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liltbrockie

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Posts posted by liltbrockie

    East Anglia And South East England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    woohoo first post, have to say it was really nice to see beautiful crystal clear sunny sky and thick white frost covering everywhere even the roads.

    Hoping for some of the fluffy white stuff ! i reckon we are in with a reasonable chance especially is the streamer does its thing :D Ive even gone as far as to buy a months worth of NW extra radar !

    There's a free radar here ...

    http://www.meteox.com

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The hard part is getting the cold here in the first place, so that is all we need to be looking at to start with. Once the cold has arrived, then that's the time to worry about where any moisture will come from. Looking at this forum, most moisture looks to be in people's pants at the moment!

    Very true... I honestly don't see what all the fuss is about here re: massive snow...As we all know that actual location of snow is something that can only be forecast in the +72 hours time frame... BUT the point is... from these charts I don't see the potential for much snow anywhere .. its not even on the radar... Maybe I am being a bit pessimistic!

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by liltbrockie

    Sorry to sound like a broken record guys but can we firm up on the use of the terminology please

    The GFS is not a warm OUTLIER. Granted its one of the warmer runs on the ensembles but this doesnt make it an outlier, it simply makes it one of the warmer runs

    An outlier would have the operational all on its own - where as here it has some (granted, its limited) support

    Kind Regards

    SK

    From:

    "What's an outlier?

    An outlier is when the control run is different to the vast majority of the ensemble runs. A cold outlier is when the control run shows a colder outcome than majority of the others, and a warm outlier is when the control run shows a warmer scenario.

    I hope that helps :o "

    I'd say my terminology was correct but... whatever!

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Hi guys!

    I'm not too happy with the GFS this morning. The high pressure that wants to form over greenland is linking back up too readily with the high pressure from whence it came and pushing any cold air back further east. This operational run was a warm outlier though, I believe, so there's still hope it might be a wobble.

    However, I have seen the GFS get our hopes up before in a situation like this...we are teased with high pressure staying north but it nearly always sinks back down very quickly when things get into the reliable time frame..

    Here's hoping though...

    PS..Whats going on with the ensembles update on this site... the graphs are still on the 06hrs run from yesterday!?

    Matt

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