Downburst

Snowyowl9 Just wondering if you can explain that. Is that a forecast or the average for somewhere or what you are expecting?

Vey nice here today, actually 20c now in living room with no heating on today. Pretty decent couple of days before temps go back to more normal, but the sun is getting higher every day and this time two weeks spring will have sprung.

baddie I'm not considering the SSW even one bit myself, as I believe the interest in that is related to snow, so for those that want that only discussed on here apologies. But as to the actual weather over the period, it's probable first half of March will not be settled overall in my view. The ECM weeklies will be dismissed of course in favour of SSW not being computed, and I'm not sure if that is the case. But they are not pointing to a major shift of an upper level trough in this region, with the general global view looking possibly stuck in my view, long wave pattern. Time for change in the forecast for sure. Perhaps mid month might be sudden catastrophic high spell SCH The ECMWF weeklies The precipitation is looking wetter than average. We shall see though.

baddie March 2013, what a terrible month that was. Dublin airport mean an insane 3.1c for the month. April and May were cold too. Vile month that and one I am scared of seeing again.

Lowest temp I can see for me in the next 10 days is 4 degrees at the very end of the run at 06:00 am. Yet we can't discuss this on the mad thread. Has to be teleconnections and snow for the next month or so before that thread returns to discuss the long range weather based on the models with no bias.

East Lancs Rain Good point. Cork airport though is a little different to Cork city as its 500 ft above sea level. But I am from the east coast and even in that short distance there is a noticeable difference in climate. There is a guy on here from Cork chasing snow, I have no idea why he bothers. I have been in Cork in the winter and spring and it really feels noticeably humid and when the sun comes out in late Spring or Summer it can even feel tropical, if that doesn't sound far fetched. Fact is precipitation total has increased 7% and is growing over the last two climate periods, with temps also increasing. No getting away from it.

Jayces It' a great point. My immediate thought is that the data collected is just that data, so a number from an observation lets say of temperature is a given, despite the fact that it's lets say 1.5 C high compared to climate. So I don't believe the medium range models are struggling with background changes. However the models are not perfect and there are many built in difficulties https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/FCST/Known+IFS+forecasting+issues and perhaps for instance underestimating urban heat etc as one example will be exasperated.

Penrith Snow I don't think a sample of two countries show the UK is leading in warming over anywhere else. Perhaps you mean in the last 12 months or so over Finland?

Not sure if anyone posted. But the long range ECM is suggesting probability exceeding the mean temp on the high side, no surprise there given what is ongoing. What about precipitation? Not a bad signal there. Lets hope for a good one anyway, even come hail or shine we will soldier on.

Paul White. The corydalines will be moaning

Daniel* It's interesting you think the position of these transient anomalies have such a linear response. It may be as simple as measuring wind flows from a particular direction. It is much more complex than that. In any case I was responding to the fact that there is a north and south Atlantic and trying to remove some doubt on a simple geographical fact.

ANYWEATHER Thing is n your day, and certainly mine, there was probably a mother at home if the kids had to be sent home, or a trusted neighbour or extended family. There isn't today and the kids don't walk and have never walked home. So it's a little more complicated and has a few strands to it. I get your point but society has changed in more ways than simply being soft, its structurally changed. A lot has changed and sending a load of 5 years olds out on the street to make their own way home like happened to me a few times in Primary school when pipes burst in the late 70's early 80's would have the headteacher in court now. Older kids from neighbourhood looked after us, it was normal then. On the weather If it wasn't for the models we would of course be in deep snow now. Too much energy displaced and far too much disruption from "pesky" short waves this year

Really given the extraordinary global sea surface global temps surely one has to question how this impacts everything. It is truly amazing the last few years and in particular right now these last 14 months. Plenty of El Nino Years since 1981 too, so I discount that. What the hell is going on, I am aware of 3 or 4 possibilities for north Atlantic quadrant, but no one seems to be sure. I mean if someone 20 years ago said, hey lets increase the world oceans surface temp 5% above climate average, I think we'd say, ah no, lets not do that, one doesn't know what might happen.

Daniel* There is the North Atlantic and the South Atlantic. https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ I am happy with the usefulness of that long held geographical distinction.

knocker usual response for reactionary models who don’t follow the party line is of course a spell in Siberia. Oh wait!

Thing about Spring is you can get great days on and off, as the season rolls on and the sun gets higher. But the fact is it's just as cold in February as January and with cold seas the wind can be perishing (don't hear that word anymore) right through March. So I'm happy with February tomorrow, but keeping a close watch on the winter fightback.

@MisfitDog3 @Methuselah It is extremely low. The lines of longitude and latitude on the map due to the spherical map are condensed the further north and hence the pressure lines appear to be too. So it can appear more condensed in my opinion, but open to argument, which is a given on here

@WadeuhhhHHHhhrghhhuuuuHHHggrruhhhHHhh Pancakes - Shrove Tuesday is early this year, all the ingredients pancakes

I know the mother of a young woman killed by the storm isha Sunday. Happened in early hours, a tree fell on the vehicle in the early hours. Very sad and does make one think. Lots of damage in Ireland north and south, really was a terrible night. Lost a small tree myself, but others lost a lot more in property and two lives.

I got of lightly, sorry for you guys that had impacts. Just a cordyline tree for me, a nice one mind you, but it was young and they grow quickly from the base anyway, should be multi stemmed now if it grows from the base. Amazingly mild outside now.

That is not surprising. The variability in when or where it snows is amazing year over year. There is no real set rule, but on average Jan and Feb are the most likely, but it varies with location within Britain and Ireland. Also true is a northerly in April is very cold and indeed, all the more so as it can come after some mild weather and it is noted by adults as you grow up. I grew up in the 70's and 80's and I remember old women calling to the house etc saying "it would cut you, it's colder than winter etc etc. If it happened in January, not much said.

February and March is when the sea is at its coldest around these shores. We can as someone said get a near summer day in March on occasion, although you won't be sitting outside on the deck in a T-shirt late into the night, it's a month like April subject to seasonal reversal and winter can bite back. It's never easy this climate is it. Drive you to post anonymously in the internet it would

Beast from the East was Feb 22 to March 5 or so, Storm Emma March 2 during this episode which dumped copious snow. If it's aligned correctly the winter doesn't give a hoot about start or end of February whatsoever. It's still winter. I do not like these has to snow in January posts.

Depending on when you consider Spring starts, for me March 1, there are just over 6 weeks left of true winter. That's not long, it's long enough for winter to bite back, but not too long. So things are looking positive for me with this balance to be honest. I know march can be cold to very cold, but it's all eyes forward by that time anyway. Edit, I could have just said we are about half way through winter

A dusting here in Louth this morning. Gone now, probably about as best as can be expected. Yes, this storm wasn't on the ECM 00 run, but one is on both the GFS and ECM for around the 24th. 12z coming out now on GFS to see if it's still a thing or moves like 06z to the north and over Scotland.