[Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019]

Just went and checked the Met Office stations and those uploading to Weather Underground as well the highest gusts from Friday and Saturday morning from around Scotland,

Gilmilnscroft Catrine 82mph
Loch Carrie 75mph
Dundrennan 74mph
Fleet Bay Solway Firth 73mph
Sannox Isle of Arran 69mph
Forth Bridge 66mph
Lower Milovaig Isle of Skye 65mph
Isle of Barra 64mph
Letham Shank Farm Berwick-upon-Tweed 64mph
Giffnock Glasgow 64mph
West Freugh 63mph
Prestwick Airport 62mph
Charterhall 60mph
Kingsbarns Fife 60mph
Tiree Airport 59mph
Loch Glacarnoch 59mph
Maybole 58mph
Aboyne 57mph
Campbeltown 57mph
Glasgow Airport 56mph
Leuchars 55mph
Eskdalemuir 55mph
Bunessan Isle of Mull 55mph

[Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019]

Highest gust here in Barra so far is still 64mph from just before 12pm. Its been cloudy with rain up to 20mm and windy all day. I went out later in the afternoon and got some photos looking out West to the Atlantic.

[Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019]

Wet and windy here today with a top gust of 64mph so far. I went on Weather Underground to look at all the weather stations there since it's windy across a lot of Scotland today below is a list of the highest gusts so far also includes some airports and Met Office weather stations,

Glen Ogle 68mph
Catrine 68mph
Castlebay Isle of Barra 64mph
Forth Bridge 61mph
Tiree 59mph
Maybole 58mph
Lower Milovaig Isle of Skye 57mph
Glasgow Airport 55mph
Eskdalemuir 55mph
Bunessan, Isle of Mull 55mph
Fleet Bay, Solway Firth 54mph
West Freugh 53mph
Isle of Eigg 52mph
Campbeltown 52mph
Islay 52mph
Oban Marina 51mph
South Uist 51mph
Dundrennan 51mph
Edinburgh Airport 50mph
Inverkip 47mph
Carsluith 47mph
Glasgow Bishopton 46mph
Langton Place Newton Mearns 46mph
Aberdeen Airport 44mph
Roberton 44mph
Brodick Isle of Arran 43mph

[Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019]

Most of the snow at lower level in Barra has melted now but the roads all week have been icy and the hills still have a good covering of snow on them. One of the lochs were frozen over pretty rare out here to see that. I took these pictures this afternoon. The snowy hills in the distance across the sea is the Isle of Skye which can be seen on days with good visibility like today.

[Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019]

The snow has arrived here on Barra today it's still mainly on the hills with a light dusting at lower levels. These are photos I took this afternoon. In the last hour, it's started snowing again.

[Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019]

We had heavy hail showers overnight and then this morning a few snow showers there isn't any snow at low levels here just on top of the hills which is better than what I was expecting I didn't think we would get any snow here at all.

[Monday 21st January weather observations]

Cloudy afternoon and evening with hail showers and 8.1mm of rainfall today.

Temperature 4.7°C.
Wind speed 16mph gusting to 23mph highest gust today 53mph.
Pressure 998mb Steady

[Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019]

Wet and windy here today the highest gust being 50mph so far. The Met Office has downgraded my chances of snow for tonight and Tuesday morning it's just saying rain now with some sleet showers. The GFS is still saying light snow tonight but just can't see that happening here.

[Monday 21st January weather observations]

Cloudy with rain showers and windy all of this morning and early afternoon.

Temperature 7.2°C.
Wind speed 35mph gusting to 45mph highest gust today 50mph.
Pressure 1002mb Falling

[Sunday 20th January weather observations]

It was sunny in the early part of the afternoon but gradually got more cloudy later.

Temperature 5.6°C.
Wind speed 14mph gusting to 25mph highest gust today 37mph.
Pressure 1022mb Falling

[Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019]

It was cloudy earlier this morning and we had a heavy hail shower at one point. Its cleared up now though nice and sunny. I'm not sure what my chances are for snow tomorrow the GFS is going for snow showers on Monday night into Tuesday morning and the Met Office show's hail and sleet showers so might see something wintry at least.

[Sunday 20th January weather observations]

It was cloudy for a while and had a heavy hail shower but its cleared up now to sunshine.

Temperature 6.3°C.
Wind speed 18mph gusting to 30mph highest gust today 37mph.
Pressure 1020mb Rising

[Saturday 19th January weather observations]

Stayed cloudy and dull for the rest of the afternoon.

