Downburst

We have the ability to work this out without Orwellian nightmares. The planet can sustain a very healthy human population, perhaps 200 million, it has to be planned though with demand and supply in harmony sustainably, without hassle at a non replacement birth-rate of 1 children for two adults this can be achieved in 200 years. At the moment we have the main BBC (middle class London) Climate journalist who has by all his accounts got it solved he is constantly on TV plugging in his electric car, looking down his nose and others. Sometimes interviewed on his kitchen with the fair trade coffee. You get the picture of what has to change, why is he driving this? Government needs to work on this honestly and at a UN level and it needs honest explanation to the masses world wide. The masses are not Guardian reading BBC journalists and they aren't as stupid as that ilk might think. Politicians are happy for him to take the lead and are shying off, of course many are in the pocket of the corporations. As posters say above, replacing an oak with it's 200 plus insects and countless fungi in the soil with a few birch is where the current capitalist solution is and they are getting away with it. An ancient forest in northern europe will never be replicated by developers. Start here, no you can't f'ing well cut those trees, do so and pay the true price, replace with the true flora and fauna you destroyed. If the true cost was levied they'd put away the chain saws, law could be passed in months for this. WE know the science here already, not as if we don't know this. Sheep: Highlands of UK and Ireland (and they aren't high really) were once forested. They were cut down by early farmers and quickly flooded after with peat building since (sphagnum moss). Now they are sheep farmed with the help of drainage works or worse massive estates owned by landords for shooting. This entire area needs to be forested again. Just because I rent or own and farm for 5 generations, does not mean my son or daughter has to inherit and be subsidised by society to work sheep unproductively with financial help. Why not say a shop keepers child should get subsidies since the shop was mutigenerational, who says they have the talent for it? Need a change in thinking here, pay them off and get on with rewilding now. Some areas of natural bog can be integrated. It's exciting the opportunities in front of us. It's the leadership that is lacking.

The answer is we haven't seen this before, not in recorded civilization. I won't go into the indicators, but one example is the pollen records in the bogs go back approx. 8,000 to 10,000 years. A very good source of the climate conditions in Europe. I know a fair bit about that. Ice core data etc. Lots of good proxies. But can I say this to type of responses of "the climate is always changing" which is correct, it is always changing. But not this fast and here is the crucial bit, not in this current socio economic condition of 8 billion people, most of who couldn't adapt or have the skill to survive outside buying "food" in Tescos. There is a serious risk of extreme land loss in the the river delta areas of major cities, of Florida and the like, of heavy glacial melt and farming land loss. In 70 years how will the like of Egypt with 80 million survive? WIll they move north? Bangladesh? It's too much for the coping classes (99% of us) to take in and it's too hard for politicians to accept the lack of votes they will get to take reactive or corrective measures. It could well be an end to the last 7000 year period for humans and a reset with a smaller population and more sensible ways to use the planet, a higher standard of living for all, but a population in say 200 years of a few hundred million, that might be agreed over the coming century, to get to that level. And why not? Why not set a 200 year target for a balanced earth? Why allow the brainless plastic bottle producing through away society be defended. Everyone knows it's totally unsustainable.

I think you’ll find they do on here. All sorts of emotions too, they hang their heads in shame, they go off on one, they exaggerate features. All in all they are temperamental little ensemble runs

If a warning for up to 70mm for mourne mts. Is an improvement than yes

Yes, that may well be a factor. It seems likely the extraordinary heat in the seas during June around here, constant high pressure. Then we had the stuck pattern in the northern hemisphere for about 6 weeks. Will be interesting to see the explanation which I expect should be forthcoming. For me that reduced sulphur from shipping catches my interest. Is it coincidental this is happening just as the reduced particles in the shipping lanes. I mean 8 Billion people now buying all the crap we do, crazy shipping increases as mass production moved to the far east. SO much in your house or office came by ship that didn't 30 to 40 years ago. Take that pollution out of the lower atmosphere and it is a big change. Critical we find out.

UKV in range for Saturday and it's certainly suggesting turning the heating on to the north of England, although not too warm anywhere else thats for sure Upstream and pressure falls over next week in north america, so changes afoot to the general picture. Although heights seem to hang around over Greenland at the end of the ECM, so who knows, my guess is never settled for next two weeks Today Pressure Pattern, look over north america A lot of change by next Tuesday upstream from here, but not enough to the north of here At the end of the run 10 days out the Greenland High is back and steering the trough, to our north west, but not far enough north west, so we need heights to drop in Greenland area really.

