[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Hello everyone. 

Another week has passed, so time for me to have a look at the CFSv2 four weekly anomalies to see what they're showing today... 


Week 1 - 3rd to the 9th March: High pressure over Greenland and low pressure over Scandinavia, with both pressure systems heading up towards the pole... This would leave us in a northerly air flow... I'm kinda guessing snow showers for the majority, but the eastern parts of the UK, being closest to the low pressure would probably have the best chance of seeing more heavy falls of snow.

Week 2 - 10th to the 16th March: The high pressure is moving more towards northern Canada, and the low pressure over Scandinavia is heading more towards Britain! By the looks of the chart, I'm guessing that we would still be in a northerly air flow, but with a greater risk of snow showers.

Week 3 - 17th to the 23rd March: ALL CHANGE! ... The low pressure now appears to be centered just of the south eastern tip of Iceland, plus with high pressure over mainland Europe, this could warm things up a bit by putting us in line for some mild south westerly air... Probably be 'damp'(ish) as well.

Week 4 - 24th to the 30th March: High pressure out in the Atlantic, and also over mainland Europe, and stretching up towards Scandinavia... Although nothing is really showing directly over us here the the UK, I'm gonna hazard a guess that this could put us in line for a southerly air flow... So mild if nothing else.


So there you go folks! Make of that what you will! As always this is the CFSv2, and they are low res charts... So always treat them with caution. 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Hello everyone. 

A few days have passed since I last did this, so lets have a look at what the CFS V2 is forecasting for the next four weeks... 

Week 1 - 24th February to the 2nd March: High pressure is pretty much centered between Iceland and us here the UK. This would give us a continuation of what we've been having... Very calm and settled days with chilly nights that bring the risk of frost and fog... Barring the odd weather front that could slither past... Not a lot else to say really.

Week 2 - 3rd March to the 9th March: What can I say? Apart from the high pressure slowly moving and expanding out into the Atlantic... Pretty much rinse and repeat of week 1! Although we might just have slightly more of a north easterly air flow. 

Week 3 - 10th to the 16th of March: Bit of a change!! That high pressure appears to be more centered of the north eastern tip of Canada and Greenland, with low pressure now over Scandinavia... This could leave us in a northerly air flow, sunshine and showers... Snow showers? Only time will tell on that... But this could be a result of the recent SSW. ... Watch this space.

Week 4 - 17th to the 23rd March: Back to where we started really! High pressure centered between Iceland and over us in the UK, but also stretching out over France, into the Mediterranean, and out towards Russia. yet more calm and settled weather... But as we head towards mid March, although the overnight frost and fog risk will continue it will be reduced, but it should be pleasant enough by day. 

So there you go... Make of that what you will! 

Still the lack of precipitation is starting to ring alarm bells with me as we head towards the summer, but the weather will do whatever the weather will do.

As always, this is a low resolution model, and the further out we go, the more it becomes unreliable... But there is a trend showing.

Have a good weekend folks, and hopefully I'll get chance to have another look next week. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into February]

Hello everyone. 

I thought I'd just add my two peneth worth for this discussion with the latest CFS V2 500hPa anomaly charts...

Week 1 - 21st to the 27th February: High pressure pretty much centered between Iceland and the nether regions of Scotland, but with its influence pretty much covering all of the UK, says that yet again we're looking at another dry week! But with the location of the high, it could well leave us in an light easterly air flow. My guess is that its gonna be cooler that its been over the past couple of days, but with a risk of frost and fog over night... Although I very much doubt we'll see the kind of temps that we saw in December.

Week 2 - 28th February to the 6th March: Not a lot has changed really... The only major difference being is that the high pressure to our north is expanding! So pretty much what I said for week one still stands. 

Week 3 - 7th to the 13th March: Slight change... The high pressure that was over us now appears to be forecast to head towards Greenland... The could put us in line for a more northerly airflow, but I'm still not seeing any major signs of precipitation. Still with the risk of frost and fog by night.

Week 4 - 14th to the 20th March: Again... Not a lot has altered! Still got the risk of frost and fog by night, and what could well be a northerly airflow.

 

So there you go... Make of that what you will! If the CFS V2 is right, (and that's a BIG 'IF') we're certainly look at a very dry four weeks coming up, which are possibly a bit on the chilly side by night; but by the time we get into March, the sun is again that bit higher in the sky, so my guess is that it could feel quite pleasant in the sun by day, but chilly by night.

