Downburst
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Posts posted by Downburst
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Real measure for me is seeing dust on the roads. The roads are real dry, they look bright and shiny. Not often it's this dry in January in my memory anyway. Loving it. Actually see a forsythia flower on a bush, just the one flower and snowdrops well up but not in flower yet not far away from them. I could actually cut the grass but won't. I'm loving this dry weather without any wind.
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Week after next surface pressure anomalies (for the entire weekly mean)
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It's followed by a resurgence of high pressure, with the following week showing that possibly moving north west, I think dry and hopefully sunny for the time of year looking at precipitation anomaly.
However, next week is the one chance I'd suspect of proper cold this January, with it gradually warming up. I think we may well have a dry spell end Jan well into February.
To add a rare at this time of frantic posts I put in December 19, to show the usefulness of these charts as a guide for probabilities
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12z GFS has produced this daughter low for mid next week that stops the wedge and heights, its plausible, but wasn't really on the 06z run or the latest ECM. Still in of itself something like this might dump a lot of snow, but I don't believe it yet. As others have said this run is just trying it's best in a complex environment and FI is absolutely 5 days max as is always the case with cold.
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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:
I'm not sure how accurate the precip charts are off UKMET but I've looked and it's basically dry with a smattering off snow N Scotland
144 as an example..
Totally agree, we will have to see some actual snow at some stage given the current setup or else, I don't know. I'll scream. It was a frenzy in here during that run, but pressure was high and it didn't look like anything, except perhaps if it ran further, which it doesn't ECM up next which should give guidance after 180, in FI though.
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At this stage I'd like to see some actual precipitation of the wintry type in the reliable, don't know about anyone else, but a northerly at the end of a run typically gets watered down in my view over the years. So the UKMO is excellent, but like ICON the next 7 days remain very dry, we have to wait to see the ECM to see post 180 hrs and what might happen, and that is FI.
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Without that low nearing here, too far south, as the ICON shows it's drier than a witches.. to the end of the run, post that showers likely incoming. show depth chart to end of run from today. So need a source of precipitation.
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2 minutes ago, Sky Full said:
Oh what a beauty! Pity it’s still in FI but we can dream, can’t we?
It's a pretty reasonable possibility with this undercut low, it's certainly happened before and looks a good one to watch.
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Yep, the black ice this morning putting the bins out was lethal, a drizzly rain on the frozen footpath, never known it to be as bad or as hard to spot. No salt stored, should have just picked some up when I saw it, but as soon as I buy something like that the weather turns.
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Well it is cold, that is for sure, next 4 days about 2 to 4 degrees colder than normal, a brief return to normal and then possible return to 2 to 4 below normal based on the mean ECM run.
The MAD thread is more about getting excited about each run then the output really. If I was to use the 00 CM run mean in there I'd be run out of it as that is the previous run, it's all about the latest run and assuming that the +7 or 8 day chart is now correct. Just fun for folks really. I can't be inputting in there as I've nothing to say that hasn't been said at this time of year
a typical chart for this week
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11 hours ago, Downburst said:
There's a sense of a little bullying (perhaps too strong a word) from at least one of the long term posters to anyone new that raises their head. I've been on here 15 years and have seen some great posters disappear and the same old one have a right go at anyone who might know their stuff. Pity really, not much the mods can do I suppose at the popular time of the year. The internet allows people who aren't necessarily popular in "real" life to find a niche where they are and they'll find a way to keep that popularity. In the long run the site becomes destructive, so expert moderation is called for to allow change in thoughts and some learning.
