eddie
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Hadley have updated and they have yesterday at 9.5C which means the CET so far is 14.5C.
Hadley have updated and they have yesterday at 9.5C which means the Hadley CET so far is 14.5C.
-fixed for the pedants.
I am aware we use Manley for the competition.
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Hadley have updated and they have yesterday at 9.5C which means the CET so far is 14.5C.
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On which point, we're in with an outside chance I think of the September min record going (in Scotland). Probably won't but something around -4C a real possibility there.
BBC News 24 forecast just said there was a chance of records being broken in Northern Ireland but just said it would be very cold in Scotland.
Some 1C minima possible in parts of the CET zone too.
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10.0C for me please.
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It's normal! That wasn't the question.
Gray-Wolf was questioning whether existing models of sea ice melt are an accurate representation of the reality.
Which part of the Antarctic coast is that photo from, Gray-Wolf?
Surely that is the most important question?
If that picture is a good representation of what happens every year around every part of the coast and it doesn't match what the models predict then you could use it to question the accuracy of the models. If that picuture is not a good representation of the norm then you can't use it to draw any conclusions about the models.
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My outrun off the 6z is 13.9C
My coldest day is the 26th with 8C
Interestingly the 6z is slightly above the ensemble mean so slightly colder is possible.
Even 8.0C would be in the top 2% of coldest September days and something we haven't had since 1988. I think I might be starting to get excited about this winter already.
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Old Beeb forecast for Thursday if it's right would give us an average of 7c for the 24 hour period. Pretty cold.
7.0C would be the 27th coldest September day since 1772 (Out of 7072!) and the coldest September day since 1974. That would be quite remarkable.
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The other more curious one is that Hadley obs has actually fallen from 14.9C to 14.8C in the last 24 hours. I've got to be honest in that I cannot see how that's happened in this mild filling to the cold sandwich. Odd. http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
Oh well, at least it means Hadley and Manley are now virtually identical.
To the 21st Hadley was at 14.87 (rounded up to 14.9). They have yesterday's average temperature at 14.1C which dropped us down to 14.83 (rounded down to 14.8 ).
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Here's an image from this A.M. of the area of coast between 60 and 90 East showing the coast out to the open ocean.
Now I don't know what was meant by Mr Gubine's 'slow melt' from the coast out nor his 'Swiss cheese' style melt of the pack when I view this.
To me it looks far faster than 'Slow' and far more complete than 'Swiss cheese'. What do you make of it?
It's hard to say if this is normal or not without looking at the same image from previous years.
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5 years out of the CET series since 1772 have been warmer than 14.6C by the 22nd and finshed below average including 1987 which was 14.8C by the 22nd and finished at 13.6C.
I personally think we will finish just a touch above 14C although I would dearly love to see another below average month.
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It would certainly take something special to get us above 11C now. Still possible that we could beat 2006 but even that is starting to look unlikely.
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Some more stats for WiB. If we do get to 14.5C by the 20th that would increase the chance of returning a below average month compared to the analysis based on being 15.2C by the 15th.
I really can't see us reaching 14.5C by the 20th though.
Year/ @20th/ Final Cet
1932/ 14.5/ 12.9
1899/ 14.8/ 13.2
1872/ 14.9/ 13.2
1844/ 14.8/ 13.3
1914/ 14.8/ 13.3
1943/ 14.8/ 13.3
1979/ 14.6/ 13.5
1987/ 14.6/ 13.6
1942/ 14.9/ 13.6
1867/ 14.6/ 13.6
1785/ 15.1/ 13.6
1811/ 14.9/ 13.7
1824/ 15.4/ 13.7
1984/ 14.6/ 13.7
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Interestingly enough, if you look at second half September CETs in isolation, anything colder than the 98th coldest second half September CET since 1772 would take us below 13.7C. (I hope that makes sense. It did in my head!)
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No but Stu he said this month was, like 38 others, 15.5C or above at the 15th. It isn't. It was at 15.2C. So it doesn't verify.
As I say, I'd love to know how many months have been below from 15.2C or above at the midpoint.
Scroll up!
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Sorry to correct you but this is not the 39th ... this Sept is 15.2C after the 15th (Manley). http://www.climate-uk.com/
What's the lowest the CET has got to after a 15.2C at the midpoint?
Except the fact wasn't right. It's 15.2C at midpoint not greater than 15.5C
I was just looking at the Hadley figure which is currently 15.5C.
