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Dangerous55019

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    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Hello everyone. 👋🏻🥵

    Well I’ve just had to pop the dog out on the lawn and I’ve just seen these starting to bubble up over the Clwydian Range! 
    Plus unlike yesterday, the sky here is now a milky blue due to cirrus cloud.

    Please let this be the start of the thundery breakdown. 🌩⛈🙏🏻🙏🏻🙏🏻
     

    As ever, good luck to everyone with this over the next few days. 🌩⛈🤞🏻👍🏻
     

    But whatever the outcome, I think we’ll all be glad if we just see some rain. 🌧

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    • Like 12

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Hello everyone. 🙂

    Its been about a week since I last did one of these, so here's a look at the CFS v2 for the next four weeks.

    Week 1 - 12th to the 18th August: High pressure over Scandinavia and parts of central Europe is extending its influence over us here the UK. It also appears to be joining up with a ridge from the Azores high! So yet more of the current heatwave conditions that we are experiencing at the moment. But it you look closely, you can see the low pressure brewing off the coast of Portugal, and towards the Bay of Biscay. Hopefully this will give us the breakdown of this current weather pattern and bring us all some much needed rain.

    Week 2 - 19th to the 25th August: All change! The high pressure that has influenced our weather for the past week slips south wards into main land Europe and towards the Mediterranean. Low pressure centered between Iceland and the north of Scotland would put us in a much more westerly driven air flow. At a guess I would say showers and longer spells of rain... But I'm certainly not seeing a total washout.

    Week 3 - 26th August to the 1st September: High pressure across main land Europe and towards Scandinavia, and then up towards Greenland, Iceland and the North Pole! Meanwhile over us in the UK, there is nothing really showing, but I'm gonna hazard a guess that there could well be a shallow trough of low(er) pressure over us. It could be nothing too wet, or it could a low(er) pressure area that gets stuck over us bringing us some more much needed rain? A bit hard to tell really... And what's more only time will tell! 

    Week 4 - 2nd to the 8th September: The high pressure has fully scuttled up towards the North Pole and towards the eastern sea board of the USA, Plus a spot of high pressure off the North western tip of Africa! Neither will do anything for us! But we have got a trough of low pressure over us here in the UK, and its extending out towards Scandinavia. Hopefully bringing us some much needed rain for the start of autumn.


    So there you go! Make of that what you will! Hopefully this will help others in trying to decipher what some of the shorter range models are trying to forecast. 🙂

    wk1.wk2_20220811.z500.png

    wk3.wk4_20220811.z500.png

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 3

    The heat haters club 2022

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Morning o’fellow heat haters. 🥵👋🏻
     

    Hopefully a glimmer of hope on the horizon during this miserable summer, the U.K. Meto has just issued a thunderstorm warning for Monday! 🌩⛈🙏🏻🥳

    Obviously it’s too early to predict with accuracy, but it at least gives me a glimmer of hope that this miserable summer weather will eventually break. 🌩⛈🙏🏻

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    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Morning everyone. 🙂

    Its been a little while since I've done this, so lets have a four week look ahead with the CFS V2 to see if it help shed any light on what's going to happen...

    Week 1 - 4th to the 10th August: What can I say? Its a high pressure fest, with various areas of high pressure linking up to encircle our latitudes! A spot of high pressure over the north pole, and a belt of low pressure in the middle! So I'd say that we're looking at a week of dry and settled weather.

    Week 2 - 11th to the 17th August: High pressure pulls back out into the mid Atlantic, and also towards Scandinavia and Russia. There looks to be a shallow trough of low pressure extending from the pole down towards Iceland. Although nothing in particular showing for us here in the UK, I think that this could leave us in a showery, north westerly air flow. Possible first taste of autumn as summer 2022 starts to fade?

    Week 3 - 18th to the 24th August: Pretty similar to week two... Except that the trough f low pressure to our north has faded. I'd say pretty similar to week two, only with less showers... But probably feeling more backendish. 

    Week 4 - 25th to the 31st August: Again, rinse and repeat as to weeks two and three! It looks like autumn is starting to pop its head above the metaphorical parapet! 


    So there you go! I know there are many folk who don't want to see the back of summer, but we desperately need the rain! Some areas more than others! Hopefully these charts are starting to signal and end to the drought conditions. As ever, time will tell. 🙂

    wk1.wk2_20220803.z500.png

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    • Like 4

    The changing daylight hours thread

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Twelve days ago on the 25th of July I started this current run of earlies shifts, and in that time the darkness has come along from just needing to put the kitchen light on at 04:30, to totally needing the light on until I head out to work! 😅👍🏻

    Not only that but this evening is our first pre-21:00 sunset since the 12th May! 😁👍🏻

    I thought I’d start your day off with the happy and cheery facts. 😁

    Cheer up everyone… There is darkness at the end of the tunnel. 🌌🌃🌃😁👍🏻

    • Like 3

    The heat haters club 2022

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Morning o’fellow heat haters. 😊

    Just posted this in the autumn 2022 thread. 👍🏻
     

    “Just popped the dog out on the lawn and I must say that after all of the relentless sun and heat spikes so far this year, it’s so nice to feel drizzle and see the hill fog rolling in… (Or not see as the case may be! 🤣)

    Its marvellous… More please! 🙌🏻🙏🏻🌫🌧🌫” 

     

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    • Like 2

    The heat haters club 2022

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Morning o' fellow heat haters. 🙂

    I've just posted the following in the autumn 2022 thread, so I've just copied and pasted here to save typing it all out again........



    "I am pleased to report that today is that auspicious day when I finally felt my first taste of autumn for 2022! 🍃🍂🍁😃

    Last night going before going to bed I noticed the mist and hill fog rolling in... But this morning when I took the dog out for a walk at 04:50, the first thing that hit me was that cool feeling dampness in the air! It felt wonderful! Then I noticed the heavy dew/dampness on the car! That was when I thought, 'Helloooo autumn!' 

    I'm fully aware that summer has probably gotten one or three nasty tricks still left up its sleeve, but this morning it certainly felt like a corner has finally been turned, and the horror's of last weeks heatwave are now hopefully a distant and fading nightmare. Long may this continue. 🍃🍂🍁🥳"


    So please keep smiling folks, the good times are acoming. 😃👍

    • Like 5

    Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Morning o'fellow autumn lovers. 😃

    I am pleased to report that today is that auspicious day when I finally felt my first taste of autumn for 2022! 🍁🍃🍃🥳

    Last night going before going to bed I noticed the mist and hill fog rolling in... But this morning when I took the dog out for a walk at 04:50, the first thing that hit me was that cool feeling dampness in the air! It felt wonderful! Then I noticed the heavy dew/dampness on the car! That was when I thought, 'Helloooo autumn!' 😃🙌👍

    I'm fully aware that summer has probably gotten one or three nasty tricks still left up its sleeve, but this morning it certainly felt like a corner has finally been turned, and the horror's of last weeks heatwave are now hopefully a distant and fading nightmare. Long may this continue. 🍂🍃🍁🥰

    • Like 2
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