Dangerous55019
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Posts posted by Dangerous55019
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Morning everyone.
Thought I'd start off this Monday morning with a quick look at the CFS v2 for the next four weeks...
Week 1: 24th to the 30th April - High pressure centered to our north west, would probably allow winds to come in from a more northerly/north easterly direction, which is more of less what the shorter range models are showing. But more fine and dry weather with variable amounts of cloud floating about.
Week 2: 1st to the 7th May - Looks like we might actually have some weather! The high pressure appears to be scuttling back towards Greenland and Canada, and we've got low pressure over to our north east! Probably be quite cool and showery... Certainly doesn't look to be a complete washout.
Week 3: 8th to the 14th May - High pressure now back and over to our north and east. Low pressure to our south west. Probably would be fine, dry and sunny for most of us, but it wouldn't take a lot for the low pressure to possibly give us something more... Well, thundery. But hey its three weeks away, so it probably won't happen.
Week 4: 15th to the 21st May - A ridge of high pressure stretching out into the Atlantic looks like it could probably bring more fine dry and sunny weather!
So there you go! Apart from week 2, and hints of something in week 3, I'd say that the fine and settled weather is going to carry on!
Will it, or won't it? Only time will tell, and the weather will do, whatever the weather will do.
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And why have I just quoted myself in a reply to someone else?
One day I'll learn how to use this forum! Lol
And swerving swiftly back on topic... In just two months time it'll be the summer solstice!
I just hope my reverse SAD holds out (holds off... You know what I mean) ... As the past couple of years I've had it really quite bad during the late spring and early summer. -
Good afternoon @Sentinel
Because of your location on the planet, during the summer months it never goes completely dark. If you look towards the north on a summers evening, you'll see that the sky doesn't go completely dark, there is always like a dim blue glow towards the north horizon - the lingering twilight. The further north you are, the brighter the sky is at midnight. Basically its because we're close to the land of the midnight sun.Just now, Dangerous55019 said:Good afternoon @Sentinel
Because of our location on the planet, during the summer months it never goes completely dark. If you look towards the north on a summers evening, you'll see that the sky doesn't go completely dark, there is always like a dim blue glow towards the north horizon - the lingering twilight. The further north you are, the brighter the sky is at midnight. Basically its because we're close to the land of the midnight sun.-
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Thank you @Dorsetbredand @richie3846for your kind comments.
And swerving swiftly back on topic... Slight changes on the CFS 4 week update with the 500 mb anomaly charts today...
Week 1: 20th to the 26th April - High pressure to our north, and low pressure to our south and centered over Spain suggests to me an easterly air flow. Probably quite dry through.
Week 2: 27th April to the 3rd May - High pressure still to our north and over Scotland, but the low pressure area over Spain appears to have dissipated. Possibly, looking at the angle of the high pressure, more of a south easterly air flow than an easterly... To me that's still saying a dry outlook.
Week 3: 4th to the 10th May - All change! Low pressure to our north, and high pressure to our south and over central Europe! I would say that this is bringing us a much more south westerly airflow, and therefore much more moist as well! ... Although I'm not saying its going to be a total washout.
Week 4: 11th to the 17th May - The low pressure to our north is now over Iceland, and there is a ridge of high pressure moving up from our south (main land Europe) so again I'm going to say that the outlook looks really quite dry!
So again no real washout showing from the CFS. Will it pan out like this? Only time will tell.
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I've just realised that today marks the start of the lingering twilight season for another year here in the British Isles! In that far northern outpost of Scotland called Saxa Vord they now have astronomical twilight (that blue glow in the sky) until the 25th of August!
... And obviously it gets much lighter as the summer goes on for them.But the majority of us will have to wait until next month before we enter the world of the lingering twilight.
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Hello everyone
Soooooo being as things are pretty quite on here, I thought I'd have a look at what the CFS 4 week update is showing with the 500 mb anomaly charts...
Week 1: 19th to the 25th of April - High pressure to our north, low pressure to our south... To me that just says easterly winds. Dry but potentially slightly cooler than average.
Week 2: 26th April to the 2nd May - High pressure more to our north west, low pressure somewhere in the middle of the Atlantic, and a high pressure area over central/eastern Europe ... To me that is saying that we could well be under the influence of a north easterly airflow... It has the potential to be chilly... But hey, we're now heading into May.
Week 3: 3rd May to the 9th May - Looks like we're going to be under a shallow Atlantic trough... Not a total washout, but it should be a but wetter than it has been, and it should feel milder as well with the air coming in from the south west.
Week 4: 10th to the 16th May - Not a lot to go on really! Northern blocking to our north and over the top of the pole. Low pressure out in the Atlantic, low pressure over the Med, and what looks to be the Azores high somewhere off the coast of Portugal!
