evidence.
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Do we use Manley on this CET because its colder or more accurate? - truthfully.
I thought it was because Hadley didn't used to update daily?
So, just why do you like it cold/hot/wet/dry/foggy?
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
A howling Autumn gale would be my favorite type of weather. That feeling of the wind and rain on my face just makes me feel alive. You can probably guess that I am finding the weather a bit dull at the moment.
I was lucky enough to see some pretty great winters during the 80s (living 1100 feet above sea level in the Pennines helped) and I would love to see that much snow again but perhaps just a two week period over Christmas when I don't have to get to work. Something like 1947 or 1963 would be interesting but I bet the novelty would soon wear off when the supermarkets started to run out of food.
I also don't like anything too hot. If you could take the weather from April 2007 and add 2C to the CET then that would be my perfect summer.