[Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019]

Cloudy here and a bit misty around the hills also raining the current temp at 1.30pm is 8.5c.

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

Today's multimodel graphs the trend for temperature still remains around 7c to 9c for midday during the week up until 15th of December.

The air pressure around 1000 to 1010mb between Sunday and Monday then dropping to 990mb on Thursday and Friday with some signs of it rising slightly towards next weekend.

[Storm Atiyah - Atlantic storm No1]

Some gust charts from the ECM,

Saturday night windy in Northern parts 50 to 60mph likely,

Sunday lunchtime gusts in the 30s and 40s for most parts. Some of Scotland seeing around 40 to 50mph. Ireland windiest around the West coast gusts over 60mph,

South West of England and Western Scotland seeing 50 to 60mph gusts by 9pm on Sunday. Ireland still the windiest with the South West coast seeing over 70mph and perhaps over 80mph,

Over Sunday night into Monday morning windy across the whole country gusts in the 40s to 50mph for most some exposed parts over 60 to 70mph.

[Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019]

Cloudy morning with rain and at times a bit windy again its improved now though with a bit of sunshine out. The temperature over night was on the mild side at 10.2c now it's dropped to 8.4c just after 12pm.

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

This mornings multimodel graphs I've made a air pressure one as well,

Temperatures sticking to the same trend from yesterday staying around 8c to 9c for next few days with temperatures falling slightly towards the end of next week to around 6c to 7c. The GFS yesterday was showing temps as high as 14c it was clearly an outlier and this morning it's backed down to 8c.

Pressure staying around 1015 to 1000mb between Saturday and Tuesday then dropping to about 990mb next Thursday and Friday. Both GEM and NAVGEM look to be outliers from their 00z runs this morning showing big differences early on.

[Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019]

Wet and windy evening here but the wind seems to have dropped down a bit now highest gust was 43mph at 6.54pm.

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

12z Multimodel Graph Temperatures still staying around 9c to 10c next week but the sign of them dropping is still there from this mornings 00z runs Thursday and Friday dropping to around 5c to 6c.

[Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019]

Cloudy with rain here today current temp just after 12.30pm is 7.5c. It looks like things are going to turn more unsettled as we head into mid December.

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on]

I posted this for a while last winter a graph with several weather models showing the midday temps for London over the next 10 days it gives you a view on where each model stands and also an overall average. For the next few days temps will be around 9c to 10c falling slightly in a weeks time next Thursday and into the weekend with temps around 6c to 7c.

[Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019]

Much more milder today last nights low temperature here was 0.9c and today's highest temperature so far is 6.8c. Yesterday when it was much colder I went to Ardentinny to take a few pictures,

    

[Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019]

A low here last night of -2.7c its another bright and sunny day and still frosty outside like yesterday the current temperature just after 12pm is -0.4c.

[Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019]

Last nights minimum temperature here reached -3.1c beating my previous low of -2.4c. A max temperature of -0.5c this afternoon everything outside is still frosty and icy.

[Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019]

A minimum temperature here last night of -1.3c its been frosty and icy all day with a maximum temperature of 0.6c this afternoon. It's currently -0.7c I think my lowest temperature so far of -2.4c could be beaten tonight.

[Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019]

Minimum temperature here reached -2.4c last night my new lowest temperature so far. Today has been slightly warmer than yesterday where the temperature only reached 0.2c in the afternoon while today it reached 2.7c so all the frost and some ice has gone now.

[Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019]

Got down to -1.7c earlier this morning the temperature this afternoon so far has only reach 0.2c its still frosty outside.

[Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019]

Just rained here last night but we do have some snow on the hills. On Saturday night it got down to -1.1c my lowest temperature so far since last winter and last night not as cold at 2.4c.

[Hurricane Lorenzo]

Latest highest gusts a collection of airport, private and Met Office weather stations,

Ireland
South Rock Buoy 76mph
M6 Buoy 63mph
Inishbofin School 62mph
Buoy 62023 60mph
Belmullet 56mph
Mace Head 55mph
M4 Buoy 54mph
Roches Point 54mph
Magilligan 53mph
Galway Airport 52mph
Curran Point, Larne Lough 52mph
Malin Head 50mph
Dooneen 49mph
Corclogh West 48mph
Edernish island 48mph
Ballypatrick Forest 47mph
Sherkin Island 43mph
M3 Buoy 43mph
Connaught 41mph
Glenanne 41mph
Cork Airport 39mph
Belfast / Aldergrove Airport 37mph
Castlederg 34mph
Belfast / Harbour 31mph

Scotland
Drimsdale 55mph
Tiree 54mph
Islay 51mph
Machrinhanish 49mph
Campbeltown 47mph
South Uist Range 47mph

[Hurricane Lorenzo]

Latest satellite image from 4.30pm,

[Hurricane Lorenzo]

A quick look at some of the current top gusts across Ireland and other Western parts the Fastnet Lighthouse reported a gust of 66mph around 8am/9am this morning.