I’m labouring the point, but a recent case. I posted the 46 day ECMWF from Reading. It gets overwhelming derision in favour of the 4 day GFS operational as it’s not part of the immediate output, that’s understandable just for the excitement of rolling the dice, I’m sympathetic to that. But as the day went on, and I’m not either capable nor bothered to post this, but over the last week I realised that end of January was shaping up, or is I should say, to high chance of northern blocking. When I see the 46 day chart and some met office muttering I share a quick post with the mod thread, near zero interest. I have both a maths and computer science degree and I’ve enough time after working 28 years in tech to enjoy myself in my own interests, but forgive that aspect. Then Tamara posts a little obliquely what I had considered and it’s hats off. Then i see the same experts, not Tamara, consider sunspots as the new QBO or MJO mystery, sunspots I’ve studied as I was initially intrigued 15 years ago and in order to not be foolish with my peers I soon found out they have less than 1% significance to weather. Newton the greatest physicist I’m my view pondered them. It was at this moment and some of the experts comments on this that I have decided after 15 years of fun for me on this site I’m leaving it. I can’t be bothered not learning and reading txt speak from nrtwestsnow or whatever, and since the introduction of likes and promotion of toxic egos by the owners it’s not for me. I have access to the charts etc. so thanks to eye from the skys, born from the void, John Holmes’s and many others from the good times on here. Don’t accept toxicity and don’t allow the mods delete your valid posts. They are making a living from you being here, rebel always folks if you want to survive.
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58 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
Quite agree with you! A lot of people ridicule others with regard to this line of thought. A lot more work/ research has to be done on solar output, but I’m in agreement that these solar cycles have a lot more to how the weather behaves around the planet than what is given credit for……
Well accurate solar spot info goes back to 1650 or so doesn't it? Very easy to do reanalysis I would expect. I'll keep an open mind of course, but hope any thoughts on this are based on scientific principles and not simply because of the immense magnitude of the sun, which can lead people into correlations that don't necessarily exist.
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32 minutes ago, LRD said:Yep. And then when anyone dares go against the 'positive' grain they're often jumped on
On the flip side there are also some trolls who love to wind people up so, to an extent, it works both ways. Feel sorry for the mods who have to police it all. And I say that as someone who has crossed swords with them on a couple of occasions
There's a sense of a little bullying (perhaps too strong a word) from at least one of the long term posters to anyone new that raises their head. I've been on here 15 years and have seen some great posters disappear and the same old one have a right go at anyone who might know their stuff. Pity really, not much the mods can do I suppose at the popular time of the year. The internet allows people who aren't necessarily popular in "real" life to find a niche where they are and they'll find a way to keep that popularity. In the long run the site becomes destructive, so expert moderation is called for to allow change in thoughts and some learning.
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3 minutes ago, Dan B said:
For those in the know; can the recent volcanic eruptions cause any changes in our weather in the very near future?
No, not this type and size. The 2021 eruption for all the news it got covered 4.8 square KM with fresh lava for instance and like this one was not an eruption into the atmosphere. Of course the modern internet press system will have us in lockdown and scared to fly, but we know that's how it works nowadays. Some day though, you never know.
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Hopefully this post isn't deleted
.There is good evidence the 2nd half of January being conductive to a chance of Greenland heights. It's a good sign and isn't heavily zonal. And unlike the current position, the lead up to which showed high pressure anomalies too far south all along, which we ended up with, the weight of output is showing more northerly blocking. Might get something very wintry mid to end of January.
Thats a 75% against +NAO mid to end January in my book.
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Reading the Model thread and I can't understand why my post was "hidden" earlier (that means deleted) when I posted on the long term chances of a backloaded winter
Some of the superfluous one liners etc about Christmas dinners and all the rest on there, when some take their time to research and the mods just delete? But don't delete some posts that are very far removed from model discussion. I wonder why?
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It says a lot about the winter weather we get now that looking 10 days ahead the only chance of as much a tiny frost is at Day 10, happens to be Christmas morning mind you, for about 3 hours before warming up as the day goes on. Won't happen exactly like this of course, but the yearly temperature record is going to be broken for sure now, can't see it being missed, that will be a mean annual of over 11 Celsius for Ireland.
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It’s spring like in the garden this morning. Grass looks remarkably green and happy for time of year, everything including the grass is dry, although cloudy it’s bright with a southerly wind. Just a light pullover needed. Should really take advantage of it but I’m feeling lazy and in that weird indecision mode us humans get into
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2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:
Last one from me tonight but I think ec46 has pushed back the Atlantic
yesterdsy versus today
Yes, that’s interesting for sure. Not the normal setup that’s for sure, most winters let’s not forget it’s all blue. To your earlier point on the 46 day and into January. There’s a very high chance as winter progresses for very cold outbreaks from north and north east and there is ever increasing building block evidence for that.