So to sum it up, certainly no signs of summer showing, but certainly not a washout either.
So that's my take for what it worth, sorry if its not what people what to hear, but I can only say what the charts are showing.-
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Hello everyone
Being as I'm starting to get back into the swing of things after my winter hibernation, and the storm season about to start for another year, I thought I'd have a look at the CFS 500mb, 4 weekly anomalies to see if they can help shed any light on what's going to happen in the coming weeks...
Week 1: 14th to the 20th April - High pressure seems to be centered just to the north and east of us here in the UK, so that'll probably draw up a slight south/south westerly air flow.
Week 2: 21st to the 27th April - The high pressure has moved up to our north, and it looks like we've got low pressure moving in from our south west. Although not cold, it does suggest to me a bit more of an unsettled outlook for us.
Week 3: 28th April to the 4 of May - Low pressure more or less over the UK... I doubt it'll be cold, but it does suggest to be slightly damp at the very least.
Week 4: 5th to the 11th of May - High pressure over to our east, low pressure over to our west! Dare I say it? But to me this looks potentially thundery!!
But before I get too excited, this is 4 weeks away, and this is the CFS, so it could all be looking very different by this time tomorrow.
So there you go! Hopefully this little ramble could help some folks out, but as always with the CFS, please take it with a gritter load of salt.-
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On 08/04/2022 at 14:24, damianslaw said:
Noticing the lengthening light in the evenings now. Yesterday was a clear sky evening and it was still light at 8.30pm.
Morning @damianslaw
I can confirm (thanks to the dog wanting out last night) that there is still a (very)dark royal blue light in the sky at 21:50!-
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On 08/04/2022 at 11:15, Wynn D Woo said:
Love having the daylight back at the evening end of the day, so much better for getting out and about after work.
Just a pity we cant go to double British Summer Time so its not light at ridiculous O'clock in the morning in summer.
Morning @Wynn D Woo
Whilst I hold my hands up and say that I'm certainly not a fan of double BST, lets just be grateful that we don't stay with GMT all year round! LolThe first reference to changing the clocks was in a lighthearted letter from an American called Benjamin Franklin to the ‘Journal De Paris’ in 1784. He suggested that church bells and cannons should be used every morning to encourage people to get out of bed earlier and make the most of the extra daylight, saving energy and increasing productivity!
This idea was then set aside for the next hundred years or so, and then in 1895 when New Zealand entomologist George Vernon Hudson proposed that clocks be put forward two hours in the summer! But once again, it came to nothing.
It was then in 1905, when a British builder, William Willet put forward a similar suggestion, that the idea of changing the clocks in the summer started to gain traction. His vision was that putting the clocks forward in spring would give people more time for evening leisure activities... And so the Daylight Saving Bill was proposed in 1908, stipulating that clocks should be changed by one hour twice a year! This bill despite having supporters such as Winston Churchill, and Sir Arthur Conan Doyle was defeated in the house of commons by just one vote!
Ultimately it was a result of the Great War (World War 1) that led to Daylight Saving being introduced in 1916, after both Germany and Austria both implemented a similar scheme. So in order not to give any advantage to the then enemy, and as a response to public safety and energy concerns, Parliament finally relented and introduced Daylight Savings as an Emergency Measure.
These changes were confirmed as an official and permanent measure in 1925 with the passing of the Summer Time Act in Britain.-
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Evening everyone.
I have to be honest and say that I wasn’t expecting anything for my neck of the woods today… But it did have a ‘plumey feel’ to it.
Plus we’ve currently got a superb display of Mammatus clouds here at the moment.
Anyway… Don’t loose hope folks, as although we’re feeling storm starved after the winter, the storm season is still young.
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Afternoon everyone.
I have to say that today is the first time this year that I’ve seen proper crisp and sharp convection getting going. ?
I know it’s really unlikely to go bang, but still nice to see. ?
Let’s hope that the 2022 storm season is a good and convective one for us all. ???
This is currently my view looking north over the Wirral towards Liverpool/Warrington area.
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It’s just gone 15:33, and the spring equinox has just occurred!
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Morning everyone.
Thought of the day… But this time next week, won’t be this time next week!
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Morning everyone
Yes its time once again for me to emerge from my winter hibernation, and I have to say that although spring is now allegedly springing, its been a long time since I've felt cold like that out there!!
What will the rest of spring hold? Well, only the gods know that!
But IF this pattern persists, then it will get warmer as the season progresses.
If I get chance later I'll have a look at some of the long range models (Cansips, CFS etc) and see what's being forecast. -
Evening everyone, I can confirm thunder and lightning here in Ellesmere Port! ⛈
And horizontal hailstones as well!