[Hurricane Lorenzo]

Hurricane Lorenzo will start to move over the Azores tonight and during tomorrow morning the image below shows the ECM's predicted gusts at 10am on Wednesday,

Today the models are in much better agreement over the path it will take when it makes it's way towards the UK and Ireland. This morning the ECM and Met Office look similar with it just to the North West of Ireland on Thursday night,

Met Office Fax Chart,

ECM gust chart for the same time its showing gusts around 60 to 70mph across the West coast of Ireland with some places possibly seeing higher gusts however it's important to note that how deep the low pressure will get still seems uncertain the Met Office has it at 976mb while the ECM is deeper at 962mb,

Friday 10am the ECM has the low pressure weaken to 984mb as it moves South East across Ireland giving strong gusts in land mostly around 50mph but some places seeing more up to 60mph,

Later on Friday the ECM has gusts around 50mph for parts of Wales mainly across the West and South along with the South West of England,

The above scenario is just one of two possible outcomes that the models seem to be showing but at the moment it does have more support as the Met Office, ECM, GEM, ARPEGE, JMA and NAVGEM all show something similar to this and just recently this morning the latest GFS run has changed to support this. So the second possible outcome is what the ICON shows. It's keeping it further North West the image below is for Thursday afternoon as the low pressure brushes pass Ireland the Western coast gets gusts over 50mph,

Instead of moving South East it heads North West and weakens overnight into Friday morning bringing just a rather standard windy day for Western Scotland,

But it's not just the wind to be concerned about its also going to bring a lot of rain to some places the ICON is showing a rain accumulation of 40 to 60mm over Norhern parts of the country with parts of Southern Scotland seeing over 100mm,

The ECM shows something a bit less extreme for the next 5 days with parts of Southern Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales seeing 40 to 50mm,

A look at the wave height for Azores on Wednesday 10am showing 54 foot waves,

Possible wave height of over 40 foot on Thursday evening for the West coast of Ireland,

[Hurricane Lorenzo]

A slight change over night in the models on the path it will take the ARPEGE, JMA, ICON and NAVGEM are keeping it further West into the Atlantic which will keep the worst of the winds away from hitting land although coastal parts of Ireland are still at risk of seeing some strong winds if this happens,

A closer look at the ECM gusts on Thursday night strong gusts affecting Western parts of Ireland.

North Western parts of Ireland on Friday morning gusts,

The ICON shows below even that would bring a brief spell of strong winds to Ireland despite being one of the models having things a bit more further West,

The GFS has been consistent agreeing with most of the other models keeping it further West but the 06z run this morning it made a change to agree with the ECM a comparison between the two at Friday 4am can be seen below,

The GFS has it placed slightly more South to the ECM giving the North West Ireland strong winds,

The Met Office FAX chart which is valid for Thursday afternoon has the storm to the South West of Ireland which is further South than what the ECM and GFS have it at the same time,

The image below shows the GEM model is very similar to the Met Office for Thursday night,

A bit of a closer look at the GEM model shows the strongest winds affecting Western Ireland while the Norhern parts miss out on the highest winds,

The models aren't still sure yet the GFS changing it's mind this morning shows that the models are still trying to work it out. What they do agree on is that Ireland will at the moment see some windy weather but exactly how bad and where is too early to say yet.

[Hurricane Lorenzo]

Both the GFS and ICON models are keen on sending it West out into the Atlantic this would mean the worst of the winds would miss hitting land,

The ECM, Met Office, GEM and NAVGEM are all in agreement of having it further East and a bit more South closer to Ireland and the South of England,

ECM gusts on Thursday night and early Friday morning

[Hurricane Lorenzo]

GFS 00z and 06z have a similar track,

The GFS shows Ireland get a direct hit on Thursday afternoon,

As it moves east it will bring strong winds to Wales and parts of England,

Early Friday morning see's winds easing for Ireland but windy over Wales and most of England,

 

The ECM takes a very similar path to the GFS just slightly more North,

But the ECM appears to be an outlier its ensembles don't fully agree with it. Since the ECM tracks over the South of Scotland I've searched for the location Ayr in Scotland you can see the air pressure differences,

The ECM could still be right I saw it happened at least twice last winter with storms the ensembles didn't back it up to begin with but over time did.

The other possibility is that it could track further West into the Atlantic and miss out on hitting any land entirely this was shown on a few models yesterday but most models have backed away from this idea today but it is still possible,

NAVGEM 00z had it further South so the worst of the winds would miss some Northern parts of Ireland and South of Scotland compared to the ECM but Southern parts along Ireland, Wales and England would see very windy weather,

The final thing that the models seem to suggest is it heading even further South into the Bay of Biscay which wouldn't really bring any severe wind speeds to the UK and Ireland,

 

It's still a long way and at this stage any one of these scenarios could happen so it is worth keeping a watch.

[Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019]

It was a lovely sunny day here in Barra although cold in the North Easterly wind. Here are some photos I took today,

[Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019]

Some sunshine in between the heavy showers took this picture today of a rainbow. All week its been mainly cloudy, windy and mild and it looks like this is going to continue for another week.