Temperature 7.2°C.
Wind speed 10mph gusting to 15mph highest gust today 32mph.
Pressure 1010mb Rising

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Latest graphs update from earlier this morning you can see where around the 26th and 27th of January the models overnight have picked on the increase of the temperature slightly. Up to the 26th of January agreement hasn't changed much though still staying on the colder side.

Yesterday evening,

This morning,

Onto the air pressure, not too much has changed here the pressure rising on Monday then falling on Tuesday before slowly rising again on Wednesday and Thursday with it and staying around 1015mb to 1020mb on Friday and into next weekend with a hint that pressure will be dropping again into the last week of January.

Yesterday evening,

This morning,

 

Like I said yesterday I've just started to make these charts it's still a new thing but I think it just gives a bit more of insight over what's changing and what the current trend is between all of the weather models.

[Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019]

A cloudy day but at least it's staying dry and not windy. Interesting times ahead as we look towards next week although I doubt I will see any snow here we haven't even had any frosty icy days yet.

[Saturday 19th January weather observations]

Cloudy morning and afternoon but staying dry.

Temperature 7.0°C.
Wind speed 15mph gusting to 22mph highest gust today 32mph.
Pressure 1007mb Rising

[Friday 18th January weather observations]

It stayed cloudy in the afternoon with some rain. The wind dropped in speed this evening.

Temperature 6.1°C.
Wind speed 20mph gusting to 3mph highest gust today 55mph.
Pressure 1003mb Rising

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Updated graphs from this evenings weather model's keeping the cold trend going,

This morning,

This evening,

Also made an air pressure graph,

Viewing that GFS 18z was a bit like this,

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Although this is still experimental and just done it out of interest yesterday and this morning I put all the temperature data from a number of weather forecasts and weather models to look at the average daily temperatures for London.

Yesterday evenings chart,

This mornings charts,

I believe it's a good way to look at the trends for the long range temperatures. As the two charts show there's good agreement overall for it to get colder next week.

[Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019]

After yesterdays short spell of calm weather here it didn't last long during Thursday evening the wind started to increase again and overnight we had gusts over 40mph the highest reaching 52mph. This morning it's cloudy still windy with a few rain showers. I'm surprised the ferry left this morning in gusts over 40mph and the wave height forecast shows 8 to 10ft waves it won't be a good crossing.

[Friday 18th January weather observations]

Cloudy with showers this morning also windy.

Temperature 6.4°C.
Wind speed 30mph gusting to 48mph highest gust so far today 52mph.
Pressure 1004mb Falling

[Thursday 17th January weather observations]

A nice calm afternoon with no wind at all it was sunny at first but got more cloudy later. This evening the wind has picked up again though.

Temperature 6.0°C.
Wind speed 20mph gusting to 32mph highest gust today 47mph.
Pressure 1011mb Falling

[Weather Model Experiment Results]

On 16/01/2019 at 17:53, snefnug said:

A really interesting and informative tranche of research.  Thank you.  Look forward to tranche 2.

 

23 hours ago, fujita5 said:

As a data analyst myself this is fascinating, thanks for all the hard work!I

I'mactually starting a project at work using the Dark Sky API to get forecast data for multiple sites, good to see its verification stats are more than reasonable.

I look forward to seeing what else you come up with.

Thank's I'm glad you both found it interesting. It's good to have a better idea on how well each weather model does now and what ones to look at and ignore. I think people may need to pay more attention to the forecasts from Weather Underground and DarkSky because they both done really well.

Since DarkSky done well with Air Pressure and especially at 120 to 144 hours better than any other weather model you can view it's pressure charts although they aren't exactly clear without any isobars appearing on them so I've drawn on them to make them seem a bit clearer,

96 Hours,

120 Hours,

144 Hours,

Looks like it's a bit of a flat pattern it's going for.

Out of interest, I decided to see what the chances are for the upcoming cold spell I included Dark Sky, Weather Underground, BBC Weather, ICON and both the ECM GFS along with their ensemble mean. Location is London the chart shows the average daily temperature there is a pretty big disagreement between them for next week as the big red line shows the overall average temperature does look to drop between now and the 23rd of January after then temperatures rise slightly as we approach the end of January before they start to fall again,

[Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019]

An overnight low of 2.9°C here last night making it one of the coldest we've had so far this winter but no wintry weather just heavy rain showers with gusts up to 47mph last night. This morning and early afternoon have been bright and sunny with a calm wind.

[Thursday 17th January weather observations]

Heavy showers overnight with strong gusty winds but just rain no wintry weather yet it was, however, one of the coldest nights of this winter here so far. This morning has been bright and sunny with a calm wind.

Temperature 5.1°C with an overnight low of 2.9°C
Wind speed 4mph gusting to 7mph highest gust so far today 47mph.
Pressure 1015mb Falling