Downburst

There will be severe floods in some areas in very sharp and heavy showers in the UK and Ireland. Note the GFS model will not show this yet. The algorithm on this computer model doesn't compute this due to the particualr complexity involved in this type of event. But I am certain of flash floods from heavy ex tropical rain. nearly everywhere will see beautiful heavy and dense rain drops, probably lasting 45 mins to 1 hour as a front moves overhead on Monday afternoon. Get cameras ready

50 ft waves - says it all there. If it's a slow news day tomorrow bet that will be 50 ft killer waves

BFTP can you please explain this "his theory isn't likely to be dramatically interfered with short term so my reckoning is that it will remain simialr to.... "

On a very non scientific analysis. The notion that we've had 3 below average winters in a row (as Mr-Data points out not exactly the same Winters which is important) seems to suggest we can't have another, i.e. we will have a mild one, it's a mild winters turn. I see this differently. Again just guessing, pointless I know. We've had 3 cool Winters, or cooler than the 90's in a row, well there is a pattern or something causing this, and therefore we can expect another one now. Series might break for sure, but the cause of the recent 3 might be there to some extent. I mean saying we've had 3 poor summers in a row doesn't guarantee a great one next and anyone here suffering from vitamin D deficiency can attest to that! So here is a total guess based on a weak La Nina and -NAO around mid-Winter, something opposite to the last 3, sure why not. I'll go for a wet windy October dominated by Atlantic conveyor. November very average. First 10 days December Anticyclone centered around SE England, nice shopping weather and frost at night. Then move's to a Major Greenland Block and extreme Cold last week December, low over Scandi, this then ending mid January to cold NW returning Polar air and snow showers in the NW of the B Isles.Then a dry mild and increasingly warm spring.

Interesting thing. Malin Head in Donegal, very north of the country records an amazing average 66 days a year with gale force winds, very roughly that's once a week. Centre of Ireland the average is 1.2 days, or about once a year in the dead center. This is not just the land calming the wind down. It's also the average track of the depressions just happen to pass north of Ireland and clip Scotland. Remember Hurrican Charlie in 1986? It broke lots of records European impact Reservoir dam in Ireland that nearly overflowed due to Charley After Charley became extratropical, the United Kingdom Met Office issued weather alerts prior to the arrival of the storm, noting the potential for "extremely heavy rainfall [which would] cause local flooding."[9] In the United Kingdom, the threat of the storm resulted in the cancellation of ferry service between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, as well between Great Britain and France.[20] The extratropical remnants of Hurricane Charley moved across Ireland and United Kingdom with winds of 50 mph (85 km/h).[6] The storm's rainfall significantly affected most of both countries, with the exception of Scotland in the United Kingdom.[20][21] In the English Channel, waves up to 26 ft (8 m) in height breached and flooded a ship; the 31 passengers on board were rescued by helicopters and other ships.[21] Throughout the region, the storm resulted in at least 11 deaths.[20] First passing just south of Ireland on August 25, the storm dropped heavy rainfall and brought strong winds, significantly affecting the coastline where winds of 65 mph (105 km/h) were reported. Rainfall spread across the entire country, peaking at 11.0 in (280 mm) in Kippure. There, a station reported more than 7.8 in (200 mm) in 24 hours, which set the record for the greatest daily rainfall total in the country. Several 24 hour rainfall records were set during the storm, and new six-hour and twelve-hour record totals at Casement Aerodrome were set with 1.63 in (41.5 mm) and 2.61 in (66.2 mm), respectively.[9] The rainfall left some areas flooded,[20] particularly in the Dublin area where 451 buildings were inundated, some up to a depth of 8 ft (2.4 m). Preliminarily, it was described as the worst flooding in the history of Dublin.[9] Two small rivers, the Dodder and the Dargle, overflowed their banks due to the rainfall.[9] The River Dargle overflowed in Bray, flooding some areas up to a depth of 5 ft (1.5 m) and forcing about 1,000 people to evacuate;[21] several special-needs people were evacuated by boat. The flood, which originated about one mile north of the town, damaged over 500 houses and brought down several trees. Despite local politicians promising for flood protection after the flood, the city remained vulnerable to such flooding at least 20 years after the storm.[22] The River Dodder, which also overflowed, nearly exceeded the reservoir dam in Bohernabreena in South Dublin. Additional spillways were later added in the event of another similar flood.[23] In the Wicklow Mountains, the rainfall resulted in significant runoff, which caused erosion along the Cloghoge River.[24] The passage of the storm left heavy crop damage, part of a larger period of poor agriculture in the country.[21] Throughout the country, the storm caused at least five deaths, four of which were drownings in flooded rivers; the fifth death was caused by a heart attack while being evacuated from flooding.[20] Two months after the storm struck, the government of Ireland allocated IR£6,449,000 (1986 IEP, $8,650,000 1986 USD) to repair roads and bridges damaged by the weather system.[25] The storm also affected the United Kingdom as it moved across the southern portion of the country.[6] In Wales, Charley produced record-breaking daily rainfall, which surpassed 4 inches (100 mm) in Dyfed. Some locations received hundred year rainfall.[26] The storm struck the area during the Summer Bank holiday, creating unfavorable conditions for driving and resulting in several accidents.[21] Heavy rainfall flooded rivers, which swept away several people. This prompted officials to deploy boats and helicopters to assist in rescues, although at least three deaths were reported due to drowning in the rivers. Severe flooding was reported in Cumbria and Gloucestershire. The storm also left roads blocked by fallen trees and power lines. In Whitland, Wales, local soldiers assisted rescuing people, and later contributed to the cleanup of the town. Throughout the country, five people were missing after the storm, all of whom are presumed to have drowned; an additional death was confirmed in Newry, Northern Ireland.[20]

