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Downburst

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  1. Downburst
    The Jet position and strength on recent runs is something to behold. But some signs at the end of the GFS 00 run of it relaxing and perhaps we can get a few settled frosty days sometime last third November? the 46 day ECM is showing rainfall back to climate norm by then. Total FI, but end of 00 GFS Jet this time next week on latest GFS is in no mood to be messed with. As the week progresses it begins to buckle and the following week although to our south there is ridging into the north west Atlantic The most recent 46 day ECM might also indicate a change and perhaps allow some surface highs move west to east.
  2. Downburst
    On Sea Surface, the one place that the temp seems to have fallen for the period compared to previous monthlies is around these waters and west into NA. Is this the train of westerlies overturning the ocean surface? I'm wondering if we are going to get some very notable storms this winter. Might be one of those winters, relaxing as January ends.
  3. Downburst
    There are two blue lines confusing me a little, can't tell the difference. If I am right then are you interested in the CFS outputting a reversal in early December? That would be very interesting to watch.
  4. Downburst
    Latest seasonal, temps higher and precipitation higher. No surprises here.- Over 3 months as a whole slightly warmer, slightly wetter. But this doesn't discount cold outbreaks at all or for the end of the season being different. Probably pointless posting as if it's not showing blocking and arctic conditions it's not going to be believed at this time.
  5. Downburst
    Any long range that predicts blocking later in the winter is a disaster for this thread. The case in December and January and into February let downs on these threads is always accompanied by a “I always said we’d get blocking in late winter early spring” when December ends, then again end January this keeps the trend going, QBO etc. to a dying death April 10th or so. I love the LRF, but know they are means and I simply expect the unexpected at anytime and that unexpected to be transitory. I couldn’t give a expletive about teleconnections as they guarantee nothing. So it’s the LRF mean, interesting for overall likely experience, the 46 day is useful for suggestions on what the 10 day may be building to in FI, adds weight to FI basically. But that’s it.
  6. Downburst
    Just logged in. Almost no rain on the radar. Are they broken? Will there be a meeting of Cobra?
  7. Downburst
    What happened to January also. It’s extraordinarily meh. When was the last 4 to 5 day freeze in January. I think once in my 50 years in Ireland anyway. I know eastern England and maybe Scotland get somewhat colder weather sometimes, but settled highs in January are so rare I can’t remember one.
  8. Downburst
    Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war!
  9. Downburst
    Year so far for Ireland to end October. Can we make it 5 in a row.
  10. Downburst
    Yes, looking at the ECM Operational for Saturday next, talk about a thin end of the wedge. The oddest looking surface Azores high ridge up into the arctic. Naturally this doesn't inspire me as a likely outcome, but at least it's trying and something may be afoot.
  11. Downburst
    Ciarain seems to have sucked all the water vapour available into it. Let's hope that has a knock on effect
  12. Downburst
    Yes indeed
  13. Downburst
    Wow, is that a Martello towner? Napoleonic defence, lots of them on the coast in Ireland, certainly built to withstand the weather.
  14. Downburst
    Some extraordinary gusts at 08:00 northern France. 62 mph is 100km And how about a 21.1 or near 70 foot wave, about twice the size of a large two story house
  15. Downburst
    Halloween as you know well of course is the Celtic Samhain (pronounced sowan in english) festival and then once Christianity came it was all souls etc. Anyway it is of course linked to the seasons and those clever druids knew all this too well and basically said, to hell with this lets have a party as the next few months are going to be terrible, the gates of the underworld are opening to this weather. Feels like it last night in the channel islands I'd say.
  16. Downburst
    How many roofers and general builders on that island? Then think how hard it is to find a competent one anywhere, much less else on an island. Just how will the people get help quickly enough to prevent more damage and get enough insurance assessors. Really is terrible. I had roofers up recently for a survey and had them fix absolutely anything they saw even slightly not perfect, I was able to get up the scaffolding myself to oversee etc. This tragedy for these poor folks is a reminder to all that in this climate you need a sound roof, all roofs need attention, they never get better on their own and even if all else falls apart at least you have the proverbial roof over your head. In this case the feeling these people have today is not that. Heads up and lets see what help they get, including hopefully flying out teams of volunteers to work it
  17. Downburst
    Thanks for letting us know On the Storm, looking at 20 to 30 feet swell hitting channel Island peaking about 06:00 in the morning. Swell will dissipate after that. May be some extraordinary pictures and film captured as sun rise 06:55
  18. Downburst
    well worth looking at the buoy reports https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/observations/ you have to figure which ones to watch etc. but you can see what's going out there. Prediction of 10m plus waves up the channel, that's 30+ feet to tackle.
  19. Downburst
    4.00 pm And as seen by our alien overlords
  20. Downburst
    Thought I'd ask in here as a storm is being mentioned. I am out with a few friends in the English channel, the captain left in the dingy earlier. Do you think the waves will be high later? Before you answer though quick question, what's a rudder and is it bad if it's broken? thanks in advance.
  21. Downburst
    No, many places still have cohesive societies and Channel Islands is one place, very popular destination for that and other reasons.
  22. Downburst
    Looking at the spread for the Mean 10 meter Wind speed Thursday morning and as one expects a spread still on the south coast England, but it's only about 5 m/s so only about 6 mph I think of a spread in mean speeds. Gusts is what it is all about of course. In many ways won't know more for at least another 36 hours. Bottom line where there is a Amber is the key.
  23. Downburst
    And your ears will pop.
  24. Downburst
    That’s what your hard core weather want’s you to think.
  25. Downburst
    951 mb smack over Ireland 06:00 Thursday morning on ECM. Storm force 10 on the south coast. Fills then and might go north, but lots to work out with further runs to come.
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