For me the main thing that sticking out here is the potential lack of rainfall, if this doesn't change soon then we could be in trouble come summer! But I'm venturing off topic with that.

Anyway... Hopefully these charts will help some of the more experienced members on here. 

[The changing daylight hours thread]

2 hours ago, Maz said:

I've had a similar discussion with another user on here with reverse SAD and how the impact is so similar, but at the opposite time of year.  For me a key thing is to not let the "dread" of the dark months pull my mood down in autumn when there is still perfectly enough light.  Maybe the same for you?  Enjoy spring whilst light levels are not too intense and try not to let the impact of the brightness impact you until summer.  I'm sure you must hope for cloudy summer days the same as I do sunny winter days, for a bit of respite.

@Maz Grey, and cloudy, rainy summer days, or those with thunderstorms are the best for me, as its the almost overhead summer sun that cripples me... Its like the Eye of Sauron gazing down on me ! Mix in with that the fact that it never gets truly dark thanks to the lingering twilight, and I'm just desperate for any respite. Hence why by the time we get to May, I'm on a countdown to the summer solstice... As even knowing that we've just started to turn the corner, is a welcome relief. But fortunately, at the moment I'm ok with everything, as I've still got a good quota of darkness. Lol 

 

1 hour ago, markyo said:

I know exactly what you mean, i've had reverse SAD for over 30 years now, worst by far for me is May, its like being at the entrance to a dark tunnel looking at those 3 months to come, hate it.

@markyo Its actually a comfort to know that its not just me who feels like that as we get to May, as whilst everyone else is out enjoying the extra daylight, I just feel like some kind of outcast! ... And yes you have totally nailed with the the fact that its like staring into the entrance of a long dark tunnel... As early August at that point seems as far away as ever. 

 

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Summer SAD is a much less common than winter SAD, especially at our latitude, where unbearable heat can happen from time to time, but isn't usually long lasting. It's much more common in places like India/Middle East etc where the onset of late spring and summer bring months on end of 40c+ with no relief at night. Even that would wear down a summer lover like me!

Always found summer SAD a somewhat strange concept, as humans have evolved over thousands of years to flourish in the light for various reasons (hunting/we have poor night vision/vitamin D boost from sunlight etc) rather than in darkness, but hey....everyone is different! 

@mb018538I've been called far worse things that strange and different... Trust me! Lol 
Its more the excess light rather than the heat... Although having said that, I'm certainly not a fan of the heat and hot weather... Unless there is a juicy thunderstorm at the end of it... But I'm starting to go way off topic with that one. 


Anyway... I've probably dragged this threat way off course, so my apologies to the Mods for that. 

[The changing daylight hours thread]

On 25/01/2023 at 22:10, Maz said:

SAD is really hitting at the moment.  Had done really well until the Christmas period, but a slog since.

I like to split the year into 3month segments, corresponding to the sine curve in day lengths:

Dark - 6 weeks either side of winter solstice. 

Lightening -3months early Feb to eary April

Light- 6 weeks either side of summer solstice

Darkening - early Aug to early Nov (thanks to the clocks until late October really)

Which means, in my mind, from next week it is 9 months without SAD.  Doesn’t quite work like that as I find a lag effect in my moods and it takes time to recover in Feb/Mar.  It is a positive prospect though.

 

 

 

On 25/01/2023 at 23:20, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Me too! Too soon lol

Morning @Mazand @*Stormforce~beka*

Its an interesting post that you made @Maz, because as a reverse SAD sufferer, I'm exactly the same, but in reverse. (9 months of the year without SAD, and three months with it).  The part of the year that it starts to strike me is about mid April onwards, but by the time we get to mid May, I find it really heavy going... June is just a long hard slog for me, and all I want to do is to crawl in a cave or somewhere dark and hibernate until around very late July, to August... Just to try and escape from the none stop sunlight of the summer ... As December and January are for yourselves. 

Anywhoo... I hope that you're both feeling better (SAD wise) now that the daylight is increasing. 

 

[The changing daylight hours thread]

Morning everyone.

Well this morning I saw the first glimpse of the sun’s disc at 07:43, that’s just over 40 minutes earlier than it was at the beginning of January! 
 

Likewise, there is still a glimmer of dark blue light on the western horizon at 19:00! Plus the rate at which we’re gaining daylight is still increasing! 
 

The period of pre 15:30 sunsets and post 08:25 sunrises are now but a fading memory… Until we get to the end of the year again. Lol

[The changing daylight hours thread]

Well it been over a month since the winter solstice, and the increasing daylight is really noticeable now. 