http://met.ie/forecasts/5day-ireland.asp is a handy little site. I know it just covers Ireland but those in NW England and Sctoland can draw conclusions Select Wind Tab and cycle thru there. Uses NWP and ECM models so you can't get better. This will be very handy to watch within 48 hours of the arrival. Also these are average winds, not sure if it is sustained per hour or how it's measured. There will be the gusts well in excess of average. Coast is good, West coast better. How about in a pub on the west coast of Ireland with the turf fire lit and a pint of plain in front of you istening to the old fellas, "I'll never forget the night of the big wind..."

Getting excited about this and to be honest I hope it moves a little south. Bar far the best experience I ever had with the weather was during a violent storm force depression about 12 years ago I think, I wish I could nail it down, usual situation, late at night, windows almost buckling (single glazed then) trees bending over, humid moist air all going to normal if a little bit on edge. Went to bed hoping house would hold together. At 2.00 am I woke to a terrifying sound, now I am pretty used to one or two storms a year. Went down stairs and outside as it was so much more unusual than the normal high pitched sounds and sounds of wind hitting off trees and buildings. I heard the famous freight train sound, by far best way to describe it. Above the squally winds was a massive roar seemed to be coming from 100 feet above, somehow all around, the normal stormy sound around me but lessoned by the freight train sound, a kind of mechanical roar, like a factory or something, it was malevolent. Also I could clearly see masses of objects, tree branches and leaves and who knows what in the wind moving at about 100 feet. Exactly like a Tornado but horizontal. It was terrifying, the wird noise and the objects moving, like someone was doing it on purpose, a weird feeling. Want that feeling back though and haven't come close since the 90's.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf Looking slightly more likely for -ve ENSO conditions to develop in Autumn, although neutral also equally favoured, they are suggesting mounting evidence for -ve, read it to see what I mean, we will know in a matter of weeks. Given all the data out there and particualrily the composites outlined with other major factors based in them thanks to sebastiaan1973, in http://weatherintoro...tlook-2012.html for a great example I am really hopeful of a very cold first half to the winter. Looks similar to last year unless someone can tell me whats different? Really amazed with the -NAO + -AO composite and the low sunspot composite being so similar. I'd love to get GP's thoughts.

Very well reasoned out and exactly what I am hopful happens, he is looking for a decent La Nina state and we can all watch that in the coming weeks. If I am reading this correctly the potential GB may not be as strong in his outlook, but hey if heights are high there it will be a damm site better than the vast majority of winters. At least we know the pointers to watch for.

Yes, I think he did say the Scandi low would be more to the west. But I can't see how this would be sustained for over a month, maybe 3 or 4 days and it isn't very cold anyway. Looks like a prediction for a +ve NAO and the start of a mild stretch. However I am no expert that's for sure and I do appreciate the forecast very much.