I don't think I've seen pressure charts like these before. Very weird looking to my eye. Is this still planet earth atmosphere we are on or some exo planet? weak highs, large lows. lows saying I'll just hang on here if you don't mind.

What is called for is a national, UK and Ireland day that can be called in months like this. Something along the lines of a sport in a muddy field, or that crazy cheese rolling thing, or bog snorkling, use your imagination. There could be a home nations tournament and it could be televised. Something to make some fun and use of the rain and saturated ground. Remember Murry Walker doing the rally cross int the 80's. Something to lift the mood is what is needed, as the vast majority of people are sick of it and need to laugh at it somehow.

Odd how life has to change with this weather. I am now leaving umbrellas behind where ever I go. A new thing to have to bring with me. Phone, wallet, keys and now umbrella. that all has to come home too. Lost a pair of glasses int the garden, went to opticians this morning, left umbrella behind. Both these objects are hard to keep. I blame the weather.

I can attest to that. I can also attest to the fact that without question you get people saying Seattle is the same as here. It isn't. Summer is dry and warmer, remarkably so compared to say the "semi arid, hotter than "insert package holiday location" London.

The main thing for me is that there is a change signalled 7 to 10 days out, and to be honest this is not surprising as we've exhausted this particular atmospheric setup. it can't last for ever. Get this week over with This looks nice, it's been a while that you could even post a chart like this from ECM.

Tuesday 8th midday on latest ecm. The high to the west is centered slightly more south than on the 00 run, but at least it’s there and we have high pressures to discuss. Can’t wait as this time next week we might have a lot of light to discuss at the end of this tunnel we are in.

I keep reading in the news and elsewhere about this "super" EL Nino. The El Nino at present is "weak" and is not coupled to the atmosphere to make much if any difference. From NOAA El Niño conditions are observed.* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The tropical Pacific atmospheric anomalies are consistent with weak El Niño conditions. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter. It is expected to be moderate to strong, or 1.5 to 2.0 Yet we are being told it will be the warmest ever in the press etc? Looking back over 70 years, one can see a pattern that long La Nina does not bode well for subsequent strong El Nino. But the press expect everything to be bigger, larger and more dangerous, so I suppose it follows that this winter will be the coldest? or even the warmest? I can see this to be a total average El Nino, 1.5 to 2.0 this winter.

Is that a Trachycarpus Fortunei in your profile picture? I have a couple of them in the garden. Tropical

This is what December would be like without Christmas. The Aussies and South Africans have Christmas in their winter, but indeed it’s actually in what we’d describe as summer, where we are having anti Christmas this July. Is it any wonder we are considered quite mad by foreign standards. Last year on a hike in the desert an Arab was very insistent we’d both die, I said to him one more kilometre about 3 or 4 times times as i marvelled at the lack of humidity and how comfortable it felt, like a snug blanket to my bones, to him I was mad.

I totally hear you Azazel. It’s going to get better though. It won’t rain like this all the time and there will be many a sunny day between now and late autumn that will feel perfect. Just know that the majority understand how you are feeling, even if some don’t fully understand, we do care and acknowledge how this feels for you. Everyone is down with it and it might appear people are coping but they are really struggling. Let me tell you a secret that might make you smile. I was outside earlier and got my hair wet. It felt wet when I got in and I swept it back and it felt real soft. I then remembered as a child a woman from Cornwall used to live up the road and she’d wash her face with rainwater as it was soft water. She was very spiritual and also used to wash her face with dew from the grass, preferably with spiders webs on it.So I just collected a basin of rain water and will do a ritual wash of my head before bed tonight along with a shave in memory of her and consider it a blessing sent from her, who has long since passed. That will make me smile.

My word. Rained, light rain, since lunch time here after a dull morning. Then from 6 pm intensified and now thunder. I’m officially calling this the worst July in my lifetime, I was very busy 2007 to 2012 and don’t remember anything of those years. But having worked my garden on my own for 10 years I’m stupefied by this. It’s bloody weird even for Ireland. I’m north of Dublin and we get 750 mm in a full year. I reckon it’ll be 25% of the full year this month at this rate. I’m driven to drink in the evening in the last week and I’ve never had alcohol in my life during the working week. I know it sounds like a panic and over reaction but I just hate this. In the winter I could draw the curtains, it’s July for heavens sake.