For my area, the sunset this evening is at 16:41... Exactly the same time as it was on Halloween! 
Plus we have gained almost 25 minutes in the morning as well.

The pendulum is well and truly swing back the other way now. 

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

Hello everyone. 

Its been a couple of weeks since I last did this, so lets have a look at what the CFS V2 is forecasting for the next four week for us........


Week 1 - 25th to the 31st January: The UK appears to be sat under a rather large ridge of high pressure that stretches way out into the North Atlantic... This would give us light winds, plus if the anticyclonic gloom dissipates, the risk of more frost and fog... Other than that... Not a lot else to say really.

Week 2 - 1st to the 7th February: That massive ridge of high pressure appears to have sunk further south towards Spain and Portugal, with a trough of low pressure now starting to build up from North Eastern Canada, Greenland, and Iceland and slowly stretching its way towards us here in the UK. Looking at this chart, I would say that we'd be in a westerly and zonal airflow. Pretty average for the time of year really.

Week 3 - 8th to the 14th February: For us here in the UK, it looks like a rinse and repeat of week two... But... But, but, but... That ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic appears now to be linking up with a Scandinavian/Siberian High and encircling the pole!! Could this pump cold(er) air into the trough of low pressure? Its too far out to tell, and this is a low res model... But I'd say one to keep a weather eye on. 

Week 4 - 15th to the 21st February: Very similar to week 3 but with slightly weaker looking anomalies. Plus with the orientation of the high over mainland Europe, and the fact that it appears to be covering England and Wales, I'm gonna say that this could put us in a mild and westerly airflow.


Will it play out like this or not? Only time will tell. Hopefully this will help some of the more experienced members on here piece the puzzle together. But remember... The weather will do, whatever it wants to and there's nothing we can do about it, but watch.  

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

Ok… That was lightning … And a very distant rumble of thunder!

Evening everyone.

Is this going to turn I into my first proper thundersnow event since the winter of 1981?
… Probably not… But I can dream.

[Model discussion highlights]

Hello everyone. 

So for the first time this year, I thought I'd have a quick look at the CFS v2 four weekly anomalies, to see if they can help any of the more experienced members on here shed some light as to what might happen. 

Week 1 - 10th to the 16th January: Low pressure pretty much centered over us here in the British isles, and the North Sea. Wind, rain, and Atlantic onslaught ... Pretty much normal for January.

Week 2 - 17th to the 23rd January: A little bit of a change happening here... High pressure out over the Atlantic, and stretching out over the North Pole. Low pressure is now centered over Scandinavia. To me this would leave us in a northerly airflow. Now there is a possibility that the high pressure over the pole could start feeding in cold air into the low pressure over Scandinavia, and a possibility of snow showers affecting the eastern side of Britain. It could also be picking up on a classic 36 hour northerly toppler... Only time will tell...

Week 3 - 24th to the 30th January: High pressure is now pretty much over the top of us, and also stretching out over the Atlantic! To me that says that we could well see the return of frost and fog... Your classic dull grey January days. 

Week 4 - 31st January - 6th February: All Change! The high pressure of the previous week is now moving off out, and over the north sea, low pressure now out in the Atlantic, just off the west coast of Ireland, could well leave us in a mild southerly airflow. To be fair, if this was a chart that appeared over the summer, I'd be personally get quite excited because of the threat of thunderstorms! Could we get thunderstorms off this kind of set up in February? Only time will tell. 

 

So there you make of that what you will! Hopefully this will help out some other members on here. 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98196-model-output-discussion-new-year-and-beyond/?do=findComment&comment=4786856

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

Hello everyone. 

So for the first time this year, I thought I'd have a quick look at the CFS v2 four weekly anomalies, to see if they can help any of the more experienced members on here shed some light as to what might happen. 

Week 1 - 10th to the 16th January: Low pressure pretty much centered over us here in the British isles, and the North Sea. Wind, rain, and Atlantic onslaught ... Pretty much normal for January.

Week 2 - 17th to the 23rd January: A little bit of a change happening here... High pressure out over the Atlantic, and stretching out over the North Pole. Low pressure is now centered over Scandinavia. To me this would leave us in a northerly airflow. Now there is a possibility that the high pressure over the pole could start feeding in cold air into the low pressure over Scandinavia, and a possibility of snow showers affecting the eastern side of Britain. It could also be picking up on a classic 36 hour northerly toppler... Only time will tell...