Thanks Winters Tale for that data. December 2010, how truely remarkable it was, it really jumps out there in your data, as I would have thought January would have beaten it more often in Scotland. But the reality is that away from the Highlands Scotlands climate is of course not as extreme as people think. Last December, regular -10 nights and sub zero days, for what seemed weeks, heavy snow and finally for me no mains water. I think in some ways the constant craving for snow on this site at the time deflected people from realizing what they were witnessing was a very freaky occurance. I sat in a stadium in Dublin at the end of November at -6 in the afternoon in fog and was in a bad way at the end of the match. Since then I have replaced my front door, added triple glazing and will be taking steps shortly to insulate mains water outside my property in the expectation that such an event has to have a cause and that a shadow mayreturn this winter. Going back to a post a made elsewhere, of the last 25 occassions that January had Sun Spot activity of less than 25, 18 of those months had greenland blocking. If we get that then we will at least get some cold blasts.

I think there is as much a chance as any year more or less, in other words what were the chances of last year having a sub zero month CET. Well this year the chance will be exactly the same as last in my opinion. How many years in the last 100 have had a sub zero month and what is the distribution?

Some parts of Scotland are very mild with long day light hours and plenty of rain in the Summer, perfect for grass and hedging. Growth is not an issue. Only 15% of land in Scotland is not marginal land, however they still produce 2.3 billion in output from that. In Ireland it is close to 8 billion and that is under very low intensity. I think this site gets a bit over the top on the north south divide, the climate outside the SE is really not that different. I am aghast at some of the assumptions of Scotland as some sort of Tundra. I would say that grass cutting in the Summer the average garden in Scotland requires a lot more work due to moisture, density of blades per M than it does in the SE of England, hence more man hours and more cost per acre. All in all good for Gardeners and Black and Decker.

Duller than average and a good bit cooler too. Rainfall just below average. April and May were perfect though which I think accounts for the negative feeling towards Summer, you just imagine after a few cracking days in April and May, gardening well under way, ground dry as a bone that it will get even better and you'll be sitting out all Summer in the evening. If you did that here this summer you'd be a hardy man indeed. I've lit the fire each weekend in August, first time ever to do that.

Just to help others, http://www.cpc.ncep....e/sstanim.shtml It really helps visualize the ENSO anomalies. However if only it was as simple as just ENSO reading. Apologies http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf Latest update August 29th Summary •ENSO-neutral conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific. •Sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies are becoming increasingly negative in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. •Atmospheric circulation anomalies still reflect aspects of La Niña. •ENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011, with ENSO-neutral or La Niña equally likely thereafter. Update: NAO http://www.cpc.ncep....a/nao.sprd2.gif The ENSO pattern is near neutral now and forecast to stay there, which might be good in order to reduce the complexity of looking ahead. The NAO has been negative since early June, the last time I had any sort of summary weather, no suprise there. I think this Winter if ENSO remains very near neutral we can expect the NAO index to be the most useful guide to forecasting our weather, I know folks will say ENSO drives NAO to some degree and I can see that makes some sense, but from what I've read that is not totally proven. Anyway I would not be surpised now looking back at the Index that the previous long run of negative conditions may have come to an end and we go major zonal this winter. Thoughts anyone? Greenland Blocking from http://www.climatelogic.com/forecasts/winter-2011-forecast-europe.html "The effect of solar activity is more clearly seen in the Greenland Blocking (GB) index, which represents a high pressure center sitting, as the name suggests, over Greenland. The statistics shows that in 15 out of 18 winters since 1955 when January sunspot numbers were fewer than 25, the GB index was positive. The GB and NAO indices are inversely correlated with r = -0.83 for the period 1949-2010. It is interesting to note that the GB index experiences a strong positive trend since the late 1980s (Fig. 2). In December 2009, the GB index sharply increased and remained positive since then" Very interesting in bold. Might be incorrect data of course and I know it is not as simple as that, but I'd love to see a map of sun spot activity over NAO index to see if there is any relationship as is suggested above. Anyone?

Power outages are very common in the States in what we would consider benign enough conditions. Part of the reason in my opinion is so many of the cables being over ground and of unbelivable cheap construction, i.e. the cheapest possible solution is deployed in all cases, you see sparks fly in a breeze sometimes, construction there would surprise a lot of people. However I'm sure many people will be without power for days outside the main cities and towns. They use pumps for water so water is an issue, hence everyone needs a generator and I don't think it uncmmon for that to be used a couple of times a year in some places. If they spent the money on good infrastructure in the first place though would this make so much news? Incidentally not only are the news people blowing it up and up to the nth degree, the politicians will now out do themselves to make pronouncements, governor will out do the mayor etc. etc and the President is using the term "Historic".. I've read some very funny ones already like "Mayor Orders bridge shut" .some more measures and then.....if winds go over 60 mph later in article as an afterthought.