Is chicken the only thing on the menu? If so I’ll have the leg please.

And where would the Jet Stream be? I mean what kind of pressure pattern would this be. Would we have a very large polar vortex enlarge in winter and the polar front move much closer to here. Absulte nightmare thoughts on this one to be honest. Recent summary report of Irelands 30 year 1960 to 1990 and 1990 to 2020 comparison. Mean Temps increase 7.6% and Rainfall mean is an increase 7%. http:// https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/93cbad5530054f58a6246a44920aa3f3

Friday august 4 on latest ECM and there is signs of a ridge from the Azores. Now it’s admittedly on shaky ground but it’s there the 500 pattern is looking good in my view and is showing, at least on the operational, a change in long wave pattern, troughs to the west south of Greenland is nice

240 hrs on 12 z ECM and it’s more of the same, especially next weekend. But end of the run, not cleared out that low to the north, flabby high knocking around to sw. the 500 and 850 temps. These are very low 850s indeed for first week in august, 4 to 8 Celsius, surface will of course be 15 to 20 to low 20’s Temps Rainfall, with red 50 to 100mm for scale, I can look forward to at least 50 more mm. expecting the month of July to end about half a foot lol, need to bring out old money at these scales.

It's very poor weather and I would imagine 90% of people would agree to that. I believe July will be the wettest month here since Jan 2020 for instance, getting on 4 years. I mean near a 5th of total annual rainfall in one month. Also, the rampant over reaction to the heat in parts of the Mediterranean by the press is not helping peoples mood. As ever , people are simply not as stupid as the likes of the BBC news (which as I have said before is now more childish than John Cravens Newsround was when I was a kid) thinks. Yes they get that climate change is real, yes they get some max temp are being broken and there are wild fires, but they have enough to cope with with a lack of summer weather now and here. They don't won't total misery 24x7 on the weather situation elsewhere, when the Greeks are wondering what the hell the BBC is at?. The paper of record in Ireland, always able to look down it's nose a the great unwashed asks "Is the Mediterranean Holiday a thing of the past"? I give up, I really do. Why not ask where is the emergency building of more carbon free energy, what we are doing? Why pick on working class people and deliberately sensationalize things, "Horror, and holiday from hell and the rest.

Yes, will next weekend be the 4th in a row very unsettled? 12 z GFS certainly showing that, although might not be more than showery rather than washout. July 2023 certainly not one to cherish for the weather for me.

Another thing. I work in the sciences and have that background and education and have a 30 year career behind me. Antropomorphism is related to attributing human attributes to animals, we all get that and are typically very tolerant of it, myself no less than anyone. Well my point is on teleconnections in weather forecasting. It seems all analysis attempts to draw conclusions that are centered on these islands, the British isles. ENSO and QBO and Indian Ocean oscillations and the rest. My honest opinion is it’s a total waste of time to even consider these for this neck of the woods. It really is. The uk met office try’s it’s best and I have total respect for that organisation and yet we had that summer forecast, and I know it was a probability forecast, but I don’t like probabilistic science as it’s too unresolved. So until it’s resolved you can take it and put it up your…as for the cryptic muttering of some, again, up your Jacksie until you can express yourself in plain English. And another thing, never talk down to people while you are at the muttering.

Slight drizzle this morning, then out for a walk on the beach, overcast but dry and very humid. But since this evening it’s horrendous rain. What’s worse is the gutters were cleaned and some drips fixed at some joints on Friday, I was relieved as the guys did a quick survey of the roof as they had roof ladders and we agreed on some fixes, otherwise alls well. Roll on 3 hours and they are long gone, in the evening I was out with a bucket on my deck as the leak has now moved and is pouring out water, the down pipe is now fully blocked. Bloody well sick and tired of this weather. For god sake folks prioritise your roof and gutters above all else. It’s worse than a bad November to be honest as you can’t draw the curtains, kind of have to watch it. Not feeling great this evening. Thinking I might spend some time abroad in a few years, Nevada or South Africa and god knows how I’ve changed over the lasT two weekends even Spain. I’m pretty much certain these are the worst July weekends in my memory.