Week 3 - 24th to the 30th January: High pressure is now pretty much over the top of us, and also stretching out over the Atlantic! To me that says that we could well see the return of frost and fog... Your classic dull grey January days. 

Week 4 - 31st January - 6th February: All Change! The high pressure of the previous week is now moving off out, and over the north sea, low pressure now out in the Atlantic, just off the west coast of Ireland, could well leave us in a mild southerly airflow. To be fair, if this was a chart that appeared over the summer, I'd be personally get quite excited because of the threat of thunderstorms! Could we get thunderstorms off this kind of set up in February? Only time will tell. 

 

So there you make of that what you will! Hopefully this will help out some other members on here. 

[The changing daylight hours thread]

On 03/01/2023 at 16:34, CreweCold said:

Personally I find the evenings drawing out depressing. Not even seen any snow yet. Plus, last summer was a complete slog, the worst summer I’ve lived through so far, by far.

Morning @CreweCold

As a reverse SAD sufferer I totally understand where you’re coming from. 
Although having said that, I’m generally ok with the increasing daylight until about mid April… That’s when it grabs me that it’s getting too much. By the time  my neck of the woods enters the world of the lingering twilight, it just becomes a painful long slog up to the summer solstice. 
 

I totally agree with what you say about last summer being a complete slog.

Keep strong my friend… Only 23 weeks and three days till the nights start getting longer again.

[The changing daylight hours thread]

On 29/12/2022 at 16:41, lassie23 said:

It will be 41 degrees before you know it. Happy new year.

AAAARRRRGGGGHHHH NOOOOOOO!!

Don’t say that @lassie23, as I’m still having nightmares and cold sweats about the heat from last summer with its total lack of thunderstorms! Lol

… But a happy new year to you as well.

 

But swerving swiftly back on topic… This morning is the first time that I’ve noticed it getting lighter earlier in a morning… The evenings have been doing so for some time now. 
 

Also, tomorrow is the point at which we start gaining two minutes of daylight per day, as it’s now full steam ahead to the vernal/spring equinox on the 20th March, and the summer solstice in June. 

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

Good morning and a happy new year to everyone here on Netweather.

Not being a fan of New Year, I went to bed early, which meant I got up early, and was treated to the sound of yet more very distant thunder!

Lets hope that 2023 produces many and juicy thunderstorms for us all.

[The changing daylight hours thread]

Hello everyone.

Well it’s been over a week since the winter solstice, and almost two weeks since the evenings started to get lighter… It’s now 16:22 here in North East Wales, and I have to say that the evenings are noticeably lighter than they were only a couple of weeks ago! 
 

The mornings don’t start getting lighter for me until the 1st January… So until Sunday my sunrise time is 08:26.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards]

Morning everyone and a merry Christmas to you all.

I was not expecting to hear the sound of distant thunder this morning! But because there is no traffic, I can just about hear some very faint rumbles in the distance.

A nice unexpected, and most welcome Christmas present from the weather gods.

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Hello everyone. 
I'm seeing lots of unsettled folk this morning due to the end being insight for this current cold spell, so to try and help people out, here's a look at the four weekly CFS v2 anomaly charts. 

Week 1 - 14th to the 20th December: Low pressure appears to centered somewhere between north eastern Scotland and Scandinavia. This should effectively leave us here in the UK win a north, north westerly airflow. Certainly not the warmest of directions! Also, I'm still seeing a large blocking area of high pressure over towards Greenland and north eastern Canada and stretching out over the pole towards Alaska and north Eastern Russia. Not quite a perfect position for us but hey! 

Week 2 - 21st to the 27th December: The blocking over the pole appears to be shifting away from us here in the UK. Low pressure appears to be centered just off the tip of Scotland. The angle of this low pressure would leave us in a south westerly airflow... So in other words, a return to normal... Wind and rain! 

Week 3 -  28th January to the 3rd January: High pressure signaling a return? High pressure is now over North eastern Canada, Greenland and stretching out towards Scandinavia and north western Russia. Whilst nothing is showing over the UK, I'm guessing that a 'lower trough of pressure' is over us. Could that high pressure start feeding cold into that trough? Only time will tell.

Week 4 - 4th January to the 10th January: High pressure fest!! High pressure stretching out from north western Canada right the way over Greenland, Iceland, the British Isles, Scandinavia and into Russia!! This would leave us in a very light airflow, (plus looking at this chart, an easterly airflow!) so I'm kinda guessing the return of frost and fog? Ahh well... Time will tell on that one. Plus its four weeks away, so all could easily change between now and then! 