I know as I’m currently out in it!
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On 01/12/2021 at 15:00, Bradley in Kent said:
Good afternoon all,
The onset of darkness is slowing and from next week will almost come to a stop. Not much changes in December.
Good afternoon @Bradley in Kent
The onset of the darkness (at the evening end of the day) stops next Friday - 10th of December, and the mornings stop on the 28th of December.
Yep, the pendulum is reaching the end of its stroke again.
I have to say that it does seem to have gone very quick this year! It only seems like a month or so ago I was commenting on the summer solstice!
Is someone messing around with time?
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Afternoon everyone.
Haven't been on here for a while... Real life and all that... But I have been outside for a lot of that time and enjoying the season that was autumn 2021.
T'was a bit of a funny ole autumn... Weather wise I couldn't complain, just a bit colourless... Until about the middle of November when all of a sudden there was an explosion of the autumn colours... And then it was all over.
There are still some of the oak trees with leaves on, but they are looking rather tattered and torn after Storm Arwen.
Ahh well... Until next year when I start looking for 'signs of autumn' again... Farewell autumn... It was emotional.-
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Morning everyone
I wasn’t expecting to be posting in this thread today! But the U.K. Meto have just posted a yellow thunderstorm warning from 04:00 till midday tomorrow! ?⛈
Personally I think we might see something within the highlighted area… But I won’t hold my breath.
Either way… Still nice to see, especially in October! ?⛈
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Morning everyone
Sorry I’m a day late with this, only I was just too busy to post anything yesterday.
But for the record, what a beautiful misty autumn morning yesterday was.
Hopefully we’ll get quite a few more of these.
I wonder when we’ll get our first proper fog day? It’s so atmospheric. ??
Anyway… Here’s a quick photo that I managed to snap whilst out walking the dog.
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On 03/09/2021 at 12:21, simshady said:
Top three
December on the run up to Christmas especially if it's cold and frosty.
October, looking forward to longer, darker nights and Halloween
November, Bonfire night and the atmosphere of a cold night
Worst
May, too warm and light.
June, too warm and light.
July, too warm and light.
@simshady you're a man after me own heart. But for me, December is only ruined by Christmas. Lol #BahHumbug
Top favorite 3 for me...
1. August: I just love the transition from summer to autumn, plus its the start of the harvest season, and after a few months of the lingering twilight, true darkness has finally returned.
2. September: Its autumn! Need I say anymore? Plus the horrible glary overhead sun of the summer is now a distant fading memory, and the light is much more pleasant.
3. October: Autumn in full swing, leaves fully on the turn, after seeing gentle autumnal mists throughout August and September, the chance of our first proper fog day, plus our first proper autumn storm, and I've always found the time around the clock change Halloween particularly magical.
Top worst 3 for me...As someone who is a reverse S.A.D. sufferer
1. April: Its about this time that I know summer is lurking... (Plus I sadly lost my Dad in April last year)... The final full month of true (but rapidly diminishing) darkness... So yeah... Not a fan of April.
2. May: Too light and warm... Only redeeming feature being the chance of a Spanish plume with thundery breakdown.
3. June: The sun is directly overhead, and I just want to crawl in cave until it all over! The only redeeming features being the summer solstice, with the fact that we start loosing daylight again on our run into autumn, and the risk of thunderstorms. -
Morning everyone.
Well at the start of these autumn threads back in July time, I nearly always say that, “I would like to see a final burst of summer in September, but with misty/foggy evenings and mornings, just to remind everyone that it’s autumn”… So far September 2021 has certainly lived up to that!
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Plus we actually had a thundery breakdown… Which was more than we actually managed back in July with that last heatwave! (From an IMBY perspective obviously).
Last night whilst out walking the dog was beautifully foggy as a result of the storms.
This morning is beautifully misty as well.
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Constant rumbling of distant thunder here now from that storm between Chester and Wrexham. ???
But the rain we’ve had here has been incredible!! ???
Memo to self: need to buy a new pair of wellies!
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Today is providing to be a day of extremely heavy thundery downpours, with the odd distant rumble of thunder thrown in. ?⛈?
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After last night’s little storm there is a lot of haze and crud about in the air… But in a small break I can see things starting to brew up nicely to my South West/West. ?
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Model Output Discussion - Early Summer and Beyond
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Morning everyone.
Well five days have passed sine I last had a look at the CFS v2 4 weekly anomaly charts... So here we go...
I'll keep it short, and sweet...
All 4 weeks are pretty much showing the same thing! So from the 28th April to the 25th May, the is high pressure just sitting more or less over us here in the UK! There are obviously some slight shifts in the location of the high, which will vary the temperature, fair weather cloud etc... But other than that, there's not a lot else I can say really.