If you assume we are at 15.2C then that means this September is the 55th to reach 15.2C or above by the 15th.
Here are the Septembers that ended up at 13.7C or below after reaching 15.2C by the 15th..
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1772 is the first year in the CET series that daily averages are available.
Since 1772 there have been 38 Septembers that had a CET > 15.5C by the 15th (well 39 now!). Of those 38, only 5 recorded a final CET of 13.7C or below by the end of the month.
I would be very suprised if we end up below average now but it's certainly not impossible.
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Cryosphere Today now reports that the sea ice in the southern hemisphere has broken the previous record maximum by 1.4% at 16.26 m sq km. So we may need to change the title of this thread, as we approach the equinox.
I find it truly amazing that we have one hemisphere recording the lowest sea ice extent ever recorded and the other recording the maximum! What on earth is going on!? I wonder if there is something strange happening with ocean currents?
Somebody in the 'I need to scream' thead linked a blog where I found this link which talks about a cyclical transfer of heat between the two hemispheres.
Atlantic Ocean heat piracy and the bipolar climate see-saw...
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I find the last two comments rather bizarre based on the model output that is available.
Even if I ramp it up a couple of degrees from what I think it's going to come in at I come up with these daily average (max/min combined) for the CET zone
Fri - 15.5C - No change
Sat - 12C - Drop of 0.2C or 0.3C
Sun 15.5C - No change
Mon - 12.5C - Drop of 0.2C
Tues - 9.0C - Drop of 0.3C or 0.4C
Weds - 10.5C - Drop or 0.2C
After that is very much FI and or course the polar airmass for Mon-Wed could still downgrade, however a drop near to 1C from here in a weeks time looks the most likely outcome.
I would pretty much agree with this. Looking at the models I can't see any day in the next week that is going to come in much above the current CET figure and Saturday and Tuesday could make quite a dent with some low minima.
I think it's unlikely that my 13.3C guess is going to be realised after the warm start to the month but I still don't think sub 14C is out of the question.
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You don't by any chance have the ability to re-load that with last September (2006) in do you? Would make interesting viewing to see the record September thrown into the equation.
Don't worry if not!
There you go...
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September 1919 is the September that has seen the most dramatic contrast between the first and second halves. The first week of September 1919 had 30C+ heat in Northants.
Yet there was SNOW in the third week at low levels in Northern England just before autumn equinox on the morning of the 20th September 1919.
http://www.personal.dundee.ac.uk/~taharley..._in_septemb.htm
This graphs shows how the September CET is looking according to Hadley and I have thrown in 1919 for good measure...
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I just wrote this for my blog, and it occurred to me that somebody on NW might find it useful. It's also an important question and I hope will stimulate some response:
Any thoughts?
:)P
I am guessing a Ferrari and a private jet would also get me a lot of attention from the opposite sex but since I
can't afford either of those I guess some energy saving lightbulbs and a recyling bin is the second best option
Joking aside, I do think your method of 'selling' a greener lifestyle has some merit. Tackling climate change is currently presented as series of sacrifices that we all need to make: Drive less, fly less, consume less, turn the heating down, use less water etc. It's no wonder that a lot of the public are turned off by this.
The whole climate change thing needs to be presented as an oportunity to make peoples' lives better. It needs to be something that people want to be part of. Exciting new green technology, cleaner cities, cleaner air, houses that cost virtually nothing to run, saving money etc.
People also hate to be told that the way they conduct their life is bad. You probably can't pick a better way of stopping somebody listening to you than trying to make them feel guilty for driving a big 4x4 or having a foreign holiday. I'm not sure what the solution to this particular problem is though.
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I have been looking back at the CET record for Septembers which follow a below average July and August (71-00 average). It seems only around one third of Septembers that follow a below average July and August are above average.
On that basis I am going for 13.3C
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At this stage, and taking the GFS into consideration, I would estimate there is a 50% chance for the CET to end up below the 71-00 average(16.2C) and 30% chance for it to end up below the 61-90 average(15.8C).
I reckon my 16.4C guess won't be so far off.
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I just tried to read the linked papers and it seems I would have to join the AGU in order to see them (i.e. pay them money :huh: ). Is that web site the only place those papers can be read?
September CET!
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
At 8.4C, Yesterday was the coldest September day since Sep 30th 1988.