So there you go folks... Hopefully these charts can help out some of the more experienced members on here. 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Hello everyone. 

Time for a cold and frosty Monday morning look at the CFS v2 four weekly anomaly charts, in the hope that it can help shed some light on what is going to happen in the future.

Week 1 - 11th to the 17th of December: We have a large trough of low pressure centered over the Midlands and stretching out over north eastern Europe, and towards Scandinavia. We also have what looks to be a large blocking area of high pressure over Greenland and north eastern Canada. To my eyes that is a cold easterly, to north easterly airflow, with snow showers at times.

Week 2 - 18th to the 24th December: We have a large blocking area of high pressure over Greenland, stretching down through Scandinavia, and into mainland Europe. I'm also seeing a trough of low pressure out in the Atlantic. Now the questions are; is this going to put us in a mild south westerly airflow? Or is this going to feed cold air into that trough of low pressure? Or... Is that low pressure going to get stuck over us here in the UK, as it comes up against that high pressure? I shall leave it to the more experienced members on here to decipher that! 

Week 3 - 25th December to the 31st December (Christmas day to New years Eve!): ALL CHANGE! We look to have a large Scandinavia high sat right over us here in the UK and Ireland! This would leave us in a chilly/cold east or north easterly airflow... I'm guessing the return of the frost and fog... Possibly freezing fog! It also worth noting that this high pressure stretches up over the north pole and towards North eastern Russia! I'm seeing a lot of cold air available with the high! Will we tap into it though? 

Week 4 - 1st to the 7th January 2023 (the first week of the new year): All change again? The Scandinavian high has retreated back north east, but there does appear to be a trough of low pressure starting to form over north eastern Canada, and starting to stretch down over Greenland. Will this reach us and put us in a cold north westerly airflow? Only time will tell. 


So there you go folks! Please make of that what you will! 

But hopefully this post will help some of the members of this good forum get a handle on what's going to happen next. 

[Model discussion highlights]

Hello everyone. 

being as its been a week (or there abouts) since I last posted in here, I thought I'd take a look at the CFS v2 four weekly anomalies, to either help clear the waters for other members or help muddy them? Lol 

Week 1 - 8th to the 14th December: We have a large trough of low pressure centered right over the Midlands and southern UK and stretching out over north eastern Europe, and towards Scandinavia. We also have what looks to be a large blocking area of high pressure over Greenland and north eastern Canada. To my eyes that is going to leave us in an easterly airflow! Cold? Yes! Snow? I'll leave that to our more experienced members! Lol 

Week 2 - 15th December to the 21st December (The Winter Solstice): Pretty much a very similar setup to week 1! But with the trough of low pressure over us here in the UK weakening.

Week 3 - 22nd of December to the 28th December (So covering Christmas): The large area of high pressure over Greenland and north eastern Canada is now starting to extend outwards towards Scandinavia! The trough of low pressure over us here in the UK appears to have vanished... But has it? There's definitely something over us here in the UK, and the rest of main land Europe. But what it will do (as this is three weeks out) I have no idea. 

Week 4 - 29th December to the 4th January (Into the New Year): The large blocking area of high pressure that has been sat over Greenland, appears to be weakening. But there is a trough of low pressure now showing to the north west of Scotland... To my eyes this would leave us in a cold(ish) and unsettled northwesterly airflow. First winter storms? Time will tell.

So there you have it folks! Hopefully this will help some of our more experienced members of this forum. 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98087-model-output-discussion-the-cold-has-arrived/?do=findComment&comment=4757169

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Hello everyone. 

being as its been a week (or there abouts) since I last posted in here, I thought I'd take a look at the CFS v2 four weekly anomalies, to either help clear the waters for other members or help muddy them? Lol 

Week 1 - 8th to the 14th December: We have a large trough of low pressure centered right over the Midlands and southern UK and stretching out over north eastern Europe, and towards Scandinavia. We also have what looks to be a large blocking area of high pressure over Greenland and north eastern Canada. To my eyes that is going to leave us in an easterly airflow! Cold? Yes! Snow? I'll leave that to our more experienced members! Lol 

Week 2 - 15th December to the 21st December (The Winter Solstice): Pretty much a very similar setup to week 1! But with the trough of low pressure over us here in the UK weakening.

Week 3 - 22nd of December to the 28th December (So covering Christmas): The large area of high pressure over Greenland and north eastern Canada is now starting to extend outwards towards Scandinavia! The trough of low pressure over us here in the UK appears to have vanished... But has it? There's definitely something over us here in the UK, and the rest of main land Europe. But what it will do (as this is three weeks out) I have no idea. 

