Nick F, on 13 January 2013 - 10:19 , said:
First band of ppn arriving in the wee hours should hopefully be snow, though probably light in nature - but enough for a dusting.
Very marginal for the second band of precipitation moving down tomorrow afternoon/evening - GFS suggests DPs wrong side of 0C for much of the SE, as we see the warm sector in close proximity sliding SE mixing in less cold air/higher DPs:
pdp_m15.png
pdp_m18z.png
... though 0C line following the ppn, so perhaps some back edge snow.
NAE at Monday 18z:
NAE_m18z.gif
Would say North Home Counties best chance for snow at lower levels, Chilterns and Downs likely to see snow too.
However, very marginal, so heavy ppn/evaporative cooling could tip the balance in favour of snow to lower levels ... usual case of nowcasting!
Good post Nick, shows that we shouldn't get too excited over 'upgrades' nor disheartened over 'downgrades'. Nowcasting word of the day today/tomorrow! Hoping my reasonable elevation (127m) and proximity to the Chilterns will help!
P.s. just bought NW Extra radar, well worth a few quid for the weather we have coming up over the next few weeks.