Downburst

We’ll have to disagree on that I’m afraid. That’s totally fine of course. They are a weekly mean also, so one has to watch the trend and understand in the case I used that’s surface pressure anomaly. I’ll let ecmwf know your review.

Plenty of evidence for excellent winter weather into and through February. Should be more high pressure than usual, with anomaly for high pushing to our north west. Hopefully cool, frosty and maybe snow later in February. Don’t go looking for nirvana on every op run for your own sanity, totally mad some of the day 10 analysis, but there you go. What’s wrong with a dry February I don’t know.

It’s an interesting study in group hypnosis of a captive audience. The more likes the more they react with ever more of what is wanted. How some people get posts removed and others with a barrage of one liners on each run that make little sense stay is not good in my opinion. It’s almost as odd as a gambler chasing loses at times.

well the seasonal looks ok, has to be some very fine weather in there May/June/July. Just fly out of UK Ireland based on the T320 charts on the model thread, guys in there will sniff out any inclement weather well in advance of the models (often wrong, have a bias, more runs needed, bin it, hasn't a clue, oh I like this model, it's "covered itself in glory" or it "hasn't covered itself in glory, will it back down? a stonker run, it's not right upstream with the energy, the GEM is all right, they have access to more information then we have) Do this and not a raindrop or cold wind for certain.

Where you flying to then? Morocco maybe

Real measure for me is seeing dust on the roads. The roads are real dry, they look bright and shiny. Not often it's this dry in January in my memory anyway. Loving it. Actually see a forsythia flower on a bush, just the one flower and snowdrops well up but not in flower yet not far away from them. I could actually cut the grass but won't. I'm loving this dry weather without any wind.

Week after next surface pressure anomalies (for the entire weekly mean) x It's followed by a resurgence of high pressure, with the following week showing that possibly moving north west, I think dry and hopefully sunny for the time of year looking at precipitation anomaly. However, next week is the one chance I'd suspect of proper cold this January, with it gradually warming up. I think we may well have a dry spell end Jan well into February. To add a rare at this time of frantic posts I put in December 19, to show the usefulness of these charts as a guide for probabilities

12z GFS has produced this daughter low for mid next week that stops the wedge and heights, its plausible, but wasn't really on the 06z run or the latest ECM. Still in of itself something like this might dump a lot of snow, but I don't believe it yet. As others have said this run is just trying it's best in a complex environment and FI is absolutely 5 days max as is always the case with cold.

Totally agree, we will have to see some actual snow at some stage given the current setup or else, I don't know. I'll scream. It was a frenzy in here during that run, but pressure was high and it didn't look like anything, except perhaps if it ran further, which it doesn't ECM up next which should give guidance after 180, in FI though.

At this stage I'd like to see some actual precipitation of the wintry type in the reliable, don't know about anyone else, but a northerly at the end of a run typically gets watered down in my view over the years. So the UKMO is excellent, but like ICON the next 7 days remain very dry, we have to wait to see the ECM to see post 180 hrs and what might happen, and that is FI.

Without that low nearing here, too far south, as the ICON shows it's drier than a witches.. to the end of the run, post that showers likely incoming. show depth chart to end of run from today. So need a source of precipitation.

It's a pretty reasonable possibility with this undercut low, it's certainly happened before and looks a good one to watch.

Yep, the black ice this morning putting the bins out was lethal, a drizzly rain on the frozen footpath, never known it to be as bad or as hard to spot. No salt stored, should have just picked some up when I saw it, but as soon as I buy something like that the weather turns.

Well it is cold, that is for sure, next 4 days about 2 to 4 degrees colder than normal, a brief return to normal and then possible return to 2 to 4 below normal based on the mean ECM run. The MAD thread is more about getting excited about each run then the output really. If I was to use the 00 CM run mean in there I'd be run out of it as that is the previous run, it's all about the latest run and assuming that the +7 or 8 day chart is now correct. Just fun for folks really. I can't be inputting in there as I've nothing to say that hasn't been said at this time of year a typical chart for this week