Week 4 - 29th December to the 4th January (Into the New Year): The large blocking area of high pressure that has been sat over Greenland, appears to be weakening. But there is a trough of low pressure now showing to the north west of Scotland... To my eyes this would leave us in a cold(ish) and unsettled northwesterly airflow. First winter storms? Time will tell.

So there you have it folks! Hopefully this will help some of our more experienced members of this forum. 

[The changing daylight hours thread]

Well the pendulum is slowly reaching the end of its stroke… 

I’m just on my break in work, so popped out to watch the sunset.

Due to the topography of the land, the sun has set at 15:18!! 
 

It also happens to be our second frost and ice day of not only this current winter season, but of 2022!

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

Hello everyone. 

Its been a week or so since I last had a look at the CFS V2 four weekly anomaly charts... So here we go... 

Week 1 - 2nd to the 8th December: Looks like a rather large area of high pressure is dominating the weather on our side of the globe! Stretching from northern Russia/Scandinavia, to encompass Greenland, the northeastern tip of Canada and the eastern seaboard of the US of A! This would leave us here in the UK in a rather chilly east to northeasterly airflow. Probably continuing the frost and fog theme that we've had going for pretty much all of this week.

Week 2 - 9th to the 15th of December: ALL CHANGE!! That large area of high pressure has now moved and set up over Greenland and the North Pole! Meanwhile for us here in the UK appear to be under the influence of a trough of low pressure from off the Atlantic. Could this be the start of a wet and stormy phase, or will that big blocking high to the north feed in cold air to that trough of low pressure? I honestly don't know is the honest answer, and this is a low res model anyway.

Week 3 - 16th to the 22nd of December: That big area of high pressure appears to be slipping away to the Alaska, and northeastern Russia. Meanwhile for us here in the UK we look to be under the influence of an Atlantic onslaught and a south westerly airflow. Probably not cold... Just wet and windy.

Week 4 - 23rd to the 29th of December: That blocking high to our north is back again! Spreading down towards Scandinavia! But also into mainland Europe and North Africa. There is also a trough of low pressure out in the Atlantic. Now that high pressure could give us some easterly winds or north easterly winds... Likewise its a similar set up what I would normally look for if wanting a Spanish Plume scenario in the summer! So I honestly don't know. 

So there you go folks... Hopefully this will help some of the far more experienced member on this good forum. 
 

[Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

So here we are at the final day of my favourite season.

So before autumn drifts off for another year, I thought I’d share some of the images I’ve taken throughout autumn 2022.

So from me, farewell autumn, see you again next year.

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

Hello everyone. 

Well, it's been a while since I've done one of these; so here's a look at the CFS V2 four weekly anomalies... Hopefully they'll help out some of our more knowledgeable members...

Week 1: 23rd to the 29th November - The Azores high appears to be centered over southern Spain/north Africa, with a very large trough of low pressure sat out in the Atlantic. This would leave us in a mild(ish) south westerly airflow, with more bands of wind and rain coming at us from off the Atlantic. All in all... Typical November fayre. 

Week 2: 30th November to the 6th December - All Change! A giant area of high pressure (Scandinavian High) stretching out over us here in the UK and also Iceland, and Greenland as well. This would leave us in a chilly/quite possibly cold north easterly airflow! I'm guessing that most nights would be frosty and I dare say foggy in the usual places as well! Plus with the sun being weak at this time of year, the fog could well linger all day! Could this give us our first frost days of 2022.

Week 3: 7th to the 13th of December - The high pressure is now stretching out over the north Atlantic, and covering Iceland, Greenland, Canada and the eastern seaboard of north America. Low pressure over mainland Europe would again leave us in a potentially cold north easterly airflow!

Week 4: 14th to the 20th December - High pressure over the North Pole, and stretching down over Greenland, Iceland and us here in the UK!! Again, I'm going to say that it'll give us more cold, frosty and foggy weather.


So there you go! The current spell of unsettled weather looks like it's going to be taking a break for a while. Will it verify? Only time will tell, so lets see what happens. 

[The changing daylight hours thread]

The winter solstice is on the 22nd of December this year, and (according to timeanddate.com  ) it'll occur at 21:48!

I find it really hard to understand where the times goes? It only seems like a few weeks ago I was commenting on the summer solstice, and now here we are in the world of pre - 16:00 sunsets, and only a month to go until the winter solstice!

Come on, own up... Who's messing about with time? Lol