No question this is a major weather event and if I dare say an exciting one at that, with fingers crossed that people will be safe. Some caution though, you know the advertising rates fly up on the TV networks in the states for these events. The stations will do anything to get more viewers and being the states this means being as sensationalist as possible. Expect all reason to be lost as people 50 to 100 miles away from the outer zone who will get max winds of 30 mph in a gust rush out to buy generators, "dry" foods and of course batteries and torches and lots of them. Talking to sensible folks in Virginia two hours ago and I asked of course about the storm and the discussion was far from a panic and I did hear people laugh about the news going overboard.

Is this excellent topic shut down? I know we are the mercy of the intelligent and considered input from GP and others, my own considerations could not in anyway compare. I don't want to be pushy but I miss the analysis. Perhaps there is another thread somehwere? Many thanks

I think the output is not too bad at all. If you go for a half way house between ECM and GFS at present the Azores high is ridging quite a bit into the British Isles. Average July weather we can expect. So get out there and enjoy it.

Is there an ammended "hockey Stick" graph now that the original is in question? or where is the best place to see the actual world temperature over the last 50 years. Incidently, why is the earth temperature not always nearly the same each year, why the fluctuations? Obvious question I know, but that's what we have to look at and see what drives it higher, then what drivers it lower the next year etc.

In Ireland, most of the East Coast and Midlands have had record breaking temperatures. We've had snow lying for at least 13 days. This will go down in the consciousness of this Isle for sure, not least since it started in November; we are usually cutting grass in 12 to 14 degrees at the end of November in Ireland wishing for some frost to stop it. The deviation form the mean has been immense. Now i have more of a conceptual understanding of the ice age, 15,000 years ago where I write there was 1 kilometer of Ice above me. I believe now that that was possible. Four dumping’s of snow in two weeks! The rations in the previous 20 years delivered in two weeks.

Thinking of Benefits of switching back on first weekend in March; (I can't think of a downside at all other than for bulb manufactures) Reduced Energy Comsumption means less carbon emissions, means less carbon taxing and possibly means less global warming. Up to 4 weeks at one hour a day, which is a max of 40 hours. Would also suggest less heating needed (solar gain in the windows in the evening) Better mental Health Stimulate the economy as people more likley to be out and about Increase health as more likley to excercise in March, e.g. walk home etc. Also more vitamin D Safer for kids and vulnerable people from a security point of view walking home in the light over dusk/dark And much better for mental health getting sunlight

On the BST. Why is it we change on the last weekend in October, about 7 weeks give or take a day or two before 21st December and then don't change back 7 or 8 weeks later. I can't understand why we have to wait until the end of March. It wastes electricity in the evenings. The Americans now change early March isstead of late March. A chang to early March would also have the benefit of making it "feel" more spring like as the evenings would be longer. I live in Ireland so we have to do wht the UK does for business reasons I assume. Please petition your MP.

I don't post much but do look at the models. I don't contribute to the Output Model discussion as I am in agreement with the sensible posters and don't have anything further to say. I can't understand why someone would post a lengthy post that mirrors the 4 previous posts? And I don't know why someone who hasn't a clue would post on the Model Thread. Anyway as I live in Ireland I can post here. Anyway - this weekend doesn't look good for snow below 300 to 400m. But you never know, inland on a brisk wind it might deliver to the norther half. I woudld say with such sustained blocking on the models - all be it constantly pushed out 240 hrs for an esaterly, it would mean that we will get at least one more major easterly. I suspect snow will be a threat right into end of MArch this year. What I am interested in is how this affects the Summer. You can read all you want about the top guys predicting this winter, but until the end most predicted a mild one. I would love to hear thoughts on how this unusal Winter is expected to effect the Summer. There should be some pointers from the past. Not saying set in stone that a blocked winter will provide a certain Summer, but the causes of the clod winter may have an impact on the following Summer. I could not take another very wet Irish Summer on top of all our other worries

I'm looking forward to it yes as late Spring is my favourite time of the year for many reasons. Looks very likley to be wintry for the next 2 to 3 weeks which I can take, but a cold March is the pits as you are more likley to be out and about in it with Gardening and longer day light and just more activity. I always find the cold northerly/Easterly winds in Spring more difficult to take. A heavily blocked winter like this, does this signal any particular Spring early Summer weather we might expect?