I’m labouring the point, but a recent case. I posted the 46 day ECMWF from Reading. It gets overwhelming derision in favour of the 4 day GFS operational as it’s not part of the immediate output, that’s understandable just for the excitement of rolling the dice, I’m sympathetic to that. But as the day went on, and I’m not either capable nor bothered to post this, but over the last week I realised that end of January was shaping up, or is I should say, to high chance of northern blocking. When I see the 46 day chart and some met office muttering I share a quick post with the mod thread, near zero interest. I have both a maths and computer science degree and I’ve enough time after working 28 years in tech to enjoy myself in my own interests, but forgive that aspect. Then Tamara posts a little obliquely what I had considered and it’s hats off. Then i see the same experts, not Tamara, consider sunspots as the new QBO or MJO mystery, sunspots I’ve studied as I was initially intrigued 15 years ago and in order to not be foolish with my peers I soon found out they have less than 1% significance to weather. Newton the greatest physicist I’m my view pondered them. It was at this moment and some of the experts comments on this that I have decided after 15 years of fun for me on this site I’m leaving it. I can’t be bothered not learning and reading txt speak from nrtwestsnow or whatever, and since the introduction of likes and promotion of toxic egos by the owners it’s not for me. I have access to the charts etc. so thanks to eye from the skys, born from the void, John Holmes’s and many others from the good times on here. Don’t accept toxicity and don’t allow the mods delete your valid posts. They are making a living from you being here, rebel always folks if you want to survive.

Well accurate solar spot info goes back to 1650 or so doesn't it? Very easy to do reanalysis I would expect. I'll keep an open mind of course, but hope any thoughts on this are based on scientific principles and not simply because of the immense magnitude of the sun, which can lead people into correlations that don't necessarily exist.

There's a sense of a little bullying (perhaps too strong a word) from at least one of the long term posters to anyone new that raises their head. I've been on here 15 years and have seen some great posters disappear and the same old one have a right go at anyone who might know their stuff. Pity really, not much the mods can do I suppose at the popular time of the year. The internet allows people who aren't necessarily popular in "real" life to find a niche where they are and they'll find a way to keep that popularity. In the long run the site becomes destructive, so expert moderation is called for to allow change in thoughts and some learning.

No, not this type and size. The 2021 eruption for all the news it got covered 4.8 square KM with fresh lava for instance and like this one was not an eruption into the atmosphere. Of course the modern internet press system will have us in lockdown and scared to fly, but we know that's how it works nowadays. Some day though, you never know.

Hopefully this post isn't deleted .There is good evidence the 2nd half of January being conductive to a chance of Greenland heights. It's a good sign and isn't heavily zonal. And unlike the current position, the lead up to which showed high pressure anomalies too far south all along, which we ended up with, the weight of output is showing more northerly blocking. Might get something very wintry mid to end of January. Thats a 75% against +NAO mid to end January in my book.

Reading the Model thread and I can't understand why my post was "hidden" earlier (that means deleted) when I posted on the long term chances of a backloaded winter Some of the superfluous one liners etc about Christmas dinners and all the rest on there, when some take their time to research and the mods just delete? But don't delete some posts that are very far removed from model discussion. I wonder why?

It says a lot about the winter weather we get now that looking 10 days ahead the only chance of as much a tiny frost is at Day 10, happens to be Christmas morning mind you, for about 3 hours before warming up as the day goes on. Won't happen exactly like this of course, but the yearly temperature record is going to be broken for sure now, can't see it being missed, that will be a mean annual of over 11 Celsius for Ireland.

It’s spring like in the garden this morning. Grass looks remarkably green and happy for time of year, everything including the grass is dry, although cloudy it’s bright with a southerly wind. Just a light pullover needed. Should really take advantage of it but I’m feeling lazy and in that weird indecision mode us humans get into

Yes, that’s interesting for sure. Not the normal setup that’s for sure, most winters let’s not forget it’s all blue. To your earlier point on the 46 day and into January. There’s a very high chance as winter progresses for very cold outbreaks from north and north east and there is ever increasing building block evidence for that.

They can concentrate in the highlands too you know

The air is coming from the east in a slack flow at your approx location. You don’t need -5 850s for a frost, far from it. In fact you can have +5 and above 850 and an ice day. BTW, any chance of consolidating the odd post to make this shared thread readable for everyone, I enjoy all your posts, but numerous one liners is hard work when catching up etc.