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Stamford Bobby

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Posts posted by Stamford Bobby

  1. snapback.pngNick F, on 13 January 2013 - 10:19 , said:

    First band of ppn arriving in the wee hours should hopefully be snow, though probably light in nature - but enough for a dusting.

    Very marginal for the second band of precipitation moving down tomorrow afternoon/evening - GFS suggests DPs wrong side of 0C for much of the SE, as we see the warm sector in close proximity sliding SE mixing in less cold air/higher DPs:

    attachicon.gifpdp_m15.png

    attachicon.gifpdp_m18z.png

    ... though 0C line following the ppn, so perhaps some back edge snow.

    NAE at Monday 18z:

    attachicon.gifNAE_m18z.gif

    Would say North Home Counties best chance for snow at lower levels, Chilterns and Downs likely to see snow too.

    However, very marginal, so heavy ppn/evaporative cooling could tip the balance in favour of snow to lower levels ... usual case of nowcasting!

    Good post Nick, shows that we shouldn't get too excited over 'upgrades' nor disheartened over 'downgrades'. Nowcasting word of the day today/tomorrow! Hoping my reasonable elevation (127m) and proximity to the Chilterns will help!

    P.s. just bought NW Extra radar, well worth a few quid for the weather we have coming up over the next few weeks.

  2. First band of ppn arriving in the wee hours should hopefully be snow, though probably light in nature - but enough for a dusting.

    Very marginal for the second band of precipitation moving down tomorrow afternoon/evening - GFS suggests DPs wrong side of 0C for much of the SE, as we see the warm sector in close proximity sliding SE mixing in less cold air/higher DPs:

    post-1052-0-24786900-1358072055_thumb.pn

    post-1052-0-50675600-1358072092_thumb.pn

    ... though 0C line following the ppn, so perhaps some back edge snow.

    NAE at Monday 18z:

    post-1052-0-78573700-1358072208_thumb.gi

    Would say North Home Counties best chance for snow at lower levels, Chilterns and Downs likely to see snow too.

    However, very marginal, so heavy ppn/evaporative cooling could tip the balance in favour of snow to lower levels ... usual case of nowcasting!

    Good post Nick, shows that we shouldn't get too excited over 'upgrades' nor disheartened over 'downgrades'. Nowcasting word of the day today/tomorrow! Hoping my reasonable elevation (127m) and proximity to the Chilterns will help!

    P.s. just bought NW Extra radar, well worth a few quid for the weather we have coming up over the next few weeks.

  3. Yes excellent forecast Nick, just what most of us "lurkers" and eager learners are looking for. Will be interesting to see if todays precip makes it to my area before running out of steam. Enjoying reading the forum through this spell, especially the the opinions of all the regulars.

    Fingers crossed for Peterborough midweek so TEITS can get his snow at last! :cold:

  4. BA test flight is about to take off shortly according to Sky news. I would think they'll have a camera by the runway.

    On the subject of resuming flights, my wife is stuck in Romania but I wouldn't want her to fly back until the experts say it's safe. I can't trust the CEO of KLM who can see his share dividend disappearing before his eyes!

    edit: It's just taken off, see www.radarvirtuel.com

  5. Im not saying im an "expert" on this but Ive posted some charts from the latest gfs Jetstream and unfortunately shows the Uk in line for Volcanic ash all next week thats if it keeps erupting! I would imagine the jetstream being a high level wind will be the one to watch over the coming days,the jet does look like changing direction in about a weeks time ,"if" the model is correct...I hope that helps!!

    Thanks for your opinion, seems to be the general concensus so I'd say you're probably right.

  6. Morning all,

    I've come here for some expert advice!!! Can anyone tell me if the models are showing whether the wind direction over the next few days will blow this volcanic ash cloud away? My wife is stuck in Romania and is on a flight for thursday, but tv forecasters seem to be avoiding making any predictions.

    From what I've read on here it seems we are in a northerly for a few more days.

    Apologies if this is off-topic, but it kind of is related to the models! :good:

    Thanks

  7. Morning all,

    great pics of the eruption. However I can't get over excited as my wife is stuck in Romania at the moment! Her flight was cancelled yesterday and she's been placed on a flight on Thursday. Trouble is I'm getting concerned that even then there will be no flights across Europe. This ash cloud isn't moving very quickly! As Koldweather said earlier in the thread, "can't see much flight activity before Thursday".

    Anyone care to forecast whether the wind will clear the stuff before then? We need to decide whether she should get on a train or bus!

    Thanks!

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