Downburst

you have to remember rmost people are not interested in model runs 8 times a day. Also the met office have a procedure well understood for severe weather. I am curious though where you believe the media would get their sources? James Madden perhaps. I would think the met office forecast will drive the response. Reading it now there is no need to panic the general population just yet.

Look in the same way you need to stop using emotive language like stonking and corking. And it was not stonking at the point the SW moved east into BI, not at all. At that point it was called stonking??? That had never been shown at all. Please allow some room for analysis and not bluster.

exactly but that gets absorbed on the GFS 06 - but I think we have to wait to see more runs of this particular event. The 500 anomaly charts tell us not to worry about this so let it go for now?

yes it is cold already with a NW airflow. What I am thinking again looking ahead is when and if it does snow and lets say we get the "snow fields" the embedded cold air on the surface that happens, Does the GFS for instance add that to the model, or take it into account or not for the future? I don't see very cold low temps forecast and I question whether the snow is taken into account yet or not.

Sensible approach. Some of the experts people refer to are still in school, just remember that. I think in Ireland one has to be very aware of our position even further away from the east and even more modified by warm water. I think the weather pattern forecast is very far from normal to say the least and that there is a lot of chance of colder weather potential but I would leave it at that for now in terms of the forecast until perhaps early next week. Never ever expect snow for certain outside a 24 hour forecast. This time if it does snow it will not be as much a shock. Driving will be better, people will cope better than last time I hope.

about 100 years of averages and max and means to look from the records and understanding and being qualified in mathematics along with looking at the models before me which have yet to show anything more than a heavy frost out to FI. With that said I can get all dramatic for you if it helps. "you will be snowed in for 3 weeks, your pipes will burst and you will fall and break your skull on the ice!" Enjoy.

don't worry for a couple of reasons. Nothing has happened yet. You are getting early warning of a possible event. so you are taking on board what 99% of others haven't and are worrying ahead of time. But most NB if it does happen it might be cold and dry and actually nicer than normal. The press and this site will blow this all out of proportion with worse case scenarios. I promise you it will be fine

Wintry showers over higher ground does not mean snow. Typically the use of wintry showers is used to mean hail and sleet and maybe snow. So clearly they are saying it will be cooler than normal with potential for rain and this rain to be "wintry" over higher ground. Now this is not Snowmageddon being forecast.

The very warm sea surface temp anomaly south of Greenland and the counter clockwise move of air in the NH and the very big surface HP anomaly to the east of the HP. Is there a link I wonder. I know GP can answer but I would love to hear simply put what is causing this.

When is the first, I am afraid to say this is a terrible run, not as cold as 1963, or 1947 or 1979 etc etc. going to come. Then 18 year olds will be smacking their heads off the table, "not as cold as 1963 dammit" posts? It's amazing to even flirt with this in November. Even if it doesn't snow it will be amazing to have a biting easterly and most normal people will get that.

Yes indeed, usually happens that a low comes from the south or south west and a "battle ground" happens at the end of all easterlies. the undercut is very common and usually produces the most snow in volume terms, the snow might not last very long as the cold snap ends post this. But hey we all know that it can't last.

Corner your local market for salt now before the big chains rob people, I mean in the morning! I'll be checking out the plumbing next week on my own house. I lost water Boxing day 2010 and 4 days of no mains doesn't half make you realize how important running water is.

Mad charts. Couldn't make it up. I have never seen it before. Defies the norm to see that High around the cape and to get a fetch so quick for us. Hats off to Matty for saying it's all getting shifted faster our way interms of the models. Just another solution that will be forgotten about in the morning so realx and don't expect this to happen this way. This is just the operational on another run. Many changes to come before reality hits, but the theme is one of amazing potential. Please understand.

Good to see you are following your dreams and making them a reality Matty. Time flies. Now that the threads is so full for any aspiring people watching take note.

Great post, well explained. Good job of course it's conjecture based on one run. I am not being ironic. I follow the operational, it does the same job.

How dare you say such a thing. I'm in shock. You need to take the ECM (sneaky look at the JMA) then project the JMA evolution on how the EMC should look in your humble opinion, look for any option on the already multi option FI output and pronounce at great length. Never be childish and happy, never! . How dare you!

Calm down folks. Cool it. Many runs each day so if you are convinced this one is not 100% wait to see the next before getting all upset. My word. Anyway the 120 to 144 jump is amazing in my opinion. Fantastic Run this. Guys remember a lot of folks here will spend a lot of time moaning during any actual snow, so relax on reacting to any bait.

Fantastic to see these charts and so early on the season. That's the main thing for me. Good work from GP and indeed from the Met Office and ECM 32 etc in catching this well out. John of course with the 500mb charts. Over the last 5 years forecasts are improving so much. Not expecting 2010 just yet but of course it won't be 97/98 so happy to watch. We will have to see. No need BTW to write war and peace on each run.

LOL - if only

I can acccept GMT if and only if they'd change to Summer time earlier than end of March. Why change end of October and then wait an extra month on the other side. the Americans under G W Bush tightened this up a few years back. Changing first weekend of March would save energy and lighten the mood a bit.

I’ll echo that. A good few years reading here and my favourite contributor is TEITS. The most well rounded and backed up and reasoned poster but most of all an honest chap. Well done and many thanks TEITS.

Good man, as someone who took a degree in maths at one point I can tell you all you'll ever do in maths is add, subtract, multiply and divide, not necessarily in that order but that's all there is to it. I am certain anyone can be good at maths if the teaching is good early, not everyone can write a good novel though. And most people on here have a natural liking for science since they came to the site. One thing I am surprised at is you guys don't seem to use the word too anymore it’s "to" in all cases? Drives me mad that.

Over two weeks to Halloween also. Like Christmas and advertising the forecasts are getting earlier each year. In fairness some facotrs being considered are the correct ones, but I have some concerns that a lot of people are being led up a path and this is related to a poor summer and low arctic ice. I get the real sense that a comet would set some of the well respected people off all together

Even when you get snow, it is transient in this climate. This has always been the case in the last 1000 years or so with very little exception. Last year and perhaps 90% + of the last 100 years it was the case. What I think is happening is that the poor summer has caused a deficet in peoples weahter needs so this winter has to fill that in. People are expecting a mini ice age, no doubt about it. Some people are almost certain at this time?

At Tiksi, near the Lena delta, on the shores of the Laptev Sea in the Arctic ocean... There were three flakes of snow and a load of commotion... For the God of Ice and Snow, blew through the town, causing a snoplosion and such emotion as seldom was seen, since that great winter of 1963