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3 minutes ago, jellybaby1969 said:
Yes away from any concentrated population !!
They can concentrate in the highlands too you know
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Just now, northwestsnow said:
The uppers are 0/-1
The air is coming from the east in a slack flow at your approx location. You don’t need -5 850s for a frost, far from it. In fact you can have +5 and above 850 and an ice day. BTW, any chance of consolidating the odd post to make this shared thread readable for everyone, I enjoy all your posts, but numerous one liners is hard work when catching up etc.
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1 hour ago, Catacol said:
From publicly available sources:
ECMWF budget for 2022/23 = £54.7m (member states) + £43.7m (Externals) + £12.9m (Data sales). Total = £111.3m
Key facts and figures | ECMWF
WWW.ECMWF.INT
An overview of who we are can be found in the Who we are section. Below, we offer a breakdown of some of the essential facts relating to our work (as of August 2023).Bureau of Meterology (Australia) budget for 2022/23 = $345.5m (Govt funding) + $98.8m (Source income). Total = $443.3 Aus.
Now - this doesn't quite tell the whole story because ECMWF is purely focusing on computer modelling while the BOM is an agency with a much broader remit. There is nothing in public data to ascertain what % of their $443.3m is spent on modelling as opposed to other projects they undertake, but still it is a misrepresentation to claim that BOM is a small scale local operation compared to the giant that is ECMWF.
And to deny the relevance of location is to deny the human condition. We are all more concerned with what is at our back door. BOM runs their MJO forecast twice daily. ECM once daily. Evidence, should you need it.
Finally - the evidence on accuracy was carefully laid out in a previous post. I don't think anyone said BOM "will be more accurate" - instead the evidence shows that BOM comes second to ECM. In modelling the recent MJO phase 4 - 5 transition BOM outperformed ECM in forecasts provided at the end of November.
The ECMWF pools from 35 member countries that have their own funding and met organisations and budgets, do we add those up, including the UK, France and Germany etc, in addition to the funding ringfenced for ECMWF. I poorly expressed it perhaps. To compare the budgets doesn't consider the function of course and I have no idea of BOM other than the recent amplification. With regards to the MJO I'll stick to the ECMWF.
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1 hour ago, Catacol said:
Really? I assume you are referring to the predicted. Through phases 4 and 5 BOM was more accurate than the others. Let's wait and see whether the phase 7/8/1 ends up being COD as ECM had it or more amplified as BOM predicted. Jury is still out there.
What's odd to my eye at the moment is that the bias corrected ECM is reducing the amplitude of the op runs. That is weird. Reading up on this, the bias corrected is designed to try and cope with the inaccuracy of modelling through the MC where often the models under read the signal. To have ECM bias going down runs against that. By contrast BOM bias corrected is going the other way. An interesting mini case study while we wait for this holding period to end.
I'm sorry Catacol, but given the unquestionable professionalism and funding to hire the best talent and resources in capital, whatever that is the ECMWF have. I am very sceptical of any notion of inherent inaccuracies in their models for something as fundamental as MJO. Obviously I take your bias correction point in hand, and they may well apply that in given cases, but I assume they do that highly accurately. In any case I was asking sensible questions of the disparity with the MJO forecasts last week and was told, the Australians live in the region and their model will be more accurate
. A strange coupling of location and mathematics I hadn't been of aware of previously. I think the bias is very much in seeing the model we want to be true myself.
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4 minutes ago, SunnyG said:
Tomorrow???? But the all models say it's gonna be mild all over the UK
He said the 26th
don't worry it will be mild tomorrow.
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It's quite obviously a zonal setup for now. Maybe the week between the big day and New years some transitory cold from the north, especially with height and the normal locations, but that's more than 10 days away.
I am still looking at the seasonals and I am confident we will get at least one notable cold outbreak Jan to March period, more especially February or March.
Better add a chart for March from the C3S (this is a professional body) (note be prepared to be attacked by the experts here, but here we go, picking March shamelessly as it's the best signal, but there is good reason given the background setup. A chart like this gives a good chance of a 2018 type event
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Moans, ramps and banter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Where you flying to then? Morocco maybe